82 F. high in the Twin Cities Wednesday.
79 F. average high on August 24.
67 F. high temperature on August 24, 2015.
6.20" rain so far in August.
3.44" normal rainfall for August, to date.
August 25, 1976: The Roy Lake Fire results in 2,600 acres burned during a drought.
August 25, 1875: A tornado strikes near Hutchinson.
Fresh Air For The Fair - Welcome Touch of Autumn
The
question comes up fairly often: what is the biggest challenge for
meteorologists? It's a loaded question, and every forecaster you ask
will have a different answer.
Predicting
the extent and timing of floods is very difficult. We can tell when
conditions are ripe for tornadoes, but can't pinpoint which communities
until they actually spin up. Blizzards are a source of perpetual
migraines; where will the heaviest snow bands set up?
In
my opinion nothing quite rivals a hurricane. If you're wrong millions
of people may needlessly evacuate. If you're wrong, and a storm
strengthens rapidly, thousands could die. The models continue to
improve, but they're not perfect (and never will be).
ECMWF (European) guidance hints at a tropical storm impacting south Florida by Sunday, possibly intensifying into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Right now we don't know what we don't know.
Plan on a cool breeze today with afternoon cumulus clouds and low humidity. Fresh air for Day 1 of the State Fair. Friday looks sunny & ideal, but a few T-showers may sprout Saturday. Sunday should be the milder day of the weekend.
Summer weather lovers don't despair: 80s return next week.
Rare Late-August Tornado Outbreak Across Indiana. I counted at least 8 separate tornado touchdowns, probably more. Here's an excerpt at
Indystar.com: "
Meteorologists
were still working to answer a lot of questions Wednesday night after a
storm system that spanned much of Central Indiana produced several
tornadoes. National Weather Service teams were deployed to
evaluate extensive damage left in the wake of a storm, meteorologist Joe
Skowronek said. An apparent tornado leveled a Starbucks in Kokomo,
about 50 miles north of Indianapolis, though no injuries were reported.
The storm that produced the tornado began in neighboring Carroll
County and traveled straight east before leveling buildings and tearing the roofs off houses, Skowronek said..."
Supercell.
WCPO.com
has video of the apparent tornado that swept across Kokomo, Indiana -
early indications suggest EF-3 strength, with estimated winds
approaching 165 mph.
Couplet.
The radial velocity display on the Indianapolis NOAA Doppler showed
strong inbound and outbound velocities, suggesting very strong rotation
in the Kokomo area - one of several supercell thunderstorms that spun up
tornadoes Wednesday afternoon.
Still Sloppy.
The circulation around Invest-99 is still disorganized, the result of
considerable wind shear and even Saharan dust being entrained into the
system. Conditions may better favor intensification within a few days,
especially if/when this storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, which has water
in the 84-87F range
Spaghetti Plot.
Again, keep in mind that models tend to do a better job with tropical
track than intensity. Models remain in fairly good agreement that
Invest-99 will track northwest, the core of the (messy) storm remaining
over warm water, which favors slow intensification. Odds are this system
will reach South Florida as a tropical storm (Hermine) by Sunday.
Sunday Evening: Tropical Storm Hermine?
The ECMWF (Euro) seems to want to believe that a weak to moderate
tropical storm will impact south Florida late Saturday into Sunday. It's
still too early for specifics, but the European model has been
consistent bringing a tropical storm across south Florida for the last 3
days now. Model guidance: WSI.
Still Not Buying It.
Yesterday at this same time ECMWF guidance hinted at landfall in
southwest Louisiana; now the 12z Wednesday run is predicting landfall
over the Florida Panhandle. There is still a huge disparity in model
runs - and confidence levels remain very low. But could Hermine
strengthen into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico early next week?
Absolutely.
Fair Forecast: Best Chance of Showers Saturday.
Expect a dry, comfortable sky today and Friday, but the approach of
milder air may set off a few showers, even a stray T-shower Saturday.
