Meteorologist Paul Douglas writes about Minnesota weather daily, trying to go beyond the "highs" and "lows" of the weather story to discuss current trends and some of the how's and why's of meteorology. Rarely is our weather dull - every day is a new forecast challenge. Why is the weather doing what it's doing? Is climate change a real concern, and if so, how will my family be affected? Climate is flavoring all weather now, and I'll include links to timely stories that resonate with me.
82 F. high temperature in the Twin Cities Wednesday. 82 F. average high on August 5. 81 F. high on August 5, 2014.
August 6, 1969:
Tornadoes sweep across northern Minnesota, hitting Ely, Backus, Outing
and Dark Lake. Damage could still be seen 20 years later in the BWCA.
August 6, 1866:
Torrential rain dumps 10.30 inches at Sibley in 24 hours. Widespread
flooding occurs washing out bridges and drowning many people. In
Fillmore County it is known as the "Wisel Flood" because 3 members of
the Wisel family perished in the flood.
A Summer To Remember
"Wherever you go, no matter what the weather, always bring your own sunshine" wrote Anthony J. D'Angelo.
Meteorologists take special delight in making you feel worse than you thought possible. In winter it's wind chill and "Winter Misery Index". In summer it's dew point and heat index.
Remember,
Minnesota has some of the most extreme swings in temperature and
moisture in North America with an average of 30 "life-threatening" days
every year - severe lightning, flooding, tornadoes, cold, snow &
blizzards. You get the picture.
But let's give credit where credit
is due: this summer has been extraordinary. No treadmill of washed-out
weekends, no extended streaks of gasp-worthy heat. The MSP metro has
experienced only 2 days of 90-degree plus heat. During an average
summer: 13 days of 90s.
The drought is over, another bumper harvest is imminent. It truly has been a summer to remember.
We'll
see blips of heat in the coming weeks but the core of the heat wave
remains out west, sparking massive fires from California to Alaska.
T-storms bubble up by tonight but most of the weekend looks sunny; highs in the mid-80s. Another 3-star, blue-ribbon, award-winning weekend?
We are so lucky.
Slight Severe Storm Threat.
NOAA SPC has a small chance of severe storms over portions of central
and southwestern Minnesota, generally south and west of the metro area.
Although an isolated tornado can't be ruled out the primary risk is 1"+
diameter hail and potentially damaging straight-line winds, with the
best chance after 5 PM. Stay tuned for possible watches and warnings
later today.
Partly-Thundery Weekend.
Our string of nice (dry) mostly-agreeable weekends may be about to come
to an end. The 00z run of the 12KM NAM model shows a few T-showers
popping later oday, but even stronger storms possible Saturday,
especially Saturday night along a warm frontal boundary. Plan your
outdoor activities for the morning and midday hours Saturday and you'll
have a better chance of success (with less running and screaming...)
84-Hour Accumulated Rainfall.
Here's a time-lapse of predicted rainfall amounts into Sunday morning, a
plume of heavy rain from the Ohio Valley intot he Carolinas, more
strong storms flaring up across the Upper Midwest, with the heaviest
rains falling Saturday night. Source: NOAA and AerisWeather.
1-2" Amounts Saturday Night?
I wouldn't bet the farm on this - after all it's only a computer model,
but the NAM shows a plume of 1-2" rains setting up from northern
Nebraska into the Twin Cities and western Wisconsin Saturday night.
Source: NOAA and WeatherBell.
NAM Guidance.
It seems we have a theme going. The ECMWF isn't as wet as the NAM
solution, which shows .31" of rain by Friday morning, but the main event
coming Saturday night. The 700+ helicity values Saturday night hint at
strong to severe thunderstorms capable of wind damage. I'm not
convinced, but it bears watching.
Time Warp.
Here are the temperatures a few towns in northern Minnesota woke up to
Wednesday morning. Jacket-worthy. No, make that gasp-worthy! What month
is this again?
