59 F. average high on October 14.
68 F. high on October 14, 2015.
October 15, 1968: Unseasonably warm weather moves into central and southern Minnesota. The high was 85 in the Twin Cities.
October 15, 1899: Heavy rain falls, with 3.2 inches in the St. Cloud area and 2.1 inches in Willmar.
Not Bad for October, But Not Quite Indian Summer
Considering we could be knee-deep in slush I don't take 70s in mid-October for granted. Not when the sun is as high in the sky as it was in late February. A lukewarm breeze, without the humidity, bugs and raging thunderstorms.
At the rate we're going this may just be Minnesota's wettest year on record. Dr. Mark Seeley reports a record 50.6 inches of rain in Waseca, with over 2 months left to add to the tally.
Warmth and moisture was ideal for Minnesota's corn crop: a record 1.49 billion bushels expected; higher than 2015's previous record of 1.43 billion bushels. Assuming farmers can get out into their mud-swept fields.
A surge of milder air sets off a smear of clouds this weekend; if the sun breaks through for a couple hours we could hit 70F. The best chance of showers and T-storms comes Sunday night with a gradual cooling trend next week. No drama.
By the way, the term "Indian Summer" refers to unusually mild weather following the first frost, which MSP still hasn't seen, at least not officially.
Then again this is America. You have the freedom to call it whatever you want.
Who am I to stop you?
Temperatures Trend Above Average into Tuesday. No bitter air shaping up looking out 7-10 days, although it will cool off again by the middle of next week. Parts of the Twin Cities metro (close-in suburbs) could, in theory, wind up with a growing season 30 days or more longer than average. ECMWF data: WeatherBell.
Cold and Stormy Correction by Late October? Confidence levels are low, but the 2-week 500 mb forecast (GFS) suggests strong zonal winds buckling, carving out a deep trough of stormy low pressure over the Plains and Midwest. Which could, in theory, translate into a series of rain events, even wet snow in time for Halloween.
Hurricane Force Winds Coming to Oregon/Washington State. Dan Satterfield has more details on the 1-2 punch; an even stronger storm comes ashore later today with damaging winds and torrential rains.
Hurricane Matthew Brought 1,000 Year Record Rainstorms to North Carolina. This would be the 6th thousand-year flood to strike the USA since October of 2015 (Texas, South Carolina, West Virginia, Maryland, Louisiana - now North Carolina). Here's an excerpt from Pacific Standard: "The storm swept in by Hurricane Matthew has produced rainfall that exceeds the level expected about once every 1,000 years, according to a statistical analysis using National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data. Matthew broke numerous rainfall records in some of North Carolina’s toughest-hit towns, marking another spike in this year’s extreme weather. The new rainfall records were enabled by warming in the ocean and coastal atmospheres, which hold more water as temperatures increase — with a few cities across the Southeast reporting record levels of air moisture during the storm..." (October 6 file image: NOAA and AerisWeather).
Wind Patterns In The Lowest Layers of Supercell Storms Key Tornadoes. Here's an excerpt of an interesting press release at EurekAlert! Science News: "...We noticed that the biggest difference between tornadic and nontornadic storms was the wind in the lowest 500 meters near the storm," Coffer says. "Specifically, it was the difference in the way the air rotated into the storm in the updraft." All storms have an updraft, in which air is drawn upward into the storm, feeding it. In supercells, the rising air also rotates due to wind shear, which is how much the wind changes in speed and direction as you go higher in the atmosphere. Coffer's simulations demonstrated that if wind shear conditions are right in the lowest 500 meters, then the air entering the updraft spirals like a perfectly thrown football. This leads to a supercell that is configured to be particularly favorable for producing a tornado, as broad rotation at the ground is stretched by the updraft's lift, increasing the speed of the spin and resulting in a tornado..."
File photo credit: Caryn Hill.
President Obama Orders Government To Prepare for "Space Weather" Chaos. God help us if an X-Class solar flare hits the U.S. directly, because we may get an instant glimpse of life in the mid-1800s. Here's an excerpt from NBC News: "Turning his attention to the heavens — and how turbulence there could create chaos on Earth — President Obama directed the federal government Thursday to come up with a plan to deal with "space weather." Space weather, by the way, is a catch-all for disturbances in the area between the sun and Earth, such as solar flares, that wreak havoc on the electrical power grid, GPS systems, aviation equipment, satellites and other technology that have become integral to human life..."
Photo credit: " Joe Acaba / NASA via AP.
Photo credit: "
Image credit: arizonaehomes.com.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy, breezy and milder. Passing shower or sprinkle. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 68
SATURDAY NIGHT: Patchy clouds. Low: 51
SUNDAY: Still mild for October. Lot's of clouds - few T-storms late. Winds: SE 8-13. High: 69
MONDAY: Gray, turning cooler, few sprinkles. Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 56. High: 68
TUESDAY: More clouds than sun, temps. close to average. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 53. High: 61
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, feels like fall again. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 43. High: 57
THURSDAY: Early frost in the suburbs, blue sky. Winds: NE 7-12. Wake-up: 37. High: 52
FRIDAY: Clouds increase, no weather drama. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 38. High: near 60
Scientists Warn Negative Emissions Are a "Moral Hazard". Will we ever be able to (cost-effectively) suck CO2 out of the air to slow the global warming trend? Perhaps - but can we count on it? Here's an excerpt from Climate Central: "Removing carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere to prevent global warming from becoming catastrophic may be a fool’s game amounting to a “moral hazard par excellence,” according to a paper published Thursday in the journal Science. Nobody knows if atmospheric carbon removal — known as negative emissions — will work, and it could delay critical cuts to emissions while tacitly giving people license to pollute, the paper says..." (File image: NASA).