83 F. average high on July 2.
74 F. high on July 2, 2014.
July 2, 1989: Softball sized hail near Dorset, and baseball sized hail at Nevis in Hubbard County.
July 2, 1972: Freezing temperatures at Big Falls in Koochiching County. Source: MPX NWS.
"Freedom is nothing but a chance to be better" wrote Albert Camus.
For meteorologists the 4th of July, America's star-spangled birthday bash, is a weather-accident-waiting-to-happen. Many years it rains, some years it storms; according to Dr. Mark Seeley data since 1891 suggests that the 4th of July is Minnesota's wettest holiday.
People have long memories when holiday forecasts go south. I'm still reminded of an especially egregious (borderline wretched) forecast I made in 1978, while still in college. I predicted drizzle for the 4th. It rained (hard) for 8 hours. Picnics and fireworks were washed out, inundated. I think there were reports of flooding. The very definition of a busted forecast, and on a day when EVERYONE wanted to be outside. I'm still reminded of that bust when I see old weather-buddies in Pennsylvania.
Life is a cruel teacher.
With luck I won't be experiencing flashbacks this weekend. Models keep us dry into most of Sunday; highs in the 80s, a dash of humidity to make the lake more inviting, a southerly breeze at 10-15 to lure sailors. As good as it gets in early July - or any month.
We are lucky. The western USA is enduring fires and record heat. So is Europe. Paris hit 103.5F on Wednesday.
Long-range guidance shows us finally heating up the latter half of July. Remember the 90s?
As far as total June rainfall, Melrose (7.99"), Albert Lea (9.09"), and Austin (7.52") reported values that were among the 10 wettest Junes historically..."
Image credit above: "Swaths of red mark where temperatures soared in the Pacific Northwest during an unusually intense early summer heat wave." Credit: earth.nullschool.net.
- The IPCC states that the frequency and duration of heat waves worldwide have increased since 1950.
- Over the past 30 years, the geographic area experiencing extreme summer heat has increased by more than ten-fold.
- Climate change made Russia’s 2010 heat wave five times more likely to occur.
- Record breaking high temperatures have outnumbered lows in the US by two to one. (National Climate Assessment, Ch. 2 figure 2.7, shown below)..."
Photo credit above: "In this Sunday, June 28, 2015 photo provided by The Wenatchee World, a Chelan County Sheriff's deputy races to check that all residents have left their home as flames approach houses at Quail Hollow Lane in Wenatchee, Wash. A wildfire fueled by high temperatures and strong winds roared into the central Washington neighborhood, destroying properties and forcing residents of several hundred homes to flee, authorities said Monday." (Don Seabrook/The Wenatchee World via AP)
Image credit: "Smoke from fires in western Canada is steered south into the U.S. by the jet stream in a satellite image acquired June 29, 2015". Credit: NASA Earth Observatory
Photo credit above: "A plane drops a load of retardant on a wildfire north of Lompoc, California, Monday, June 29, 2015." Image: Len Wood/Lompoc Record via AP/Associated Press.
TODAY: Partly sunny, isolated T-storm north. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 81
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low: 64
4TH OF JULY: Warm sunshine, dry. Winds: SW 10. High: 85
SATURDAY NIGHT: Warm and sticky - still dry. Low: 68
SUNDAY: Sticky sun, T-storms at night. Winds: S/SW 10-20. High: 86
MONDAY: AM T-showers, slow PM clearing. Wake-up: 69. High: near 80
TUESDAY: Sunny, just about perfect with lower humidity. Wake-up: 62. High: 76
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, still dry and comfortable. Wake-up: 58. High: 77
THURSDAY: Sticky, a few stray T-storms. Wake-up: 60. High: 80
* to see a live video stream from the ISS, the International Space Station, check out Urthecast.
Photo credit above: "Alaska’s Columbia glacier is almost 20 kms shorter than it was in 1980." (Wikimedia Commons/ US Fish and Wildlife Service).