84 F. high in the Twin Cities Tuesday.
80 F. average high on August 23.
70 F. high on August 23, 2015.
August 24, 2006:
Tornadoes and large hail strike southern Minnesota. One person died and
37 were injured when a strong tornado began 4 miles west-southwest of
Nicollet in Nicollet County, and moved almost due east for 33 miles to
near Waterville in Le Sueur County. Many storm chasers captured the
tornado on video. The largest hail reported was grapefruit-sized at New
Prague in Scott County.
August 24, 1934: Early cool air invades southern Minnesota. Rochester and Fairmont have lows of 34 degrees.
Clearing, Trending Cooler. Tropics Heating Up
I don't know much. Just ask my wife. But here is what I suspect: 1). Skies will clear today with a cooling trend into Friday morning. 2). Sunday
looks like the nicer, drier day of the weekend. And 3). I will never (ever)
own real estate along the Gulf Coast. Ever. Because I'd wind up
spending way too much time watching The Weather Channel. Worrying about
massive, Texas-size storms with names.
Life is too short.
The
ECMWF (European) model, which provided an 8-day heads-up with
Superstorm Sandy in 2012, is trying to bring a tropical storm (Hermine?)
into Florida by Sunday.
Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are unusually warm; high-octane fuel
for hurricane intensification, and this storm MAY strike the Gulf Coast Tuesday of next week. Let's hope it steers clear of Louisiana.
A wet start gives way to lukewarm sunshine today, with highs near 80F. A whiff of autumn Thursday leads to a slow weekend warming trend; a juicy warm front may spark numerous showers and T-storms Saturday. Sunday looks better - potentially lake-worthy.
The atmosphere is shifting gears as we limp into fall.
Tropical Briefing.
Aeris meteorologist Kristin Clark takes a look at the tropical wave
(99-L) that may intensify into a tropical storm or hurricane in the days
to come. NOAA's GFS model keeps killing the storm, but the ECMWF
(European model) pulls it into Florida as a tropical storm, with
possible strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Check out
her report
here.
Let's Hope This Doesn't Verify.
And I seriously doubt it will, but we should pay attention to all the
models, looking for trends. The European has been fairly consistent for 2
days now, pulling "Hermine" into southern Florida Sunday, then out over
the bathwater-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where significant
intensification is possible. Models tend to do a much better job with
track than intensity, so take everything with a huge grain of salt until
we get within 48-72 hours of landfall. ECMWF solution valid next
Tuesday at 1am, courtesy of WSI Corporation.
Getting Better Organized?
As of late last night the convection circulation associated with 99-L
was becoming slightly more concentric, but it still has a long way to go
before reaching tropical storm strength. Conditions are favorable for
strengthening, especially as it (possibly) enters the Gulf of Mexico
early next week. Source:
NOAA.
Spaghetti Plot.
Here are the various tropical model solutions for 99-L, keeping the
core of the storm north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Confidence
levels are still low; people living along or near the Gulf Coast and
Florida should pay attention. I don't even want to imagine a scenario
where this storm pushes more heavy rain into Louisiana.
Tracking Aftershocks in Italy. Using the (free)
Aeris Interactive tool you can track tremors, worldwide. Here is what we were looking at last night; a peak magnitude of 6.2 of the Richter Scale.
Taste of Autumn for Day 1 of the Minnesota State Fair.
Expect a stiff northwest breeze, a mix of clouds and sun and afternoon
highs in the low 70s. In the shade it may border on chilly (for some)
but most of us will find it refreshing. Temperature plot: Aeris
Enterprise.
Another Cool Correction - Mellowing Out Next Week.
I'm not yet convinced temperatures will hold in the 60s on Saturday
(possible if it rains long and hard enough) but Sunday should be the
drier, brighter, milder day of the weekend, with a good shot at low 80s
returning by the middle of next week. ECMWF forecast: WeatherBell.
Heat Lingers for Much of USA into Early September.
We should see fairly frequent cool frontal passages over the next 2
weeks; no sign of significant heat building close to home anytime soon.
That said, I doubt we've seen our last 90-degree day of 2016.
47th Anniversary of Hurricane Camille.
WBRC.com in Birmingham has a good recap of this monstrous, Category 5 storm: "
Wednesday marks
the 47th anniversary of Hurricane Camille making landfall along the
Mississippi Gulf Coast, devastating the coastline and the Pine Belt.
Camille made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane just after 11 p.m. in
Pass Christian with winds of 175 mph.