Earth's Most Powerful Storm of the Year Roars Across Pacific. Here's the intro to a story at USA TODAY: "Food,
water, cots, generators, and other federal emergency supplies were
being rushed Tuesday from Hawaii and Guam to help Saipan after the
Earth's most powerful storm of 2015 — Super Typhoon Soudelor — blasted
through the tiny U.S. island in the Western Pacific. The storm continued
its violent march through the Pacific Ocean with sustained winds of
more than 160 mph and gusts approaching 200 mph — the equivalent of a
Category 5 hurricane, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center said Tuesday..."
* 15 meter waves reported with Typhoon Souledor. Details via SBS.
Alerts Broadcaster Briefing: Issued Wednesday morning, August 5, 2015
* Typhoon Soudelor forecast to strengthen into a Category 3-4 typhoon before reaching Taiwan Saturday PM (local time) - late Friday night USA time. Unusually warm Pacific Ocean water may result in an extreme storm capable of widespread damage. This may turn out to be a high impact event for Taiwan and local interests should be on high alert.
* Tropical Storm Guillermo continues to weaken, expected to track north of Hawaiian Island Chain - strong surf and flash flooding risk for islands.
* latest enhanced IR imagery of Typhoon Soudelor from NOAA is here.
Tracking Soudelor.
This storm was producing sustained winds of 180 mph with gusts to 220
mph yesterday. It has weakened slightly, but most models show
strengthening into a Category 4 typhoon (same thing as a hurricane)
within 24 hours, with sustained winds of 140 mph shortly before reaching
the island of Taiwan.
Wind Damage Potential.
Although it is still early to try and isolate impacts from Soudelor, a
swath of severe to catastrophic wind damage and 10-20 foot storm surges
are possible over central Taiwan. Right now it appears the worst impacts
will remain south of the capital of Taipei but this could change,
depending on the final track of the typhoon.
Hawaii Spared Major Damage from Guillermo.
Some flash flooding and mudslides can't be ruled out, along with minor
storm surge flooding and coastal beach erosion (especially near high
tide) on the northern and eastern coasts of the Hawaiian Islands, but
the storm continues to weaken over time - impacts to facilities and
staff will be minor to moderate.
We will continue to keep an eye
on the Pacific, specifically Typhoon Soudelor, which may impact Taiwan
as a very powerful and damaging storm within 48 hours.
Paul Douglas, Senior Meteorologist, AerisWeather
Summer In Baghdad: Beneath the Heat and Hijab.
Here's a clip from a fascinating explanation of what it's like to be in
Iraq during the most oppressive months of summer. Most Americans have
no idea of what it's like to function under the conditions this reporter
(Anne Barnard) experienced; here's an excerpt from The New York Times: "...It was my hardest experience reporting in Iraq’s heat,
and it was a function of both climate and conflict. That combination
has tortured Iraqis for decades during the long summers, bringing on
what many describe as a kind of heat-induced temporary insanity. A day
out in peak Iraqi heat leaves you feeling as if the force of gravity has
multiplied and thirsty with a panic akin to suffocation. But the bigger
problem – thanks to chronic power shortages wrought by a series of wars
– comes when the home you return to is not much cooler..."
Photo credit above: "Anne Barnard in Najaf, Iraq in 2004 where she was reporting for The Boston Globe in extreme heat." Credit Sa’ad al-Izzi.
Hurricane Sandy Still Taking A Toll Nearly 3 Years Later.Futurity has some statistics that made me do a double-take; here's an excerpt: "Hurricane
Sandy continues to affect the lives of tens of thousands of New Jersey
residents, who are still dealing with unfinished repairs, disputed
claims, and recurrent mold—after-effects that are linked to an increased
risk of mental health distress, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD),
and depression. According to the Sandy Child and Family Health Study, a
study of 1 million New Jersey residents living in the hurricane’s path,
more than 100,000 New Jersey residents experienced significant
structural damage to their primary homes. Of those people, 27 percent
are still experiencing moderate or severe mental health distress and 14
percent report still signs and symptoms of PTSD two and a half years
after the storm..."
Study Claims Perovskite Solar Cells Can Recoup Their Energy Cost Within 3 Months.
