23 F. average high on January 6.
8 F. high on January 6, 2015.
January 7, 2003: Record warmth develops over Minnesota. Many places reached the 50s, including the Twin Cities. St. James hit 59 and the Twin Cities reached 51. Nine golf courses were open in the Twin Cities and 100 golfers were already at the Sundance Golf Course in Maple Grove in the morning.
January 7, 1873: A storm named the 'Great Blizzard' hits Minnesota. This three-day blizzard caused extreme hardship for pioneers from out east who were not used to the cold and snow. Visibility was down to three feet. Cows suffocated in the deep drifts and trains were stuck for days. More than 70 people died, and some bodies were not found until spring. Weather conditions before the storm were mild, just like the Armistice Day storm.
Next Week's Arctic SmackDown Arrives in 3 Waves
"As the days lengthen the cold doth strengthen". Yes it doth. But I have good news: it won't be quite as cold as previously expected for the Vikes-Seahawks game at TCF Stadium Sunday. The game time temperature should be -3F with a chill factor of -25F. Almost reasonable.
And let's not blubber over our misfortune or feel too sorry for ourselves. Minnesota is Club Med compared to other northern outposts. The Russian town of Oymyakon keeps schools open as cold as -52F. Air temperature, not wind chill. It's gotten as cold as -90F in Oymyakon (which may be Russian for Oh My God!) but the local tourist office insists it's "a perfect destination for travelers with a lust for the extreme".
We're waking up to a little slush but roads should be mainly wet today & Friday. Models hint at a couple inches of snow Friday before temperatures begin to plummet.
The much-advertised cold wave arrives in 3 separate waves: subzero Sunday, another shot Tuesday, again next Thursday. Character-building cold.
Next week will be the coldest of the winter. Models show a warming trend within 2 weeks. In theory.
* Sunday 1 pm surface ECMWF temperature prediction courtesy of WeatherBell.
Image credit: "Mean sea level pressure between Saturday, December 27, 2015 and Monday, January 4, 2016, as forecast by the GFS model, showing the progression of the low from Texas to the Arctic Ocean." Image credit: Tropical Tidbits
Photo credit above: "Small birds like this European robin puff up their feathers in order to trap more air in them, which is then warmed by their body heat and keeps the bird toasty on a cold winter morning." (Flickr photo by Theirry Marysael).
How To Survive El Nino Like an Angeleno. Residents of southern California are happy to see it rain again. They could live without the mudslides, tornadoes and traffic nightmares though. Here's how they're coping, courtesy of The Los Angeles Times.
What North America Can Expect From El Nino. Every El Nino has a different "flavor" and slightly different symptoms, no two events are identical, according to a good overview at The Conversation; here's an excerpt: "...During the coming months, climate scientists expect that El Niño will pull the east Pacific Northern Hemisphere jet stream and its associated storm track southward. Normally these storms veer to the north toward the Gulf of Alaska or enter North America near British Columbia and Washington, where they often link up with cold Arctic and Canadian air masses and bring them down into the United States. Instead, with the jet stream following an altered path, the northern states are likely to experience relatively mild and drier-than-normal weather. Storms tracking across the continent further to the south will likely create wet conditions in California and across the South as far east as Florida..."
Photo credit above: " " Dave Gatley/FEMA.
All caps, nice touch...
Meet the Chef Who Decides What Tom Brady Eats. Yes, really. Boston.com has the (ahem) story.
TODAY: Flurries, mainly wet roads. Winds: SE 5-10. High: 34
THURSDAY NIGHT: More flurries, patchy fog possible. Low: 31
FRIDAY: Period of wet snow, couple inches may fall. Winds: N 7-12. High: 33
SATURDAY: Flurries, turning gusty and colder. Wake-up: Winds: NW 10-20. 15. High: 17 (falling rapidly)
SUNDAY: Brutal. Feels like -25F at times. Risk of frostbite. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: -6. High: -1
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, coating of flurries? Wake-up: -8. High: 13
TUESDAY: Next shot of arctic air arrives. Delightfully numb. Wake-up: 0. High: 5
WEDNESDAY: Chance of light snow after a very cold start. Wake-up: -12. High: 15
Climate Change is Indeed a Cause of Social Conflict. When people ask me if climate volatility is a bigger threat than ISIS I tell them the truth: we have multiple challenges and threats at any given point in time. Did perpetual drought in Syria help to create the conditions that allowed ISIS to flourish? As is often the case it's a combination of factors, a perfect storm of variables. Here's an excerpt from The Goldman School of Public Policy at The University of California, Berkeley: "...Another caveat: We can’t predict that a particular conflict will or will not happen. Instead, we can assess the risk that violence might occur in response to changes in the climate. The situation is similar to assessing the risk of a car accident. Nobody ever says, “If you drive to the store now, you will get into an accident.” Instead, we might say, “If you drive to the store during this rainstorm, you are more likely to get into an accident than if you wait until the rain stops.” We have studied many types of violence — including sports violence, murder, gang violence, riots and civil wars. What we find time and again, around the world and throughout human history, is that climatic events are a cause of social conflict. They are not the only cause, but in places where there is a risk of violence because of non-climate factors, climate changes can amplify this risk..."
Photo credit above: Adam Katz Sinding of Le 21ème
Global temperature anomalies valid 12z this morning, courtesy of Climate Reanalyzer.
"With even a modest warming of the globe comes dramatic increases in the likelihood of extreme individual warm spells and heat waves, like the one we are seeing…Add global warming to the mix and you get a veritable 'perfect storm' of conditions favoring heat spells like the one we're seeing right now."So it looks like it is a little of both—an El Niño exacerbated by something known as…climate change. Shocking to my New Englander soul, but also a good explanation of why in all my years—and my parents’ years—El Niño was never really on our radar..."
Storm Desmond Rainfall Partly Due to Climate Change, Scientists Conclude. Here's an excerpt from The Guardian: "Manmade climate change was partly responsible for Storm Desmond’s torrential rain which devastated parts of Scotland, the Lake District and Northern Ireland, scientists have concluded. The researchers at Oxford University and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) calculated that climate change had made the flooding event 40% more likely, with the estimate of the increased likelihood ranging between 5% and 80%..." (File image: The Guardian).