Other estimates placed the winds near 190 mph with gusts of 230 mph. The
exact speed will never be known since Camille destroyed all of the
weather sensors along the coast at landfall. Storm surge reached 24 feet
along the Mississippi Gulf Coast, which was the highest storm surge
ever recorded before Katrina. Camille is the second of only three storms
to ever make landfall as a Category 5 in the United States, the others
being the 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys, and Hurricane
Andrew in 1992..."
Photo credit: "In 1969, Hurricane Camille slammed into the Mississippi coast." Source: NOAA.
Extreme Weather Like the Louisiana Floods Should Serve As A Warning. Here's an excerpt from the Editorial Board at
The Washington Post: "
THE
FUTURE is being rigged against vulnerable people by a system in which
government and industry are complicit. No, we are not talking about the
electoral system — we are talking about the climate. The warming of the
globe, spurred by humanity’s dependence on fossil fuels, is weighting
the dice, as scientists often put it, in favor of increasingly frequent
and severe extreme weather phenomena. Extremely high temperatures are
the easiest to predict as warming proceeds. Also relatively foreseeable
is heavier rain, because warmer air carries more moisture. In other
words, do not be surprised if the country sees more costly disasters
such as the flooding that hit Baton Rouge over the past week. The Louisiana inundation is probably the worst natural catastrophe the country has seen in four years..."
Photo credit: "
Floodwaters surround a damaged home in St. Amant, La., on Aug. 21." (Jonathan Bachman/Reuters).
115,000 Louisiana residents have signed up for federal flood assistance. Details from ABC News.
5 Reasons Some Were Unaware of One of the Biggest Weather Disasters Since Sandy. Dr. Marshall Shepherd explains at Forbes: "...The
American public is somewhat conditioned to perceive a named or
higher-category storm as more of a threat. The meteorological conditions
that produced the Louisiana floods never received an official “name.” One
NOAA Weather Prediction Center discussion actually referred to it
as ”sheared inland tropical depression” or a monsoon depression.
While this is meaningful to the meteorological crowd (maybe), this
certainly is not going to resonate with the average citizen. Whatever it
“was,” more rainfall fell in parts of Louisiana than some cities in
California have seen in three to five years..." (File image: NOAA).
Why Obama Must Pay Attention to the Louisiana Floods. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from Eric Holthaus at
Newsweek: "...
Words
matter. And since Obama has staked a big part of his legacy on climate
change, he owes it to the victims of the flooding in Louisiana, and the
potential victims of future climate-related disasters, to address the
clear and present threat of climate change directly in Louisiana. The
President not only has the ability to improve the lives of the victims
of this tragedy, by motivating attention and donations to help their
plight, but to save countless future lives as well. To intentionally
avoid this responsibility is unforgivable. To be a true leader, you have
to change the status quo; when you're trying to lead on climate you
have to change the status quo much faster than "normal" politics might say is possible..." (Photo: American Red Cross).
These Louisiana Politicians Are Demanding Flood Aid, But Voted Against Sandy Relief. Here's an excerpt of a column at The Los Angeles Times: "Call
it logrolling or one hand washing the other, a generally recognized
fact in Washington is that if you want something for your district, it
pays to agree to the same thing for another guy’s district. That point
may have been lost on three Louisiana Congressmen when they voted
against a $50.5-billion relief package for the victims of Superstorm
Sandy. The 2012 storm ravaged coastal communities in New Jersey and New
York. Now they’re in the position of needing the same sort of aid for
their own state. How will that play out?..."
Photo credit: "
Voted against Sandy aid, wants Louisiana aid: Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La. (center)" AP.
California Firefighters Stretched Thin As Blazes Sweep State. The Associated Press reports: "
California's
state fire department is stretched thin just as the bone-dry state
enters the peak of its wildfire season, with vacancy rates exceeding 15
percent for some firefighters and supervisors. The vacancy rate is more
than 10 percent for some fire engine drivers, according to statistics
provided to The Associated Press. A five-year drought and changing
weather patterns have transformed what once was a largely summertime job
into an intense year-round firefight, said California Department of
Forestry and Fire Protection spokeswoman Janet Upton..."
Photo credit: "Laura
Sutton, center, the wife of California Department of Forestry and Fire
Protection firefighter Nick Sutton, joins others at a rally calling for
shorter hours and higher wages to retain firefighters, at the Capitol,
Monday, Aug. 22, 2016, in Sacramento, Calif. Statistics provided to The
Associated Press show vacancy rates exceeding 15 percent in some
CaliFire positions." (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)
Parachuting into Forest Fires for $15 an Hour. Good grief, talk about underpaid. Here's an excerpt from
CNN: "
Smokejumpers
are elite firefighters who parachute out of airplanes and into fiery
forests -- extremely dangerous work that pays just $15 an hour. That's
what the U.S. Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management pay them
to drop into the smoke-choked Western mountains and wild lands.