The only thing anyone can predict with a high degree of accuracy: more
disruption is coming, prices will continue to fall as innovation into
clean-energy sources accelerates. Details via gizmag.com: "Scientists
at Northwestern University and the U.S. Department of Energy have found
that perovskite cells, one of the most promising solar technologies of
recent years, can repay their energy cost over 10 times faster than
traditional silicon-based solar cells. The finding confirms that, once
issues related to cell longevity are ironed out, perovskite cells could
soon bring us solar energy on the cheap, and do so with less impact on
the environment over their lifetime..."
Russia Just Laid Claim To A Vast Chunk Of The Arctic. The next geopolitical and militaryy flashpoint: the oil-rich waters of the Arctic. Here's an excerpt from Vice News: "Vladimir
Putin has long considered the Arctic a Russian "sphere of special
interest," and on Tuesday, Russia formally petitioned the UN for a large
chunk of Arctic territory. Russia is hoping to use a little-known
international treaty — The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea — to
claim a 460,000 square mile section of the frozen landmass that's
thought to contain nearly 5 billion tons of oil. The move is the latest
in an international scramble for the oil-rich and strategically
significant Arctic..."
U.K. Government to Citizens: "Take Your Vitamin D Supplements".
The older I get the more I appreciate having the sun out (most days).
That's somethings residents of Britain don't take for granted, according
to Quartz: "The
UK’s lack of sunshine is no longer just an ice-breaker between two
strangers—it may also be a health worry. The government’s Scientific
Advisory Committee on Nutrition (SACN) has recommended
that Britons should take supplemental vitamin D as a precaution. No sun
can mean a lack of vitamin D, as that is where humans get 90% of the vitamin..."
The Age of the Robot Worker Will Be Worse For Men.
No robot would want to do my job. Just saying. Half of all jobs
obsolete in the not-too-distant future? Here's an excerpt from The Atlantic: "...This pattern holds for many of the most gender-biased occupations. Men hold 97 percent
of the 2.5 million U.S. construction and carpentry jobs. The Oxford
study estimates that these male workers stand more than a 70 percent
chance of being replaced by robotic workers. By contrast, women hold 93 percent of the registered nurse positions. Their risk of obsolescence is vanishingly small: .009 percent..."
Airbus Patents Design for Mach 4-Plus Supersonic Jet. Will it be built? One regret is never scraping together the cash to take a flight on the supersonic Concorde. Gizmag has the tantalizing details: "If
there's one area where the 21st century has gone backwards
technologically, it's in supersonic passenger flight. With the grounding
of the Concorde fleets in 2003, flying faster than the speed of sound
reverted to a military monopoly, but that hasn't kept engineers from
trying for a revival.
Now Airbus' Marco Prampolini and Yohann Coraboeuf have been granted a
US patent for an "ultra-rapid air vehicle" designed to fly at 20 km
(12.4 mi) higher than conventional aircraft and over four times the
speed of sound – twice the speed of Concorde..."
An Alien Sky.
Thanks to Mark Tarello and Johannah McKinney Cheek in Harrodsburg,
Kentucky for Tuesday's wild display of something you just don't see
every day: "undulatus asperatus clouds". Nice.
Putting Golfball Size Hail To Good Use.
You have to hand it to Wisconsin residents - they know what to do with
big chunks of ice falling from the sky. Thanks to the Green Bay office
of the National Weather Service for the chuckle!
TODAY: Unsettled, few T-storms late - some may be severe south/west of MSP. Winds: S 10-15. High: 80
THURSDAY NIGHT: T-storms likely, some packing locally heavy rain. Low: 65
FRIDAY: Damp start, slow PM clearing. High: 81
SATURDAY: Partly sunny - heavy T-storms possible PM hours, especially Saturday night. Winds: South 5-10. Wake-up: 68. High: 85
SUNDAY: Fading sun, more noticeable humidity - stray storms late PM. Wake-up: 69. High: 84
MONDAY: Few showers and T-storms. Wake-up: 67. High: 79
TUESDAY: Sunny and beautiful. Wake-up: 64. High: 84
WEDNESDAY: Blue sky, light winds. Perfection. Wake-up: 66. High: 86
Climate Stories...