Right now I don't see an all-day wash-out, but a few hours of showers
can't be ruled out. Models show a range of .12" to .32" of rain falling
at Falcon Heights on Saturday. Source: Aeris Enterprise.
Milder Day: Sunday.
Temperatures may not climb much above 70F on Saturday, but we expect
more sun on Sunday with a southeast breeze and highs near 80F. A better
day, if you prefer lukewarm weather.
Comfortable Weekend - Heating Up Again Next Week. ECMWF model guidance shows a streak of 80s returning next week; even a shot at 90F one week from tomorrow. Source: WeatherBell.
Recovering From Katrina: Will New Orleans Become the World's Climate Beacon? Deutsche Welle has an interesting read; here's a clip: "
Vitally,
too, the city has become a testing ground for innovative water
management projects, including the construction of river gates to mimic
flooding and create sediment. These will hopefully replace some of the
2,000 square miles of Louisiana's wetlands ecosystem that have
disappeared due to erosion. In addition, the astounding Lake Borgne
Surge Barrier - a 26-foot-high, 1.8-mile-long concrete- and steel-wall
nicknamed by locals "The Great Wall of Louisiana" - was constructed to
block deadly lake surges. "What's really resulted from Katrina is that
now we have a better water management program," Musso said. "I believe
that in a post-Katrina world, the right people turned up. I think that
the city is going to be better in the future than it's ever been..." (File photo: Wikipedia).
47th Anniversary of Hurricane Camille.
WBRC.com in Birmingham has a good recap of this monstrous, Category 5 storm: "
Wednesday marks
the 47th anniversary of Hurricane Camille making landfall along the
Mississippi Gulf Coast, devastating the coastline and the Pine Belt.
Camille made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane just after 11 p.m. in
Pass Christian with winds of 175 mph.
Other estimates placed the winds near 190 mph with gusts of 230 mph. The
exact speed will never be known since Camille destroyed all of the
weather sensors along the coast at landfall. Storm surge reached 24 feet
along the Mississippi Gulf Coast, which was the highest storm surge
ever recorded before Katrina. Camille is the second of only three storms
to ever make landfall as a Category 5 in the United States, the others
being the 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys, and Hurricane
Andrew in 1992..."
Photo credit: "In 1969, Hurricane Camille slammed into the Mississippi coast." Source: NOAA.
5 Reasons Some Were Unaware of One of the Biggest Weather Disasters Since Sandy. Dr. Marshall Shepherd explains at Forbes: "...The
American public is somewhat conditioned to perceive a named or
higher-category storm as more of a threat. The meteorological conditions
that produced the Louisiana floods never received an official “name.” One
NOAA Weather Prediction Center discussion actually referred to it
as ”sheared inland tropical depression” or a monsoon depression.
While this is meaningful to the meteorological crowd (maybe), this
certainly is not going to resonate with the average citizen. Whatever it
“was,” more rainfall fell in parts of Louisiana than some cities in
California have seen in three to five years..." (File image: NOAA).
California Firefighters Stretched Thin As Blazes Sweep State. The Associated Press reports: "
California's
state fire department is stretched thin just as the bone-dry state
enters the peak of its wildfire season, with vacancy rates exceeding 15
percent for some firefighters and supervisors. The vacancy rate is more
than 10 percent for some fire engine drivers, according to statistics
provided to The Associated Press. A five-year drought and changing
weather patterns have transformed what once was a largely summertime job
into an intense year-round firefight, said California Department of
Forestry and Fire Protection spokeswoman Janet Upton..."
