81 F. average high on August 13.
83 F. high on August 13, 2014.
August 13, 1964: A taste of fall over area with 26 in Bigfork and 30 in Campbell.
For only the third time this summer the mercury will top 90 degrees later today. Throw in a sauna-like dew point in the mid-70s and it should feel like 95-100F by late afternoon. Smoke from western wildfires will keep our sky hazy.
Map credit above: "
More June than August. Models are in fairly good agreement, suggesting a heavy rain event by next Wednesday and Thursday, the GEFS ensemble hinting at over 4" of rain. What month is this again. Graphic: Aeris Enterprise.
Map credit above: "
* For readers fluent in German you can click here to get more information from Stefan Rahmstorf at SciLogs.de, who adds: "This should give a bit of context to the various heat waves happening around the planet this summer. The data clearly show the high incidence of extreme heat is part of a systematic long-term trend, not some black swan. And El Niño only plays a minor part. During 1950-1980, when also lots of El Niños happened, we had nothing like the current levels of extreme heat, which are even during normal years without El Niño much more widespread even than with the massive 1982/83 El Niño."
Photo credit above: "The Los Angeles Reservoir is covered with over 90 million black plastic balls in the Sylmar area of Los Angeles Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2015. The city has completed a program of covering open-air reservoirs with floating "shade balls" to protect water quality. The 4-inch-diameter plastic balls block sunlight from penetrating the 175-acre surface of the reservoir, preventing chemical reactions that can cause algae blooms and other problems." (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)
Photo credit above: "Stevens Institute of Technology graduate student A.J. Elliott, 24, shows off the house's innovative shutter design. The shutters have solar panels attached, he said." (Laura Herzog | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com).
When Is The Sun's Next "Superflare" Due? The odds are small in any given year, but there's no room for complacency. Here's an excerpt from Science/AAAS: "...But when can we expect the next superflare? Astronomers at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, studied 84 sunlike stars and observed 29 of these supersized solar flares over a 4-year period to find out how often they occur. Good news! A star like our sun will probably experience such an extreme flare only once every 250 to 480 years—astronomers say 350 years is the most likely scenario..."
Image credit above: NASA/SDO/GOES-15.
TODAY: Sweaty sunshine. Dew point: 73. PM Heat Index: 95-100F. Winds: SW 8. High: 92
FRIDAY NIGHT: Warm and sticky. Low: 72
SATURDAY: Hot sun, windy. Drier day of the weekend. Winds: South 10-20. High: 92
SUNDAY: Few hours of showers, T-storms. Wake-up: 73. High: 84
MONDAY: Sunny, less humid. Dew point: 61. Wake-up: 65. High: 80
TUESDAY: Showers and T-storms develop. Wake-up: 62. High: 79
WEDNESDAY: Still soggy, more showers, T-storms. Wake-up: 65. High: 83
THURSDAY: Wet start, then clearing. Wake-up: 66. High: 82
Graphic credit above: " Kevin Trenberth/Data from NOAA, Author provided."
File photo above: "Tex Toler watches the Llano River rise on Friday, May 29, 2015 in Llano, Texas, after another round of heavy rains." (Jay Janner/Austin American-Statesman/TNS).
* Map courtesy of Yale Project on Climate Change Communication.
Photo credit above: " Credit Jenn Ackerman for The New York Times.
Graph credit above: "Comparison of the most recent climate model simulations with actual global surface temperature measurements." Created by Gavin Schmidt.