Smokejumpers haul 100-pound packs of equipment and dig trenches,
or fire lines, using a pick-axe called the Pulaski, which looks like a
Medieval weapon. The fire lines are basically trenches cleared of any
flammable vegetation used to stop the blaze from spreading..." (File photo: NOAA).
U.S. Warning: Zika Could Spread to Gulf States, Persist For One to Two Years. The Washington Post reports: "The
National Institutes of Health’s Anthony Fauci warned that Texas and
Louisiana could be next for Zika. In the weeks since mosquitoes carrying
the virus hit U.S. borders, they have already spread from a small
suburban community in South Florida to Miami’s most popular tourist
spot, South Beach. The development prompted a travel advisory from the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday urging pregnant
women to avoid the area. Fauci, director of the Institute of Allergy and
Infectious Diseases, speaking Sunday on ABC’s “This Week,” said the
situation is likely to get worse soon..."
Image credit: "
The
Post's Brady Dennis talks with Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, about the process
of getting a potential Zika vaccine tested and ready for the public." (Video: The Washington Post/Photo: Sammy Dallal for The Washington Post).
EPA: North Texas Earthquakes Likely Linked to Oil and Gas Drilling.
The Texas Tribune reports: "
Federal
regulators believe “there is a significant possibility” that recent
earthquakes in North Texas are linked to oil and gas activity, even if
state regulators won’t say so. That’s
according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s annual
evaluation of how the Texas Railroad Commission oversees thousands of
injection and disposal wells that dot state oilfields — underground resting places for millions of gallons of toxic waste from fracking and other drilling activities.
.."
Inside Shanghai Tower: China's Tallest Skyscraper Claims To Be The World's Greenest. Here's a clip from The Guardian: "...The Shanghai Tower, reaching 632 metres,
is the third “supertall” tower on the city’s iconic skyline. Looking
out from the 119th floor, the city lies below like a toy model, a
densely packed mass of streets and high-rise buildings. China
loves a world record, and its new building boasts plenty, including the
world’s fastest elevators, highest hotel and restaurant, and tallest
viewing platform. Reassuringly, it also required the largest ever cement
pouring for the foundations. But most importantly, the 128-storey tower
also claims to be the world’s greenest skyscraper. Awarded the top
green rating, LEED Platinum, the government is hailing the tower as a
sign of China’s growing green credentials..."
Photo credit: "
The newly completed Shanghai Tower, China’s tallest building, rises above the city." Photograph: Gensler
Elon Musk Leads Tesla Effort to House Roofs Entirely Out of Solar Panels. "Solar shingles" is the operative phrase here, according to a story at
The Guardian: "
A new venture spearheaded by Elon Musk
will create house roofs made entirely of solar panels, in a sweeping
expansion of Tesla’s clean energy ambitions. Tesla has finalized a
$2.6bn deal to buy solar power company SolarCity to produce solar “shingles” – photovoltaic material that would be fashioned into the shape of a house roof.
“I think this is really a fundamental part of achieving differentiated
product strategy, where you have a beautiful roof,” Musk said. “It’s not
a thing on the roof. It is the roof...” (Photo credit
here).
America's First Offshore Wind Farm May Power Up a New Industry. Justin Gillis reports at The New York Times: "...By global standards, the Block Island Wind Farm
is a tiny project, just five turbines capable of powering about 17,000
homes. Yet many people are hoping its completion, with the final blade
bolted into place at the end of last week, will mark the start of a new
American industry, one that could eventually make a huge contribution to
reducing the nation’s climate-changing pollution. The idea of building
turbines offshore, where strong, steady wind could, in theory, generate
large amounts of power, has long been seen as a vital step toward a
future based on renewable energy. Yet even as European nations installed
thousands of the machines, American proposals ran into roadblocks,
including high costs, murky rules about the use of the seafloor, and
stiff opposition from people who did not want their ocean views marred
by machinery..."
Photo credit: "One
of five turbines that make up the Block Island Wind Farm, the first
offshore wind farm in the United States, off the Rhode Island coast." Credit Kayana Szymczak for The New York Times.
