83 F. high in the Twin Cities Monday.
80 F. average high on August 22 (drop of 4 degrees since mid-July).
82 F. high on August 22, 2015.
August 23, 1955: Hail in Houston County results in drifts up to a foot deep at Rushmore.
A Fire-hose of Data - But So Little Weather Wisdom
"Life is very complicated, so don’t try to find out answers. Because when you find answers life changes the questions" wrote Tina Dima.
So many choices - no wonder we're all neurotic. Life seemed simpler back in the 60s and 70s: a handful of TV stations and the local newspaper. One weather model. Today? A blizzard of facts, factoids and digital garbage - endless sources of "information", much of it dubious, and now hundreds of weather models. I remind my two boys to focus on "trusted sources", because the Internet is one rough neighborhood.
When the public gets conflicting severe storm warning information they are more likely sit on their hands and do nothing. Not good. A few models bring a tropical storm or hurricane into Florida & the eastern Gulf of Mexico late next week. I'm still skeptical, but stay tuned and let's see if there's model continuity in the coming days.
A couple T-storms flare up tonight and early Wednesday ahead of the next cool front. The approach of warmer, juicier air sets off more T-storms next weekend. Not a steady downpour but have a Plan B.
I have shocking news: I don't see any 90s, no hot fronts, at this year's Minnesota State Fair. How is that even possible?
Heating Up in the Tropics. We're tracking at least 3 tropical systems in the Atlantic (Fiona and Gaston); Invest-99 has the greatest potential to impact the Bahamas and possibly the southeastern USA sometime next week. Graphic: NOAA.
Some polar-orbiting satellites scan the Earth and collect data in a conical pattern, so while they are constantly changing position all over the globe, their retrievals are generated from the same scan angle. This allows them to take very precise measurements and stay well calibrated with other conical scanners, Wimmers explains, but it constrains TPW data collection to uniform surfaces like oceans. Land was simply too uneven, especially in locations with varied topography.
- See more at: http://news.wisc.edu/a-better-way-to-predict-the-weather-on-sea-and-over-land/#sthash.eKs54QpM.dpuf
Why Obama Must Pay Attention to the Louisiana Floods. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed from Eric Holthaus at Newsweek: "...Words matter. And since Obama has staked a big part of his legacy on climate change, he owes it to the victims of the flooding in Louisiana, and the potential victims of future climate-related disasters, to address the clear and present threat of climate change directly in Louisiana. The President not only has the ability to improve the lives of the victims of this tragedy, by motivating attention and donations to help their plight, but to save countless future lives as well. To intentionally avoid this responsibility is unforgivable. To be a true leader, you have to change the status quo; when you're trying to lead on climate you have to change the status quo much faster than "normal" politics might say is possible..." (Photo: American Red Cross).
Photo credit: "Daniel Stover, 17, wipes his head as he helps rescue people’s belongings in Sorrento, Louisiana, on Saturday." Photograph: Max Becherer/AP.
Louisiana Ignored Dire Forecasts and Flash Flood Warnings. The fact that this epic storm didn't have a name, it wasn't a tropical storm or hurricane, helped to downplay overall consumer awareness of what was coming. Here's an excerpt of an interview at NPR:
SHEPHERD: People have a hard time grasping things that they haven't experienced.
KAILATH: According to the research Shepherd cites, people around the world are going to see more and more weather for which they have no reference point.
SHEPHERD: People just assume a heavy rainstorm is a heavy rainstorm, just like the storms they experienced growing up as a child or perhaps 10 years ago.
KAILATH: But in fact, Shepherd says, today's storms are different - more destructive and only getting stronger. Inland communities like Baton Rouge haven't experienced floods like this before, but increasingly, they'll have to learn to prepare for them anyway. Ultimately, Shepherd says, the responsibility for getting ahead of a disaster is personal..." (File photo: NOAA).
Photo credit: "Debris is seen floating in flood water in front of a damaged home in St. Amant, Louisiana, U.S., August 21, 2016." REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman.
Photo credit: "Voted against Sandy aid, wants Louisiana aid: Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La. (center)" AP
Map credit: "The panel on the left shows the change in seasonal ice cover duration (d/yr) from 1973 to 2013, and the panel on the right shows the change in summer surface water temperature (°C/yr) from 1994 to 2013." Maps created by Kaye LaFond for NOAA GLERL.
Image credit: "Some scientists suspect melting Himalayan ice from climate change is changing rain pattterns enough to help reduce oxygen in the Arabian Sea, leading to massive green blooms of Notiluca scintillans, a harmful algae that is threatening to transform the region's marine food web." Image: NASA Earth Observatory.
Photo credit: " Credit Caroline Kristof.
Image credit: iStock, Washington Post.
What Does a Dog Want More - "Good Boy" or Treats? My dog wants both. Here's a clip from The Washington Post: "...New research shows that my effort may be overkill. According to the study, published online in the journal Social, Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, more dogs prefer praise over food. The finding by Emory University neuroscientist Gregory Berns followed a novel method of investigation: He used an MRI to scan a dog’s brain while the dog was awake and unrestrained..."
TODAY: Windy and warm - feels like July. Winds: S 15-25. High: 87
TUESDAY NIGHT: Sticky with a few T-storms around. Low: 67
WEDNESDAY: Early puddles, then clearing. Winds: W 10-15. High: 83
THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, comfortable. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 60. High: 74
FRIDAY: Lukewarm sun, late thunder up north? Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 56. High: 76
SATURDAY: Patchy clouds, few T-storms. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 60. High: 78
SUNDAY: Unsettled, nagging thunder risk. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 65. High: 82
MONDAY: More numerous T-storms, some heavy? Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 68. High: 81
Louisiana, August 2016: “I’m going home to see if I have a home”.
Ellicot City, Maryland, July 2016: “Oh my god. There’s people in the water”.
West Virginia, June 2016: “23 dead, thousands homeless after devastating flood”.
What do these events (and 5 more since April 2015) have in common? They were all considered very low probability, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center created maps of annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) for all of them...One can’t help but notice that over these 15 months, 8 rain events were off the probability charts, so to speak. Yes, climate change fingerprint is on these events, including the Louisiana flood, considered the worst natural disaster in the US since hurricane Sandy. Special conditions mainly fueled by climate change were behind this record event..."
Photo credit: "Coast Guard photo by Petty Officer 1st Class Melissa Leake."
Graph credit: "Time series of Arctic sea ice extent, 1850-2013, for March (blue line) and September (red line)." Illustration: Walsh et al. (2016)
Photo credit: "Peter Wadhams in the Arctic in 2007: ‘We may able to raise the Thames barrier in Britain but in Bangladesh, people will be drowned."