Paul's Prediction: Coldest January In 3 Years
We don't know what we don't know. Science is never "settled" - it's a process. Connect the dots. What does it mean and why should we care?
Last week temperatures rose to 32F at the North Pole; nearly 50F warmer than average. It's still emerging science but some researchers speculate that rapid warming of the Arctic is displacing the coldest air southward - and impacting jet stream steering winds, increasing the potential for bitter outbreaks at lower latitudes.
Wait, arctic warming may increase the risk of Siberian air here at home? Go figure. But big swings in weather are increasing.
With that rambling preamble in mind I'm predicting the coldest January in 3 years. Subzero weather is likely the middle of next week; again mid-January. Each outbreak may bring 2-4 days below 0F. More character-building cold.
A quiet week is shaping up - probably dry for New Year's weekend plans. Models spin up a snowstorm next Monday, followed by more fun with negative numbers.
2016 was the wettest year since 1871 in the Twin Cities with 40.32 inches of water. A warm and soggy year.
2016: Wettest Year On Record for the Twin Cities. 40.32" of precipitation as of December 25, according to the local office of the National Weather Service. For perspective, 1981-2010 average (mean) precipitation for the Twin Cities is 30.61", according to NOAA.
10-Day Snowfall Potential. A couple inches predicted for Denver and major east coast cities (no big coastal storms brewing yet - give it a couple weeks). Over a foot is predicted for the Twin Cities roughly 1 week from today; with heavy snows from Boise to the Cascade Range. GFS guidance: NOAA and Tropicaltidbits.com.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, a little milder. Winds: SW 8-13. High: 34
THURSDAY: Lot's of clouds, few flurries. Wake-up: 24. High: near 30
FRIDAY: Overcast, relatively mild for late December. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 20. High: 31
NEW YEAR'S EVE: Slow clearing, colder wind kicks in. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 21. High: 29
NEW YEAR'S DAY: Patchy clouds, quiet start to 2017. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 16. High: 31
MONDAY: Snow develops during the day. Winds: E 15-25. Wake-up: 20. High: 26
State governments will serve as an important bulwark against any attempt by President-elect Donald Trump to roll back the progress the United States has made in addressing climate change. And that’s good news for the planet. Over the last decade or so, most states have reduced their greenhouse gas emissions by promoting energy efficiency and renewable fuels. These trends should continue as clean energy costs continue to decline and, in some parts of the country, fall below the cost of dirtier fuels like coal. The Brookings Institution reported this month that between 2000 and 2014, 33 states and the District of Columbia cut carbon emissions while expanding their economies. That list includes red states run by Republican legislatures, like Alaska, Georgia, Tennessee and West Virginia..."
The study found that Americans who experience more record highs than lows in temperature are more likely to believe the earth is warming. Conversely, Americans who live in areas that have experienced record low temperatures, such as southern portions of Ohio and the Mississippi River basins, are more skeptical that the earth is warming. According to the study, the language of climate communications may be key, with the phrase ‘global warming’ resulting in a cognitive disconnect. That term might have led residents living in areas that experienced an unusually cold winter to doubt that climate change is occurring. “Who do Americans trust about climate change; scientists or themselves?” said Robert Kaufmann, professor in the department of geography and the Center for Energy & Environmental Studies at Boston University and lead author of the paper. “For many Americans, the answer seems to be themselves.” The researchers also found that a recent period of lower-than-average temperatures offset the effect of a long warming period, further supporting their findings that people’s belief in climate change is local and experiential..."
Photo credit: "If it’s hot, it’s global warming, but if not …" @bberwyn photo.
Guest Opinion: Meteorologists Caught Up in Climate Debate. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed that resonated from a meteorologist at Mail Tribune in Medford, Oregon: "...There is no massive conspiracy to create and maintain a global warming scare. Hundreds of mature, dedicated, sincere meteorological scientists have worked hard during their entire careers to advance climate science and develop the best predictions. Their work has been critically reviewed for decades by hundreds of their peers - independent scientists - in the domain of open scientific literature. Best available data and computer predictions now indicate that the human race has become capable of inadvertently affecting the global climate. That effect is already apparent, and is now superimposed on natural climate changes that continue to occur. The new global climate will have some destructive characteristics for humans. Our problem now is that human society was constructed to be consistent with the climate of the last few thousand years. The new climate will be different..."