56 F. average high on October 21.
58 F. high on October 21, 2014.
Trace of rain fell Wednesday at KMSP.
October 22, 1938: Sleet and wind causes damage along Minnesota/Wisconsin border. 100,000 dollars in damage at La Crosse.
October 22, 1913: Long Prairie had a record low of a chilly 8 degrees Fahrenheit.
Glancing Blows of Chilly Air
Mild Bias Continues
I feel like the little boy with his thumb in the dike, wondering how much longer his luck can hold out. The third nicest summer since 1905 has been followed by a remarkable, super-sized autumn. Not many people complaining about the weather these days, which seems miraculous on some level. Do we live in Minnesota or San Diego?
With the strongest El Nino since 1998 odds favor a more zonal, west to east flow for the next few months, pumping milder Pacific air across the Rockies into Minnesota. Most (but not all) El Nino events result in milder, drier winters. But there are exceptions to every rule.
We will see cold fronts.
We will get snow.
With any luck we'll pick up a third of an inch of rain Friday ahead of an eastbound cool front. Much of Minnesota is running a rainfall deficit; we need a couple of good soakings before the ground freezes up solid in mid-November, otherwise farmers will be facing soil moisture shortages next spring.
A preponderance of puddles tomorrow gives way to slow clearing on Saturday. I hope - I pray skies clear. If not listen for my faint primal scream.
Photo credit above: "A tow-truck operator assists a stranded motorist during flash flooding in Florence, S.C., Sunday, Oct. 4, 2015, as heavy rain continues to cause widespread flooding in the state." (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
Graphic credit above: "Total number of tornadoes per county (1955-2014)." Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center
Image credit above: City of St. Cloud.
Photo credit above: "What was my password again?" (Reuters/Albert Gea).
TODAY: Plenty of sunshine, light winds. Winds: SW 3-8. High: 63
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low: 50
FRIDAY: Showery rains likely. Winds: SE 15-25. High: 58
SATURDAY: Clearing, cooler. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 48. High: 59
SUNDAY: More clouds, stray shower? Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 40. High: 57
MONDAY: Intervals of cool sunshine. Wake-up: 41. High: 52
TUESDAY: AM sun, late showers. Wake-up: 39. High: 53
WEDNESDAY: Cold rain possible, raw. Wake-up: 43. High: 47
Photo credit above: "Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., speaks during an unscheduled press conference after disembarking a train from Washington, D.C., Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2015, in New York." (AP Photo/Bebeto Matthews)
Image credit above: FL Center for Environmental Studies.
Photo credit above: " Photo: Ashwini Bhatia/Associated Press.
Carbon Pollution: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly, and The Denial. CO2 is "plant food". Yes, to a point, but that doesn't factor in the negatives of a CO2-rich atmosphere: more volatility, more swings between flood and drought, more overall stressors on agriculture. Here's an excerpt from The Guardian: "...In short, if all else is equal, higher carbon dioxide is generally better for plant growth. The problem is that when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rise in the real world, we can’t hold everything else constant the way we can in a greenhouse. Temperatures rise, and the resulting extreme heat can have severely detrimental impacts on plant growth, particularly for certain crops like maize. That rise in temperatures also amplifies droughts, the increase of water vapor in the atmosphere intensifies floods, and so on. To evaluate the impact of rising carbon dioxide and the associated climate changes on crop yields, all these factors need to be considered..." (File photo: AP).
Image credit: Alaska Fire Service.