82 F. average high on June 27.
81 F. high on June 27, 2014.
.02" rain fell yesterday at MSP International Airport
June 28, 1876: The latest ice breakup in Duluth. Source: NOAA.
"Paul, will it rain at 10 PM sharp when the rock group 'Boston' takes the stage?" I had tickets for the Lake Jams concert so I had a vested interest in getting this right. "The HRRR model brings a squall line in right around that time" I answered. I'm 75 percent sure it's going to rain, 60 percent threat of severe winds and hail." Are you SURE, my friend insisted. "No, I'm never sure. Most days it comes down to a strong gut feel."
It's a sobering realization but with summer storms (15 miles wide - lasting about an hour, on average) it's still impossible to determine whether it will rain at a specific location and time. We deal in statistics & probabilities, which is frustrating (for everyone). The models are improving but the forecast will never be perfect.
Just incrementally less bad.
An unstable sky keeps showers and T-storms in the forecast today and tomorrow; the best chance of getting wet closer to the dinner hour when the atmosphere is most unstable.
Highs push into the 80s for 4th of July festivities with plenty of sun. I see a chance of 90s early next week as superheated air pushes in from the western USA. But no extended heat waves are brewing - just a taste.
* The Star Tribune has more details on damage reports here.
Photo credit above: "Proton arc over Lake Superior by Ken William, Clio, MI."
Photo credit above: "This black goop is what will be at the heart of the next generation of batteries." (Kieran Kesner for Quartz)
TODAY: Partly sunny. More showers & T-storms likely by afternoon/evening. Winds: NW 10. High: 79
SUNDAY NIGHT: Lingering thundershowers evening hours, drying out late. Low: 65
MONDAY: Sunny start, late PM storms. High: 82
TUESDAY: More sun, probably dry. Wake-up: 66. High: 81
WEDNESDAY: Another round of showers, T-storms. Wake-up: 63. High: 75
THURSDAY: Unsettled, few pop-up T-storms. Wake-up: 62. High: 79
FRIDAY: Sticky sun, isolated T-storm. Wake-up: 63. High: 81
SATURDAY: Warm sunshine. Light a candle. Wake-up: 63. High: 82
Extreme Weather In A Changing World: Asking The Right Questions. Extreme weather attribution is an emerging science (how much of a storm's intensity is "natural" vs. impacted by warmer air and ocean water and higher levels of water vapor?). Here's an excerpt from a recent story at UCAR that caught my attention: "...The refrain that the science community has mostly had is that we can't blame any one event on climate change," said NCAR scientist Kevin Trenberth, lead author of the paper. "We want to change that refrain. While you can't blame the whole event on climate change, many times there are aspects of what happened that were magnified by climate change. Even with the same weather event, the rain may be harder, the drought more intense, or the heat waves more severe....”
Photo credit above: "
It's Time For Conservatives To End The Denial on Climate Change. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at The Washington Post: "...In a recent National Affairs essay, Jim Manzi and Peter Wehner provide an explanation: “The Republican position — either avowed ignorance or conspiracy theorizing — is ultimately unsustainable, but some still cling to it because they believe that accepting the premise that some climate change is occurring as a result of human action means accepting the conclusions of the most rabid left-wing climate activists. They fear, at least implicitly, that the politics of climate change is just a twisted road with a known destination . . . ceding yet another key economic sector to government control...”