Photo credit: "Laura
Sutton, center, the wife of California Department of Forestry and Fire
Protection firefighter Nick Sutton, joins others at a rally calling for
shorter hours and higher wages to retain firefighters, at the Capitol,
Monday, Aug. 22, 2016, in Sacramento, Calif. Statistics provided to The
Associated Press show vacancy rates exceeding 15 percent in some
CaliFire positions." (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)
California's Ocean Waters Due For a Cooling Trend After Period of Damaging Heat, Scientists Say. But the latest guidance suggests La Nina may not be as strong as earlier predicted. Here's an excerpt from The Los Angeles Times: "As
a series of marine heat waves linked to climate change has thrown ocean
ecosystems out of whack from Australia to the coast of California, a
cooling trend called La Niña has given scientists hope that water
temperatures could come back into balance. But so far, the cooling
weather pattern — predicted to follow as a result of last winter’s El
Niño — remains squeezed by warmer ocean temperatures along a narrow
stretch of the Earth’s equator..."
Graphic credit: NOAA, "La Niña developing." (@latimesgraphics)
U.S. Warning: Zika Could Spread to Gulf States, Persist For One to Two Years. The Washington Post reports: "The
National Institutes of Health’s Anthony Fauci warned that Texas and
Louisiana could be next for Zika. In the weeks since mosquitoes carrying
the virus hit U.S. borders, they have already spread from a small
suburban community in South Florida to Miami’s most popular tourist
spot, South Beach. The development prompted a travel advisory from the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday urging pregnant
women to avoid the area. Fauci, director of the Institute of Allergy and
Infectious Diseases, speaking Sunday on ABC’s “This Week,” said the
situation is likely to get worse soon..."
Image credit: "
The
Post's Brady Dennis talks with Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, about the process
of getting a potential Zika vaccine tested and ready for the public." (Video: The Washington Post/Photo: Sammy Dallal for The Washington Post).
Largest Oil Companies' Debts Hit Record High.
The Wall Street Journal reports: "
Some
of the world’s largest energy companies are saddled with their highest
debt levels ever as they struggle with low crude prices, raising worries
about their ability to pay dividends and find new barrels. Exxon Mobil Corp. , Royal Dutch Shell PLC, BP PLC and Chevron Corp.
hold a combined net debt of $184 billion—more than double their debt
levels in 2014, when oil prices began a steep descent that eventually
bottomed out at $27 a barrel earlier this year. Crude prices have
rebounded since, but still hover near $50 a barrel..."
EPA: North Texas Earthquakes Likely Linked to Oil and Gas Drilling.
The Texas Tribune reports: "
Federal
regulators believe “there is a significant possibility” that recent
earthquakes in North Texas are linked to oil and gas activity, even if
state regulators won’t say so. That’s
according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s annual
evaluation of how the Texas Railroad Commission oversees thousands of
injection and disposal wells that dot state oilfields — underground resting places for millions of gallons of toxic waste from fracking and other drilling activities.
.."
Apple Becomes a Green Energy Supplier, With Itself as Customer. The New York Times reports: "The words are stenciled on the front of the Apple
Store, a glass box sandwiched between a nondescript Thai restaurant and
a CVS pharmacy in downtown Palo Alto: “This store runs on 100 percent
renewable energy.” If Apple’s plans play out, it will be able to make
that claim not only for its operations throughout California but also
beyond, as the company aims to meet its growing needs for electricity
with green sources like solar, wind and hydroelectric power..."
Photo credit: "A
worker helps install new solar panels at a First Solar plant outside
Cholame, Calif. Apple will purchase the electricity generated by the
plant to power its stores in California." Credit Andrew Burton for The New York Times.
Why Uber Is Going to Test Its New Self-Driving Car in Pittsburgh. The future is arriving sooner than expected. Here's the intro to a
Washington Post story: "
Silicon
Valley is the land of the beta test, the constant tweak, where
companies habitually release products still in development to see how
they work in the hands of consumers. Last week, that iterative approach,
so ubiquitous in software, entered a new realm when Uber announced that
it would begin testing a fleet of 100 self-driving cars for hire in
Pittsburgh by the end of the month. The move means that the streets of a
large American city, one that gets an average of 41 inches of annual
snowfall and has more than 400 bridges, will become the company’s
laboratory. And the test subjects will be real people who summon the
vehicles, some weighing more than two tons with turbocharged engines,
with their smartphones..."
