84 F. average high on July 13.
78 F. high on July 13, 2014.
4.76" rain so far in July.
1.67" average July rainfall, to date.
+3.09" departure from normal.
Sunday evening I failed an impromptu IQ test, which may not come as much of a shock.
A tornadic storm was bearing down on our cabin near Nisswa; trees were bending over horizontally; you could hear branches snapping off above the roar of the wind. 5-foot whitecaps on the lake looked like mini-tsunamis, shredding our dock. I don't have a basement so I did the next best thing: I stood on the deck, hanging on in defiant amazement - speechless, as nature put on a spectacle no Disney theme park or IMAX movie will ever match.
Not one of my smarter moves. We had tree damage but got off easy compared to so many homeowners nearby. And it's hard posting online weather updates with no power.
Anyone with a pulse knew that severe weather was likely. But then chaos theory kicked in: there's no way to predict which towns, which homes will be hit the hardest. There never will be. As I've said in the past it's an unholy Lotto - the tiny minority of people impacted (severely) while the rest of us look on in sympathy, thanking our lucky stars.
Sunday night's storm seems to fit the definition of a derecho, at least a 240 mile (continuous) damage path. The same supercells that spawned tornadoes near Fergus Falls mutated into straight-line wind storms that congealed into one of these rare, boomerang-shaped storms that is associated with widespread wind damage.
All you can do is hunker down - and stay off your deck!
A lonely pop-up thundershower is possible this afternoon, but less than 10 percent of us will get wet and this time they probably won't be severe. More widespread storms arrive Thursday; by Saturday temperatures may be pushing into the mid-90s.
Get ready a hot, stuffy, occasionally stormy rest-of-July.
* photo upper right courtesy of @msppio_ne.
* According to NOAA SPC it would appear that Sunday night's storm fits the definition of a derecho.
An Irritable Sky. Although not as extreme as Sunday, there was sufficient instability for more thunderstorms to mushroom over central Minnesota and then drift south. The most severe storms blew up across Wisconsin, where a severe storm watch was posted. Monday evening loop: NOAA and AerisWeather.
Thursday: Next Chance of Heavy T-storms. NAM guidance shows an isolated T-shower risk today, mainly Red River Valley, but the next chance of widespread, potentially heavy showers and T-storms will come Thursday. 84-hour guidance: NOAA.
Sloppy Thursday Blues. Based on GFS and NAM guidance a couple inches of rain may fall close to MSP Thursday. 12 KM NAM guidance prints out 1" of rain by 7 AM Thursday with a total of 2.9" by afternoon. I'll believe it when I see it - I think the models are exaggerating how much rain will fall Thursday. Source: AerisWeather.
Seasonably Warm With A Few Hot Spikes. Temperatures cool off to near normal today into Thursday, followed by another warm-up late in the week. ECMWF and GFS guidance are both predicting mid-90s, followed by slight relief Sunday.
Toasty, Not Char-Broiled. Long-range GFS model guidance shows a persistent bubble of high pressure elevating temperatures from the southwest into the southern and central Plains in about 2 weeks. Enough cool air will hiccup out of Canada to prevent extended heat waves over the northern tier states anytime soon. Source: GrADS:COLA/IGES.
Photo credit above: Jeff Wheeler – Star Tribune. "A haze settled in over the Minneapolis skyline one day in early July as smoke from Canadian wildfires drifted across Minnesota, leading to air quality warnings."
TODAY: Clouds build, isolated PM T-shower possible. Winds: North 10. High: 83
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing, a bit more comfortable. Low: 67
WEDNESDAY: Hazy sun, probably dry. Dew point: 63. High: 82
THURSDAY: Showers & T-storms likely. Wake-up: 66. High: 80
FRIDAY: Hot, sticky sun. Dew point: 70. Wake-up: 70. High: 89
SATURDAY: Hottest day with sunshine, feels like 100F? Late T-storm? Wake-up: 75. High: 94
SUNDAY: Slightly cooler, T-showers south. Wake-up: 74. High: 87
MONDAY: Sunny, still pool-worthy. Wake-up: 71. High: 89
Global Warming "To Fuel Migration, Terrorism" AFP and Yahoo News UK has a summary from a new study; here's an excerpt: "Global warming-induced food and water shortages may cause mass migration, competition for resources and state failure, providing fertile ground for conflict and terrorism, analysts warned Monday. In a report entitled: "Climate Change, A Risk Assessment", a global team of scientists, policy analysts and financial and military risk experts painted a grim picture of mankind's future on a much warmer planet..."