Saturday, October 15, 2016

Highs Once Again Near 70 Sunday - Storms Possible Sunday Night

Windy Friday
You probably couldn't help but notice the windy conditions around the region Friday. Winds gusted over 40 mph at times during the day, helping to strip some of the trees of their leaves.
The peak wind gust across the state (at an airport location) was 47 mph, set just after noon in Marshall. For a list of local peak wind gusts from NWS Chanhassen, click here.
Saturday's Warm Weather
Did you enjoy the mid-October warmth across the region Saturday? Highs were a good 10-15 degrees above average across most of the state, reaching into the 60s and 70s. The high in the Twin Cities was 69 - 10 degrees above average. The last time the Twin Cities saw a high of 69 or higher on October 15th was back in 1996 (71). Highs and departure from average across the other climate locations in the state:
  • St. Cloud: 67 (10 degrees above average)
  • Duluth: 68 (16 degrees above average)
  • International Falls: 67 (15 degrees above average)
  • Rochester: 70 (11 degrees above average)
The coolest spot in the state Saturday? Grand Marais, which only saw a high of 55.
Today's Important Weather Note:
In Search of Average - Looking Ahead to Winter By Paul Douglas "What a severe yet master artist old Winter is.... No longer the canvas and the pigments, but the marble and the chisel" wrote John Burroughs. About this time every year it feels like we're all about to embark on a really bad 5-month vacation. From warmth. I'm not anti-snow. I LOVE snow. I'd be even more pro-snow if I could develop the technology to pile it up on trails and not the freeways. On Friday's edition of TPT "Almanac" Cathy Wurzer asked if heavy summer rains might translate into heavy winter snows. There's no evidence of a strong correlation but my semi-educated gut feeling: this will be a colder, snowier winter than last winter - yet still wind up milder than average, overall. Place your bets. Nothing wintry brewing just yet, in fact don't be surprised if you hear a growl of thunder tonight, again Monday, along the leading edge of cooler air. Highs return to the 50s later this week; another shot at frost by Friday morning. Some close-in suburbs may wind up with a growing season nearly one month longer than average. Uh, when has our weather ever been "average"?
Photo: St. Croix State Park on Saturday, taken by D.J. Kayser.
Extended Forecast for Minneapolis
SUNDAY: Some sun, T-storm tonight. High 73. Low 64. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind E 8-13 mph. MONDAY: Mild & humid, few showers, T-showers. High 71. Low 50. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 10-15 mph. TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy and cooler. High 63. Low 45. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 8-13 mph. WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, feels like October. High 56. Low 43. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph. THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, still cooling down. High 51. Low 35. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-15 mph. FRIDAY: Early frost, bright sunshine. High 52. Low 37. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 3-8 mph. SATURDAY: High clouds increase, a bit milder. High 55. Low 48. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 8-13 mph.
This Day in Weather History October 16th
1996: Early evening storms produce 3/4 to 1 3/4 inch hail in Nicollet, Dakota, Brown, Watonwan, and Martin Counties. In Scott County near St. Patrick, hail fell intermittently for an hour and the area received 3 1/2 inches of rainfall. In Watonwan County, wind gusts up to 63 mph moved several garages off their foundations, destroyed a cattle shed and a corn crib, and uprooted and toppled trees. Southwest of Lake Crystal in Blue Earth County, a garage was blown over onto a vehicle. A 250 gallon fuel tank was also blown over. 1937: A snowstorm dumps 10 inches at Bird Island. 1880: An early blizzard occurs in Minnesota. The blizzard struck western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas especially hard. Over a foot of snow fell in western counties. Railroads were blocked, and damage was done to Great Lakes shipping.
Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis October 16th
Average High: 58F (Record: 86F set in 1938) Average Low: 40F (Record: 23F set in 1952) Average Precipitation: 0.08" (Record: 2.10" set in 1984)
Average Snow: 0.1" (Record: 0.5" in 1992) ________________________________________________
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis October 16th
Sunrise: 7:31 AM Sunset: 6:26 PM   *Length Of Day: 10 hours, 54 minutes and 44 seconds *Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~3 minutes and 1 second *Next Sunrise That Is BEFORE 7 AM: November 6th (6:59 am) (Due to the fall back to standard time that occurs that morning) *Next Sunset That Is At/Before 6 PM: November 1st (6:00 pm) *Next Sunset That Is At/Before 5 PM: November 6th (4:54 pm) (Due to the fall back to standard time that occurs that morning)
Minnesota Weather Outlook
Temperatures across southern Minnesota Sunday will be similar to what they were Saturday, all due to the cold front that passed through Saturday returning as a warm front. That could help spark off a few showers and storms, but they should hold off until the evening/overnight hours. Across northern Minnesota, however, temperatures will be a good 5-10 degrees cooler versus Saturday.
Enjoy the 70s the next couple days, as heading into the middle of the week temperatures will be on the downswing. The extended forecast shows temperatures staying cooler though the last full week of the month.
While rain chances are in the forecast Sunday Night into Monday Night, the models are showing rainfall totals will generally be under a half an inch in the metro.
National Weather Stories
Across the nation Sunday, the Northwest will continue to see rain from systems impacting the region. The good news there is that wind won't be as much of a concern as it was on Saturday. Rain will be possible as far south as Los Angeles on the west coast. Elsewhere, some showers and storms will occur across the upper Midwest and Northeast. A few storms will also be possible across Florida.
Temperatures will be warmer than average across a good section of the country Sunday - the only exceptions being out in the western United States and across Florida.
Highs could even reach record levels Sunday afternoon across portions of Kansas, Colorado and Texas.
Thanks for checking in and have a great Sunday! Don't forget you can follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) or on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!
- D.J. Kayser

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