Photo credit: "
A
self-driving Ford Fusion hybrid car is test-driven Aug. 18 in
Pittsburgh. Uber said that passengers in Pittsburgh will be able to
summon rides in self-driving cars with the touch of a smartphone button
in the next several weeks." (Jared Wickerham/AP)
Tesla Touts Speed and Driving Range With New Upgraded Battery. Here's an excerpt at
Reuters: "
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA.O)
crowned itself the maker of the world's fastest production car on
Tuesday, saying a new version of its Model S all-electric sedan can
accelerate from 0-60 miles per hour in just 2-1/2 seconds.
Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk said the company will offer a larger
upgraded battery pack for performance versions of its Model S and X
vehicles that will extend range, while also allowing for super fast
acceleration. Tesla has long
laid claim to bragging rights in the highly competitive luxury car
market. But Tuesday's news is unlikely to change the equation on a host
of challenges the company faces, from production and finances to
regulation..."
Photo credit: "A Tesla Model S charges at a Tesla Supercharger station in Cabazon, California, U.S. May 18, 2016."
REUTERS/Sam Mircovich/File Photo.
Here's How Solar Roofs Fit Into Elon Musk's Master Plan. Vox has details: "Earlier this month, Elon Musk made news again
when he announced his intention to offer solar roofs, a product he
sensed might need a few words of clarification. "It's a solar roof as
opposed to a module on a roof," he said on an earnings call
about the planned merger between his electric car company, Tesla, with
his cousin’s solar panel company, SolarCity. "It's not a thing on the
roof, it is the roof." This wasn’t technically the first mention of the
solar roof — it also appeared in Musk’s Master Plan, Part Deux, released in July..."
Photo credit: "
Dow Chemical’s PowerHouse solar shingles, on a homeowner’s roof." (YouTube)
Electric Vehicle Sales On Track for Mainstream Adoption. Greentech Media has the story; here's an excerpt: "...The 2016 Global EV Outlook
from the International Energy Agency (IEA) also said last year was a
pivotal one for EV and PHEV sales. “The year 2015 saw the global
threshold of 1 million electric cars on the road exceeded, closing at
1.26 million,” said the organization. “This is a symbolic achievement
highlighting significant efforts deployed jointly by governments and
industry over the past 10 years. In 2014, only about half of today’s
electric car stock existed. In 2005, electric cars were still measured
in hundreds...”
Inside Shanghai Tower: China's Tallest Skyscraper Claims To Be The World's Greenest. Here's a clip from The Guardian: "...The Shanghai Tower, reaching 632 metres,
is the third “supertall” tower on the city’s iconic skyline. Looking
out from the 119th floor, the city lies below like a toy model, a
densely packed mass of streets and high-rise buildings. China
loves a world record, and its new building boasts plenty, including the
world’s fastest elevators, highest hotel and restaurant, and tallest
viewing platform. Reassuringly, it also required the largest ever cement
pouring for the foundations. But most importantly, the 128-storey tower
also claims to be the world’s greenest skyscraper. Awarded the top
green rating, LEED Platinum, the government is hailing the tower as a
sign of China’s growing green credentials..."
Photo credit: "
The newly completed Shanghai Tower, China’s tallest building, rises above the city." Photograph: Gensler.
Is There a Place in America Where People Speak Without Accents? Right here! Hey, Minnesotans don't have accents, do we?
Atlas Obscura explains: "...
But
the vaguely Midwestern basis for General American has stuck around in
surprising ways. Most Americans do not really believe they have an
accent; this is a reasonable, if inaccurate, thought, as most people are
surrounded by others who speak the same way they do. But the Midwest is
a particularly bizarre place, and Preston knows that better than
anyone. Preston is a pioneer in the study of perceptual dialectology,
the study of how normal people think about dialects: where they come
from, where they are, what they consist of..."