11 Reasons To Be Excited About The Future of Technology. Medium has an uplifting, optimistic preview of what's to come: "In the year 1820, a person could expect to live less than 35 years, 94% of the global population lived in extreme poverty,
and less that 20% of the population was literate. Today, human life
expectancy is over 70 years, less that 10% of the global population
lives in extreme poverty, and over 80% of people
are literate. These improvements are due mainly to advances in
technology, beginning in the industrial age and continuing today in the
information age. There are many exciting new technologies that will
continue to transform the world and improve human welfare. Here are
eleven of them..."
MSP: 3rd Best (Large) Airport in the USA. So says Trip Advisor and after spending time at airports around the world I agree that it's always good coming home to MSP: "...Presented
for the first time this year, the awards highlight the most popular
domestic airports in four categories: shopping, dining, large airports
and medium airports (based on their size classification by the FAA).
Award winners were determined based on findings from a survey of more
than 114,000 TripAdvisor travelers from the U.S..."
TODAY: Wet start, then clearing skies, breezy. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 82
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, more comfortable. Low: 59
THURSDAY: Cool sun for Day 1 of the State Fair, a few PM clouds pop up. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 75
FRIDAY: Sunny, best day in sight. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 57. High: 77
SATURDAY: Showers and T-storms likely. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 60. High: 72
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, isolated T-shower. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 81
MONDAY: Plenty of sunshine, quiet. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 64. High: 84
TUESDAY: Warm sunshine, no complaints. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 65. High: 85
Climate Stories...
In Streak of Extreme Storms, What's the Role of Warming? Climate Central connects the dots: "...
A
1-in-1,000-year event — “we’re talking about something that’s not
likely to ever happen” — would be 21 inches falling over the same time
period, he said. There were nine stations in the area that topped that
1-in-1,000 level, two of which saw more than 25 inches in just two days.
The highest rainfall was recorded in Watson, La., which saw 31.39
inches. That obliterated the previous two-day rainfall record by more
than 7 inches. “It’s just insanity,” Keim said. Half of southern
Louisiana received 10 inches or more of rain, and it’s possible that
more homes were flooded in this event than by Hurricane Katrina, Keim
said. Many of those homes hadn’t flooded during the previous flood of
record, in 1983, or at any time since. “The whole region just got
absolutely hammered,” Keim said..."
Photo credit: "
Flooded homes are seen in St. Amant, La., on Aug. 15, 2016." Credit: REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman.
A Widening 80-Mile Crack is Threatening One of Antarctica's Biggest Ice Shelves. Chris Mooney reports at
The Washington Post: "..
.It’s
called an ice “shelf” because the entirety of this country-sized area
is covered by 350-meter-thick ice that is floating on top of deep ocean
waters. The crack in Larsen C grew around 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) in
length between 2011 and 2015. And as it grew, also became wider — by
2015, yawning some 200 meters in length. Since then, growth has only
continued — and now, a team of researchers
monitoring Larsen C say that with the intense winter polar night over
Antarctica coming to an end, they’ve been able to catch of glimpse of
what happened to the crack during the time when it could not be observed
by satellite. The result was astonishing..." (Image credit:
Project MIDAS).
Global Warming Has Now Made The Northwest Passage a Thing. Phil Plait explains at Slate: "...Roald
Amundsen was the first to successfully make his way through. It took
him three years in a small ship starting in 1903, and included getting
stuck in ice three times. Fast-forward. On Aug. 16—just days ago—a
250-meter-long, 1,070 passenger cruise ship, the Crystal Serenity, set sail, and is expected to make its way through the Northwest Passage in just eight days. How can it do so? Global warming. Over the past few years, the Arctic has warmed so much that the fabled passage has become a reality.
The ice melts so much in the summer that it’s not only possible for
ships to make their way through the archipelago, but it may be
commercially viable to do so..."
Climate Change Could Cost Millenials Trillions of Dollars in Lifetime Income. Mashable has details: "
Americans
in their 20s and 30s could lose trillions of dollars in potential
lifetime earnings as climate change disrupts the global economy and
weakens U.S. productivity, according to a new report
by NextGen Climate said. If countries fail to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions and limit the amount and pace of global warming, a 21-year-old
college graduate today could lose $126,000 in lifetime wages and
$187,000 in long-term savings and investments, the report found. This
would outrank the lost income due to student debt or wage stagnation..." (File photo: Peter Morgan, AP).
It's Hard to Talk About Climate Change. This Storytelling Project Wants To Make It Easier. Here's an excerpt from
Vox: "...
