Friday, June 2, 2017

Approaching 90 Again Saturday With A Few Strong Storms Possible

"Abnormally Dry" Conditions Across Northwest Minnesota

You may be thinking "What drought?" Yes, while we have been quite rainy over the past month across portions of Southern and Northeastern Minnesota, northwestern portions of the state have been missing out on the moisture. While many areas from Silver Bay south and westward to Ortonville have received 3"+ of rain since early May, areas of Northeast Minnesota have only picked up 1-2" of rain.

You can see a 1-2" rain deficit over the past 30 days across the northeastern portion of the state on this rainfall departure from average map vs. the 1-2" rain surplus over the Twin Cities over the same time period.

Due to the recent dryness across parts of northern Minnesota, the USDA/UNL Drought Monitor on Thursday expanded an "abnormally dry" designated area. This area includes cities such as Fargo and International Falls, and covers approximately 29% of the state.
First 90 Of 2017 Friday

We saw the first 90 degree day of 2017 Friday here in the Twin Cities, so it's a good time to take look back at the number of 90s last year. Our first 90 this year is a bit behind last year, as we saw it occur on May 6th. The last time we hit 90 here in the Twin Cities was back on August 10th. We saw a total of thirteen 90 degree days last year, a little over the average of 10.6 days.
This first 90 of the year is right around average. Typically we see our first 90 either on June 10th (if you look at the entire record for the Twin Cities) or June 2nd (if you look at the 1981-2010 climatological 30-year period), so either way it has occurred when would expect it. Meanwhile, this type of weather makes me want to sit in front of my air conditioner all day... I'm personally not a fan of this heat.

Approaching 90 Today - Cooler Weather For Sunday
By DJ Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas
Have you turned on your air conditioning yet?
It's like Mother Nature knew as soon as June came around to throw open the windows and let the heat and
humidity quickly flow right back into Minnesota. Highs will approach 90 once again today across southern Minnesota, and with dewpoints in the 60s we will certainly get our first real taste of summer weather.
How warm we get today, though, all depends on how fast a cold front moves across the state. That front could spark off a few stronger storms this afternoon, but if it holds off long enough I could see us getting within a few degrees of the record of 92.
Cooler weather will filter in behind the front to end the weekend and begin next week, with highs returning to the 70s and low 80s. There is an isolated storm chance during the afternoon hours Sunday, but it will be a much more pleasant day across the region for outdoor activities.
In other words, the heat and humidity today will just be a sneak peek of what’s to come later this summer.
Extended Forecast for Minneapolis

SATURDAYHot & sticky. Some afternoon storms - a few could be strong. High 89. Low 62. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
SUNDAYCooler with some isolated afternoon storms. High 82. Low 58. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind 5-10 mph.
MONDAY: Nice day expected. High 78. Low 57. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.
TUESDAY: Sunny start. A few afternoon clouds. High 78. Low 58. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 3-5 mph.
WEDNESDAY: A few scattered showers. High 79. Low 59. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Lingering showers. A touch cooler. High 75. Low 58. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: Warming trend starts again. High 77. Low 57. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind 5-10 mph.
This Day in Weather History
June 3rd
1955: Seven people are killed on Lake Traverse when their boat is overturned by strong winds from a thunderstorm.
Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
June 3rd
Average High: 75F (Record: 92F set in 1923)
Average Low: 55F (Record: 34F set in 1945)
Average Precipitation: 0.13" (Record: 1.71" set in 1914)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 3rd
Sunrise: 5:28 AM
Sunset: 8:54 PM
*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 25 minutes and 47 seconds
*Daylight Added Since Yesterday: ~1 minutes and 16 seconds

*Earliest Twin Cities Sunrise During The Year: June 13th-17th (5:25 AM)
*Next Sunset At/After 9 PM: June 12th (9:00 PM)
Minnesota Weather Outlook
Saturday will be another warm day across the state, with temperatures climbing to near 90 in parts of southern Minnesota. Our record in the Twin Cities for the day is 92 set back in 1923, so we could be on the cusp of a record breaking day locally. Temperatures will be a touch cooler in northern Minnesota, with the coolest weather expected along the North Shore. A cold front will be moving across the state during the day - that is likely to spark off some showers and storms for eastern Minnesota during the afternoon.
Highs will be far above average across southern Minnesota during the day Saturday, with readings a good 10-15 degrees above the average. We'll still be above average across northern Minnesota, but temperatures will hang back closer to average.
After the heat and humidity Saturday, we do see a little bit of a cool down for the second half of the weekend and into next week. Highs are likely to be in the 70s most of next week. The long range does indicate the potential of another warm up as we head toward the middle of the month.