Photo credit: "
Minneapolis. The classic Midwestern accent is a result of the Northern Cities Vowel Shift." (Photo: Joseph Sohm/shutterstock.com).
TODAY: Some sun, cool breeze at the Minnesota State Fair. Winds: W 10-15. High: 73
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing and cool. Low: 54
FRIDAY: Early jackets. More sun, less wind. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 74
SATURDAY: Unsettled, a few showers in the area. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 58. High: 72
SUNDAY: More sun, milder day of the weekend. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 60. High: 79
MONDAY: Plenty of sun, warming up. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 63. High: 85
TUESDAY: Less sun, stray T-storm possible. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 64. High: 83
WEDNESDAY: Sticky with widely scattered storms. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 65. High: 85
Climate Stories...
Climate Change: Warning of Extreme Events, and a Move Into Uncharted Territory. An article and new study featured at
The Sydney Morning Herald caught my eye; here's an excerpt: "...
Already,
at about 1 degree warmer than pre-industrial times, parts of the world
are experiencing more frequent and intense extreme events – heatwaves,
unusual dry spells, dumping rainfall, massive coral bleaching. The
report says the upper end of current climate extremes would be "the new
normal" at 1.5 degrees warming - which could be just 10 to 20 years away
under the current trajectory. At 2 degrees, the picture is much less
clear – the climate system would move into uncharted territory..."
This Chart Shows Why Insurers Are Climate Change Believers.
When people ask if "I believe" I tell the the truth: I believe in God, I
acknowledge and continually test the science surrounding climate
volatility and weather disruption. Here's an excerpt at
Fortune: "
Whether
they’re paying for hurricane cleanup or reimbursing farmers for lost
livestock and crops, insurers foot much of the bill for disasters
associated with climate change. The chart below shows just how big that
bill can get; the cost of insured weather catastrophes has been soaring
far faster than inflation. Just about every company in the property and
casualty insurance business carefully tracks climate data these days
(the data for the chart above, for example, comes from Swiss Re)..."
Changing Opinions on Climate Change, From a CNN Meteorologist. I give Chad Myers at
CNN
a lot of credit. It's OK to change your mind, based on a preponderance
of evidence and data. Here's an excerpt of his post, explaining why he
now acknowledges that man-made climate change is real: "...
2010 was a turning point for me. That year was the hottest year on record,
even though there was a La Niña present, a process that should have
cooled the planet. Down went the other potential causes: There were no
volcanoes producing huge amounts of CO2. The sun was not getting hotter.
Satellite-derived temperature readings ruled out the heat-island
effect. Even "The Pause" (the so-called period post-1998 that showed
very little warming of the planet for about 15 years) had been
shattered. They are all now called "zombie theories," long
since debunked myths about climate change that skeptics will
continually bring up to counter the facts of man-made climate change..."
Russia Posed Military Threat in Melting Arctic, say UK MP's. Here's the intro to a story at
Climate Home: "
Russian
military expansion in the Arctic as a result of the melting ice-cap is a
potential threat to the UK, a Parliamentary inquiry has concluded.
Moscow has invested millions of dollars in two ice-breakers and new
miltary bases MPs heard, with new nuclear submarines also likely to join
its Northern Fleet. "The melting Arctic ice-cap may have significant
defense annd security implications for neighboring states," said the
Defense Committee report, which was published on 5 July..."
Photo credit: "
Russia has invested in new Arctic ice breakers." (Pic: Christopher Michel/Flickr).
Bill Nye: Climate Change to Blame for Louisiana Floods. Flooding
probably would have happened anyway, but a warmer Gulf of Mexico and
atmosphere with more water vapor overhead supercharged the storms,
making the flooding worse. Here's an excerpt from
CNN.com: "...