If people are aware of climate change, why do so many seem to ignore discussions about the future? And how do you engage people in the conversation? That's what DearTomorrow, an online project founded in 2014, is tackling. Co-founders Trisha Shrum and Jill Kubit are
asking people to create messages, photos, and videos to be opened in
the years 2030 and 2050. The idea came about after Shrum heard a speech
by Christiana Figueres, the executive secretary of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change. Figueres said she had a dream
where children look at her and ask, "You knew about climate change. What
did you do?..."
Tracking Changes in Great Lakes Temperature and Ice: New Approaches. Here's an excerpt from
NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory: "
In
a new study, scientists from GLERL, the University of Michigan, and
other institutions take a new look at changing ice cover and surface
water temperature in the Great Lakes. The paper,
set to be published in Climatic Change, is novel in two ways. While
previous research focused on changes in ice cover and temperature for
each lake as a whole, this study reveals how different regions of the
lakes are changing at different rates. While many scientists agree that,
over the long term, climate change will reduce ice cover in the Great
Lakes, this paper shows that changes in ice cover since the 1970s may
have been dominated by an abrupt decline in the late 1990s (coinciding
with the strong 1997-1998 winter El NiƱo), rather than gradually
declining over the whole period..."
Map credit: "
The
panel on the left shows the change in seasonal ice cover duration
(d/yr) from 1973 to 2013, and the panel on the right shows the change in
summer surface water temperature (°C/yr) from 1994 to 2013." Maps created by Kaye LaFond for NOAA GLERL.
Flooding, Extreme Weather and Record Temperatures: How Global Warming Puts It All Together. Here are 2 excepts from the blog of the
Union of Concerned Scientists:
Louisiana, August 2016: “I’m going home to see if I have a home”.
Ellicot City, Maryland, July 2016: “Oh my god. There’s people in the water”.
West Virginia, June 2016: “23 dead, thousands homeless after devastating flood”.
What
do these events (and 5 more since April 2015) have in common? They were
all considered very low probability, and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration’s Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center
created maps of annual exceedance probabilities
(AEPs) for all of them...One can’t help but notice that over these 15
months, 8 rain events were off the probability charts, so to speak. Yes,
climate change fingerprint is on these events, including the Louisiana flood, considered the worst natural disaster in the US since hurricane Sandy. Special conditions mainly fueled by climate change were behind this record event..."
Photo credit: "
Coast Guard photo by Petty Officer 1st Class Melissa Leake."
Historical Documents Reveal Arctic Sea Ice is Disappearing at Record Speed. Dana Nuccitelli reports at
The Guardian: "
Scientists
have pieced together historical records to reconstruct Arctic sea ice
extent over the past 125 years. The results are shown in the figure
(above). The red line, showing the extent at the end of the summer melt
season, is the most critical. Arctic sea ice extent in recent years is
by far the lowest it’s been, with about half of the historical coverage
gone, and the decline the fastest it’s been in recorded history..."
Graph credit: "
Time series of Arctic sea ice extent, 1850-2013, for March (blue line) and September (red line)." Illustration: Walsh et al. (2016)
Think It's Hot Now? Just Wait. Climate scientist Heidi Cullen connects the dots at
The New York Times: "
July
wasn’t just hot — it was the hottest month ever recorded, according to
NASA. And this year is likely to be the hottest year on record. Fourteen
of the 15 hottest years have occurred since 2000, as heat waves have
become more frequent, more intense and longer lasting. A study
in the journal Nature Climate Change last year found that three of
every four daily heat extremes can be tied to global warming. This map
provides a glimpse of our future if nothing is done to slow climate
change. By the end of the century, the number of 100-degree days will
skyrocket, making working or playing outdoors unbearable, and sometimes deadly..."
Young Conservatives to GOP on Climate: Hello? Are You Listening? Here's an excerpt from
MTV: "...
A Monmouth poll from December found that 75 percent of Americans aged 18 to 34 think the government should be doing more to prevent
climate change. On top of that, groups that cater to conservative
climate-caring types have been proliferating as Earth keeps breaking
temperature records. There is Meyaard-Schaap’s aforementioned Young Evangelicals for Climate Action, which tries to get politicians and faith leaders to think about climate change as a moral issue. There are Young Conservatives for Energy Reform and republicEN,
which advocate that being conscious of the environment is just
economically smart. They definitely aren’t in total agreement with the
more progressive and familiar environmental groups out there when it
comes to how to solve, or at least mitigate, climate change, favoring
free markets and local solutions with no regulations, but they are in
firm agreement on the science and the fact that they want their party to
acknowledge that this problem exists in the first place..."
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