Why Power Suppliers Most Affected by EPA Plan Don't Hate It. Bloomberg Business has the article - here's an excerpt: "Opponents
of President Barack Obama’s plan to cut power-plant emissions say
utilities will be among the casualties. You wouldn’t know it to hear
from the power providers themselves. For a group that must dramatically
alter the way it does business to comply with the proposal, utilities
don’t sound very annoyed. In fact, the industry’s main trade group said
the Obama administration “seems to have responded to some of our key
concerns.” The new rules will even boost profits for some..." Where Does Minnesota Fall in Clean Energy Plan?PostBulletin.com has the story - here's a link and excerpt: "...David
Thornton, an assistant commissioner with the Minnesota Pollution
Control Agency, said it will take weeks for his staff to analyze
Minnesota's obligations under the revised rule the EPA released Monday.
But so far, he said, he's encouraged. "We think this final plan is a
more balanced, fair plan, and it does a better job of recognizing the
kind of work we've already done here in Minnesota," he said. So even if
Minnesota's target is as high as 40 percent, Thornton said, when it
comes to the things the state's utilities will need to do to meet it —
the efforts could be minimal..." (File photo: MN.gov).
* If you're up for a little light reading, the entire EPA Clean Power Plan, all 1500+ pages is here.
Arctic's Melting Ice Shrinks Shipping Routes.
One silver lining to diminishing arctic ice: ships will burn less fuel
as they navigate to their destination; here's a clip from Climate News Network: "The
disappearing Arctic ice cap will boost trade between north-west Europe
and countries such as China, Japan and South Korea by making the sea
routes far shorter, according to economic analysts. The new sea route
will alter world trade, making northern countries richer, but causing
serious problems for Egypt, which will lose a large chunk of revenue
currently gained from ships coming through the Suez Canal. One advantage
to the environment − according to a discussion paper from the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis − is that ships will burn far less fossil fuel to reach their destination..."
A "Fine Canadian Wine". Don't laugh - it's coming. Here's an excerpt from Montreal Gazette: "...Temperatures
in Quebec may rise enough by 2050 that vineyards could start growing
vitis vinifera grapes, which are used for such wines as chardonnay,
pinot noir and cabernet sauvignon, according to work presented by
climate scientists Philippe Roy and Isabelle Charron at the American
Geophysical Union’s Joint Assembly, which was held in Montreal in May.
Quebec’s wine industry has been growing steadily..."
Photo credit above: "As the climate gets warmer, new research suggests Quebec vineyards may be able to grow an increasing number of grape varieties."Dave Sidaway / Montreal Gazette.
The Oil Crash Has Caused a $1.3 Trillion Wipeout.Bloomberg Business reports - here's the introduction: "...It’s
the oil crash few saw coming, and few have been spared as it erased
$1.3 trillion, the equivalent of Mexico’s annual GDP, in little more
than a year. Take billionaire Carl Icahn. When crude was at its peak in
June 2014, the activist investor’s stake in Chesapeake Energy Corp. was
worth almost $2 billion. Today, oil has lost more than half its value,
Chesapeake is the worst performer in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
and Icahn has a paper loss of $1.3 billion. The S&P 500, by
contrast, is up 6.9 percent in that time..."
Republicans Say Green Groups Had Outsized Influence on EPA. Here's the introduction to a story at Bloomberg Business: "Republican
lawmakers said the Natural Resources Defense Council and other
environmental groups had an inappropriate influence on developing the
Obama administration’s regulation to curb carbon emissions from power
plants. The Environmental Protection Agency released the final rule
Monday, and it was hailed by NRDC and others as a major step toward
addressing the risks of global warming. The Senate Environment and
Public Works Committee on Tuesday released a compilation of e-mails
between the groups and administration officials to show “collusion” in
crafting the rule..."
Climate Change Could Give San Francisco The Climate of San Diego, Scientists Say. Here's a blurb from The Washington Post: "...Having the best climate is a bold boast, and the sign got climate scientist Ken Caldeira of
Stanford University’s Carnegie Institute of Science thinking about how
he might test the town’s claim to fame. His research, published Tuesday
in the journal Scientific Reports, indicates which city may actually
have the nicest climate — and which city could take the title in the
next 100 years if humans fail to curb carbon emissions and mitigate
climate change..." (AP Photo/Eric Risberg).