Nye
said due to the effects of climate change, the region will be hit again
by these smaller storms and suffer more catastrophic floods. "As the
ocean gets warmer, which it is getting, it expands," he explained. "And
then as the sea surface is warmer, more water evaporates. And so it's
very reasonable that these storms are connected to these big effects."
Lost lives and damaged homes won't be the only tragic effects, either.
The storms will be just as devastating in the long-term. "What will
probably happen is people will move," Nye said..."
In Streak of Extreme Storms, What's the Role of Warming? Climate Central connects the dots: "...
A
1-in-1,000-year event — “we’re talking about something that’s not
likely to ever happen” — would be 21 inches falling over the same time
period, he said. There were nine stations in the area that topped that
1-in-1,000 level, two of which saw more than 25 inches in just two days.
The highest rainfall was recorded in Watson, La., which saw 31.39
inches. That obliterated the previous two-day rainfall record by more
than 7 inches. “It’s just insanity,” Keim said. Half of southern
Louisiana received 10 inches or more of rain, and it’s possible that
more homes were flooded in this event than by Hurricane Katrina, Keim
said. Many of those homes hadn’t flooded during the previous flood of
record, in 1983, or at any time since. “The whole region just got
absolutely hammered,” Keim said..."
Photo credit: "
Flooded homes are seen in St. Amant, La., on Aug. 15, 2016." Credit: REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman.
A Widening 80-Mile Crack is Threatening One of Antarctica's Biggest Ice Shelves. Chris Mooney reports at
The Washington Post: "..
.It’s
called an ice “shelf” because the entirety of this country-sized area
is covered by 350-meter-thick ice that is floating on top of deep ocean
waters. The crack in Larsen C grew around 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) in
length between 2011 and 2015. And as it grew, also became wider — by
2015, yawning some 200 meters in length. Since then, growth has only
continued — and now, a team of researchers
monitoring Larsen C say that with the intense winter polar night over
Antarctica coming to an end, they’ve been able to catch of glimpse of
what happened to the crack during the time when it could not be observed
by satellite. The result was astonishing..." (Image credit:
Project MIDAS).
Global Warming Has Now Made The Northwest Passage a Thing. Phil Plait explains at Slate: "...Roald
Amundsen was the first to successfully make his way through. It took
him three years in a small ship starting in 1903, and included getting
stuck in ice three times. Fast-forward. On Aug. 16—just days ago—a
250-meter-long, 1,070 passenger cruise ship, the Crystal Serenity, set sail, and is expected to make its way through the Northwest Passage in just eight days. How can it do so? Global warming. Over the past few years, the Arctic has warmed so much that the fabled passage has become a reality.
The ice melts so much in the summer that it’s not only possible for
ships to make their way through the archipelago, but it may be
commercially viable to do so..."
Climate Change Could Cost Millenials Trillions of Dollars in Lifetime Income. Mashable has details: "
Americans
in their 20s and 30s could lose trillions of dollars in potential
lifetime earnings as climate change disrupts the global economy and
weakens U.S. productivity, according to a new report
by NextGen Climate said. If countries fail to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions and limit the amount and pace of global warming, a 21-year-old
college graduate today could lose $126,000 in lifetime wages and
$187,000 in long-term savings and investments, the report found. This
would outrank the lost income due to student debt or wage stagnation..." (File photo: Peter Morgan, AP).
It's Hard to Talk About Climate Change. This Storytelling Project Wants To Make It Easier. Here's an excerpt from
Vox: "...
If people are aware of climate change, why do so many seem to ignore discussions about the future? And how do you engage people in the conversation? That's what DearTomorrow, an online project founded in 2014, is tackling. Co-founders Trisha Shrum and Jill Kubit are
asking people to create messages, photos, and videos to be opened in
the years 2030 and 2050. The idea came about after Shrum heard a speech
by Christiana Figueres, the executive secretary of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change. Figueres said she had a dream
where children look at her and ask, "You knew about climate change. What
did you do?..."
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