83 F. average high on July 31.
84 F. high on July 31, 2014.
August 1, 1955: A thunderstorm in Becker County dumped a foot of rain at Callaway.
An Unlikely Weather Map
Weather is a deep dive into chaos theory. Computers help but model simulations only go so far. I've been scratching my head more than usual in 2015. From extreme drought to raging floods in Texas. A record-setting wet July across the Midwest; surplus soil moisture helping to depress corn prices. Record 100-degree-plus heat grips Oregon and Washington state. A record summer for wildfires in Alaska.
August is prime time for hurricanes, but Florida has gone nearly a decade (!) without experiencing one of these fearsome storms. A recent poll suggests 1 in 3 Floridians won't evacuate if a Category 1 hurricane is steamrolling their way. Crazy. Apathy may breed disaster down the road.
A surge of moisture coupled with strong wind shear and instability aloft could spark strong to severe T-storms by evening, especially over the southern half of Minnesota. I'm just hoping my power stays on this time. Sunday looks drier with 80s and a light breeze. Longer range guidance hints at a few 70s by late next week.
I'm a glass-half-full guy but it's been a memorable summer: just warm enough, not too humid and an almost ideal rainfall pattern for farmers; just a handful of severe outbreaks. Perfect.
Hurricane Wilma file image: NOAA.
Photo credit above: "The chances of heavy rainfall and high storm surges occurring in tandem is increasing, which puts U.S. cities at greater risk of flooding, researchers say. Above, water flows over the Industrial Canal floodwall in New Orleans in 2008." (Eliot Kamenitzd / The Times-Picayune via AP).
TODAY: Warm sun, few strong to severe storms by evening? Winds: West 10. High: 84
SATURDAY NIGHT: Strong T-storms possible, some packing hail and high winds. Low: 64
SUNDAY: More sun, isolated T-storm risk. High: 86
MONDAY: Sunny, less humid. DP: 53. Wake-up: 65. High: 82
TUESDAY: Comfortable sunshine. Loving August. Wake-up: 62. High: 80
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, probably dry. Wake-up: 62. High: 82
THURSDAY: Sunny intervals, hints of September. Wake-up: 60. High: 79
FRIDAY: Showers and T-storms, some heavy. Wake-up: 61. High: 77
Earth Now Halfway to U.N. Global Warming Limit. New Scientist has the details; here's the intro: "It's the outcome the world wants to avoid, but we are already halfway there. All but one of the main trackers of global surface temperature are now passing more than 1 °C of warming relative to the second half of the 19th century, according to an exclusive analysis done for New Scientist. We could also be seeing the end of the much-discussed slowdown in surface warming since 1998, meaning this is just the start of a period of rapid warming. “There’s a good chance the hiatus is over,” says Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado..." (Graph credit: Kevin Cowtan of the University of York).
Photo credit above: "
Graphic credit above: "Comparison of 84 climate model simulations (using RCP8.5) against HadCRUT4 observations (black), using either air temperatures (red line and shading) or blended temperatures using the HadCRUT4 method (blue line and shading). The upper panel shows anomalies derived from the unmodified climate model results, the lower shows the results adjusted to include the effect of updated forcings from Schmidt et al. (2014)."
* The Carbon Brief has more perspective on climate models vs. reality and actual performance metrics.