81 F. average high on August 12.
80 F. high on August 12, 2014.
August 12, 2000: Record setting dew points in Minnesota. The Twin Cities had a dew point of 76 with a rare 80-degree dew point at Faribault. Source: Twin Cities National Weather Service.
August 12, 1821: The end of an eight-day heat wave at Ft. Snelling. Temperatures were in the 90s each day.
"It's not the heat, it's the humility!" Stupid auto-correct. Sorry. When in doubt blame El Nino - or the dew point, which rises into the drippy 70s the next couple of days. The Swamps of Minnesota!
Before we wave our little white flags of surrender it's helpful to keep some perspective. According to NOAA the Twin Cities have only experienced 28 hours with a heat index above 90F so far in 2015. Average, to date, is closer to 112 hours. When it comes to heat we don't have much to gripe about this year.
Today's hot front may spark an early T-storm - but most of us won't get rained on until Sunday, when the leading edge of cooler air sparks a ripple of showers and T-storms. Assuming the sun is out much of today, Friday and Saturday (a pretty good bet) we should hit or top 90F each day. Factor in an oppressive 70-degree dew point and it should feel like mid to upper 90s for a few hours late Friday, again Saturday - the better day of the weekend to hit the lake or golf course.
The next surge of heat sparks another round of storms and locally heavy rain next Wednesday & Thursday.
A brewing Super El Nino may favor a warm, wet bias into September; another super-sized summer?
Map credit above: "
* For readers fluent in German you can click here to get more information from Stefan Rahmstorf at SciLogs.de, who adds: "This should give a bit of context to the various heat waves happening around the planet this summer. The data clearly show the high incidence of extreme heat is part of a systematic long-term trend, not some black swan. And El Niño only plays a minor part. During 1950-1980, when also lots of El Niños happened, we had nothing like the current levels of extreme heat, which are even during normal years without El Niño much more widespread even than with the massive 1982/83 El Niño."
What If The Yellowstone Supervolcano Erupted. Bend over and kiss your ash goodbye. A plowable amount of volcanic ash would result, along with enough new aerosols in the upper atmosphere to cool the Earth by several degrees and create a temporary nuclear winter, capable of decimating agriculture. Other than that nothing to worry about. To paraphrase comedian George Carlin "...don't sweat the thundershowers!" Here's an excerpt of a fascinatingly sobering explainer at HowStuffWorks: "...The eruption could be expected to kill as many as 90,000 people immediately and spread a 10-foot (3-meter) layer of molten ash as far as 1,000 miles (1,609 kilometers) from the park. Rescuers probably would have a tough time getting in there. The ash would block off all points of entry from the ground, and the spread of ash and gases into the atmosphere would stop most air travel, just as it did when a much smaller volcano erupted in Iceland in 2010..." [source: Lemas]... (File photo: USGS).
TODAY: More humid, isolated T-storm possible. Sticky sun. Winds: SW 15. High: near 90
THURSDAY NIGHT: Warm and muggy. Low: 70
FRIDAY: Steamy sunshine - plenty hot. Dew point: 73. High: 91
SATURDAY: Hot sun. Dew point: 73. Feels like 95-100F. Winds: South 10-20. Wake-up: 72. High: 93
SUNDAY: Few showers and T-storms likely. Winds: W/NW 10-15. Wake-up: 73. High: 84
MONDAY: Blue sky, less humid. Dew point: 59. Wake-up: 64. High: 75
TUESDAY: Fading sun, T-storms at night. Wake-up: 61. High: 79
WEDNESDAY: Sticky, a few heavy T-storms around. Wake-up: 64. High: 83
Photo credit above: " Credit Jenn Ackerman for The New York Times.
Graph credit above: "Comparison of the most recent climate model simulations with actual global surface temperature measurements." Created by Gavin Schmidt.
* John Oliver's memorable clip is here, courtesy of YouTube and HBO.
Animation credit above: "A GIF of National Geographic atlases from 1999 through 2014 shows how Arctic ice has melted over time." Source: National Geographic Maps.