Storms will pop along and ahead of a cold front moving across the state Saturday afternoon, bringing the potential of a few heavy downpours and even some severe weather. The best chance of any precipitation looks to be across the Arrowhead, but a few isolated storms are possible across central/southern Minnesota as well.
A few of the storms that pop with the cold front Saturday could be on the strong side. There is a marginal risk of severe weather across eastern Minnesota in place from the Storm Prediction Center for the day, with a slight risk across the Arrowhead. The threat from any severe storms is mainly hail and strong winds.
The best chance of picking up up to a half an inch of rain through the weekend appears to be across portions of northern Minnesota, with areas of western and southern Minnesota only picking up a few hundredths to tenths of an inch.
After the weekend rain chances, we dry out for a little bit here in the Twin Cities. The next system that could bring some rain to the region will be next Wednesday/Thursday, with another chance of rain into next weekend.
National Weather Outlook
Saturday Forecast
It'll be a warm day across portions of the western and central U.S., with highs climbing into the 80s and 90s in spots. A typical June heat wave will continue across parts of the Desert Southwest, where highs in Phoenix will be in the 100s. The coolest weather will be observed in the Pacific Northwest and into New England. In parts of New England, highs may only reach the 50s during the day Saturday.

If you like the summer warmth, you will definitely want to be in either most of the western U.S. or in the Northern Plains/upper Midwest. These areas will see highs that are a good 10-15 degrees above average for this time of year. The coolest weather will be across portions of the south, Florida, and New England, where highs could be 5-15 degrees below average.

A few systems over the next several days will bring copious amounts of precipitation for areas of the Gulf Coast, with the potential of 2-4"+ falling through early next Wednesday. We could also see rainfall amounts of 1-3" across parts of the Northeast.

What Could The Summer Hold?

As we head into the summer months (June through August), the Climate Prediction Center is calling for the potential of above average temperatures across a good portion of the lower 48 and across all of Alaska. The best chance of seeing near-normal temperatures looks to be across parts of the upper Midwest and the Central and Northern Plains.

Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Center is calling for the potential of above average precipitation across portions of the central U.S. into the Rockies, from Montana and North Dakota south into Texas between June and August. Above average precipitation is also possible across a good portion of Alaska.
Beginning Of The Atlantic Tropical Season
While we already had our first named storm back in April, Thursday marked the official start of the of the 2017 Atlantic tropical season. Above is the list of names for the season, from Arlene to Whitney.
The tropical season forecast from various agencies are showing the potential of an above average season in the Atlantic. The NOAA forecast released last week shows a forecast of 11-17 named systems. Meanwhile, the Colorado State University forecast was just updated Thursday and shows a forecast of 13 named systems, which is up from the 11 systems they had in the forecast in April.
No One In The Trump Administration Wants To Talk Climate Change
Did you listen to Trump's speech withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement from Wednesday? Notice how he didn't mention anything about climate change in it? CNN noticed: "The pattern of the White House has been to turn away from the discussion of climate change without taking the step to argue directly that global warming isn't real. Instead, there is an administration-wide reluctance to avoid the topic altogether."
Fact Checking Trump's Climate Speech
The Washington Post took some time to fact check President Trump's speech. It is certainly worth a read - here is just the first paragraph: "In his speech announcing his decision to withdraw from the Paris Accord on climate change, President Trump frequently relied on dubious facts and unbalanced claims to make his case that the agreement would hurt the U.S. economy. Notably, he only looked at one side of the scale — claiming the agreement left the United States at a competitive disadvantage, harming U.S. industries. But he often ignored the benefits that could come from tackling climate change, including potential green jobs."
Minnesota Just One State Fighting Climate Change On Their Own
The good news is that states and cities are still going on their own to fight climate change. Minnesota is one of those states. More from the Star Tribune: "With a plan adopted in 2007, the state has been a national leader in pursuing an aggressive plan to reduce emissions of the chemicals that cause climate change. And though Minnesota has missed its targets in recent years, President Trump’s controversial decision to pull the United States out of the global climate deal struck last year won’t change what has been slow and steady progress, state environmental officials said Thursday."
Two Other Countries Not In The Paris Agreement
There are two other countries that are not part of the Paris climate agreement: Syria and Nicaragua. While the circumstances in Syria are likely clear, Nicaragua stands out because they felt the agreement doesn't do enough. More on that from Slate: "Nicaragua’s Paul Oquist, who represented the country at the Paris negotiations in 2015, has said that Nicaragua’s main problem with the Paris Agreement is that countries’ pledges to fight climate change—known as “intended national determined contributions”—are voluntary. Oquist says that because the commitments aren’t binding, the climate change agreement will fail to meet its goal."
Global Greenhouse Gases Increase In 2016... Again
Just because President Trump has pulled out of the Paris climate agreement certainly doesn't mean that climate reporting will stop. NOAA is reporting that carbon dioxide had its second largest jump on record in 2016. More from Inside Climate News: "Concentrations of other greenhouse gases, including methane and nitrous oxide, also increased last year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's latest update to its greenhouse gas index. The heating effect of all combined greenhouses gases in the atmosphere increased by 2.5 percent in 2016, according to the index."
10.1% Of U.S. Electricity From Solar And Wind In March
Led by California and Iowa, solar and wind energy for the first time supplied over 10% of the electricity used in the U.S. during the month of March according to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Electricity Information Administration. More from PV Magazine: "EIA’s latest edition of Electric Power Monthly shows that during March wind and solar together met 10.1% of U.S. electricity demand. This the first time that these two sources combined have ever met more than 10% of power, a fact which was first reported in the TerraJoule newsletter."
Thanks for checking in and have a great Saturday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!
 - D.J. Kayser

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