Obama Didn't Kill Coal, The Market Did. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at Bloomberg View: "...The
overblown political rhetoric about the plan tends to obscure the market
reality that the coal industry has been in steady decline for a decade,
partly as a result of the natural gas boom, but mostly because
consumers are demanding cleaner air and action on climate change.
Communities across the U.S. have led the way in persuading utilities to
close dirty old coal plants and transition to cleaner forms of energy.
The Sierra Club’s grass-roots Beyond Coal
campaign (which Bloomberg Philanthropies funds) has helped close or
phase out more than 200 coal plants over the past five years..." ) File photo credit: Elaine Thompson, Associated Press).
We Are The Asteroid.
The five previous mass extinctions on Earth were tied to asteroids and
(mostly) volcanic eruptions on a planetary scale. What is unique about
this period is the speed of change, the rate at which we are adding
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. Are we
undergoing a 6th extinction? Here's a link to a YouTube video from Yale Climate Forum: "Leading Scientists compare current Human pressure on the planet's life support systems to great Extinction events of the past."
Here's Where Over 90% of the Extra Heat from Global Warming Is Going. Business Insider has the article; here's a clip: "The average surface temperature around the world has increased by roughly 1.08 degrees Fahrenheit
over the last 40 years, but that number would be a lot larger if it
weren't for the oceans. "To date, the oceans have essentially been the
planet's refrigerator and carbon dioxide storage locker," Hans-Otto
Pörtner, who is a researcher at the Alref Wegener Institute, Helmholtz
Centra for Polar and Marine Research, told ScienceDaily.
"For instance, since the 1970s they've absorbed roughly 93% of the
additional heat produced by the greenhouse effect, greatly helping to
slow the warming of our planet..."
Glaciers Melting at "Unprecedented" Rate. CBS News highlights new data that shows an acceleration of glacier ice loss, worldwide. Here's an excerpt: "According
to a wide-ranging new study, in the first part of the 21st century,
glaciers are melting faster than at any point in the last 165 years --
and possibly any point in recorded history. Published Monday in the
Journal of Glaciology by the World Glacier Monitoring Service, the
findings represent thousands of observations going all the way back to
the 1600s. That includes more than 40,000 on-site measurements of glacier thickness, images from planes and satellites, and reconstructions based on historical pictures and texts...."
Image credit above: "The top image shows the Swiss Rhone Glacier in June 2007; the second image shows the same glacier in June 2014." Simon Oberli.
World's Glaciers Melting At Fastest Rate Since Record-Keeping Began. Globally 3 times the ice volume stored in the Alps is lost every year, according to new research highlighted at Huffington Post; here's a clip: "The world's glaciers have melted to the lowest levels since record-keeping began more than 120 years ago, according to a study conducted by the World Glacier Monitoring Service that was released on Monday. The research, published in the Journal of Glaciology, provides
new evidence that climate change has spurred the rapid decline of
thousands of the world's ice shelves over the past century. The first
decade of the 21st century saw the fastest loss of ice since scientists
began tracking it in 1894 -- and perhaps in recorded history, WGMS
reported..."
Methane in Atmosphere May Greatly Exceed Estimates. Which is problematic, considering methane is a greenhouse gas far more concentrated and potent than CO2. Here's an excerpt from The New York Times: "A
device commonly used to measure the methane that leaks from industrial
sources may greatly underestimate those emissions, said an inventor of
the technology that the device relies on. The claim, published Tuesday
in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, suggests that the amount of
escaped methane, a potent greenhouse gas, could be far greater than
accepted estimates from scientists, industry and regulators. The new paper focuses on a much-heraldedreport sponsored by the Environmental Defense Fund
and published by University of Texas researchers in 2013; that report
is part of a major effort to accurately measure the methane problem..." (File image: ThinkProgress).
Can Forests Rebound From Severe Drought?CSMonitor.com has the story - here's the link and an excerpt that caught my eye: "...Dr.
Anderegg, who studies climate change at Princeton University, found
that living trees took an average of two to four years to recover
post-drought. There was just one exception: California and Mediterranean
regions actually grew faster after a drought. "We don't have a clear
answer as to why this was," Anderegg says. "One possibility is that
these regions tended to be dominated by oak forests, and we found that
oaks tended to recover relatively quickly..."
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