Meteorologist Paul Douglas writes about Minnesota weather daily, trying to go beyond the "highs" and "lows" of the weather story to discuss current trends and some of the how's and why's of meteorology. Rarely is our weather dull - every day is a new forecast challenge. Why is the weather doing what it's doing? Is climate change a real concern, and if so, how will my family be affected? Climate is flavoring all weather now, and I'll include links to timely stories that resonate with me.
Thursday, June 1, 2017
Isolated Storms Possible Late Friday - 90s Possible By Saturday!
First Month With Below Average Temperatures Since...
been a while since we had a month where the average temperature ended
up below average in the Twin Cities... and in St. Cloud as well. The
last time we saw that was in August 2015. Last month ended up starting a
new streak: one month in a row with below average temperatures. Yes, it
was just 0.6° below average in the Twin Cities, but that still is good
enough. That was on the back of an above average month of precipitation
with 4.80" of liquid falling in the Twin Cities. St. Cloud even ended up
seeing an inch of snow!
meteorological spring (March through May) ended up being the 26th
warmest and 27th wettest in the Twin Cities thanks to an average
temperture of 47.7° and 9.93" of precipitation. A lot of that was in the
form of rain, as only 5.2" of snow fell. You can check out more stats
for St. Cloud and Eau Claire above.
First 90 Degree High Possible on Saturday! By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
Here it comes. Are you ready?
It's too hot!
Whew! There. I said it... I feel better now.
Minnesotans tend to be a little picky about their weather. Not too hot, not too cold, but just right. Goldilocks certainly wouldn't be a fan of the warm front blowing into town over the next couple of days. Highs approaching 90 degrees with dewpoints in the 60s may have many muttering similar objections.
While we haven't had a 90 degree day since August 10th, 2016, climatologically speaking we're right on track as we typically average our first 90 on June 2nd. The storm system responsible for our sticky summer weather will also prompt a few late day showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe.
By the way, May finished 0.6 degrees below average, which ends an impressive streak of 20 consecutive months with above average temperatures in the Twin Cities! Unreal.
June will most certainly start off on a warm note, but extended forecasts have us leveling off in the 70s early next week. More comfortable and perfectly average.
Extended Forecast for Minneapolis
FRIDAY: Sticky sun. PM T-storm. High 85. Low 68. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 10-15 mph. SATURDAY: Hot & sticky. Lingering strong storm. High 90. Low 62. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind WSW 10-15 mph. SUNDAY: Sun returns. Still mild, not as sticky. High 82. Low 58. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph. MONDAY: Few clouds, fresh breeze. High 78. Low 57. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind E 5-10 mph. TUESDAY: Another beautiful day!. High 77. Low 58. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 5-10 mph. WEDNESDAY: Dry start. Storms develop late. High 79. Low 60. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 10-15 mph. THURSDAY: Chance of T-showers. High 78. Low 55. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.
This Day in Weather History June 2nd
1945: Snow and sleet pile up to 4.5 inches at Tower.
1898: Heavy rain falls across Minnesota. Just over 7 inches is reported at Pine River Dam.
Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis June 2nd
Average High: 74F (Record: 93F set in 1940) Average Low: 54F (Record: 35F set in 1946) Average Precipitation: 0.12" (Record: 2.00" set in 1897)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis June 2nd
Sunrise: 5:29 AM Sunset: 8:52 PM
*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 24 minutes and 31 seconds *Daylight Added Since Yesterday: ~2 minutes and 19 seconds
*Earliest Twin Cities Sunrise During The Year: June 13th-17th (5:25 AM) *Next Sunset At/After 9 PM: June 12th(9:00 PM)
Minnesota Weather Outlook
warm front will be pushing north as we head through the last day of
your week, bringing warmer temperatures with it across the region. We'll
see highs on Friday ranging from the 90s across southern Minnesota to
the 70s and 80s across northern parts of the state. There is a chance of
some scattered showers and storms across the region as we head through
the afternoon and into Friday night.
across Minnesota - and many areas of the upper Midwest - will be a good
5-15 degrees above average for this time of year on Friday.
also notice a little bit more of a sticky feeling with the warmer
temperatures as well, as dewpoints start climbing across the region.
That air conditioner will likely need to be turned on by Friday
afternoon as dewpoints climb into the 60s as far north as Fargo and
Grand Forks. Some model data suggests dewpoints in the upper 60s across
southern Minnesota at times.
stay warm heading into the first weekend of meteorological summer in
the Twin Cities, with highs approaching 90 by Saturday. We do look to
cool back down a little heading into next week - so we are only getting a
quick blast of heat over the next several days. Of course, as we head
deeper into summer, that heat will likely stick around.
first 90 in the Twin Cities happens on average around June 10th
(looking at the entire Twin Cities climate record - it's June 2nd for
the 1981-2010 climatology), and it appears we could reach that Saturday
in the Twin Cities. That would actually be behind the date of the first
90 last year, which occurred on May 6th. The high Saturday could
approach records in the Twin Cities - the record for the day is 92 set
back in 1923. Temperatures across southern Minnesota are expected to be
into the 90s - a perfect day to find a local pool or beach! If you want
cool weather, head to the North Shore (of course)!
just see a few passing clouds Friday morning, but as you can see in the
forecast loop above some isolated showers and storms will pop up during
the late afternoon and evening across southern Minnesota. The best
chance of rain/storms will be across northern parts of the state.
Depending how fast a cold front moves through Saturday will make the
determination on where storms will pop for the first day of the weekend.
few of these storms Friday into Saturday may be on the strong side,
containing some hail and strong winds. Due to that threat, the Storm
Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Threat of severe weather across a
good portion of Minnesota Friday, as well as across the Arrowhead and
far eastern Minnesota Saturday.
best chance at seeing measurable precipitation across the state through
Sunday morning will be over northern Minnesota, where a quarter to a
half an inch of rain could fall. Across central and southern Minnesota,
rain amounts are expected to be light - mainly less than a quarter inch,
though they could be higher if one of those thunderstorms decides to
roll right over you.
the rain chances over the next couple days, we do look to get a break
according to the models for most of next week. The next rain chance
doesn't move in until late next week, which could be followed by a
heavier system as we head toward the middle of the month.
National Weather Outlook
storms are expected across the mid-section of the country, with highs
climbing into the 80s and 90s as far north as Minnesota and the Dakotas.
A few rain showers/thunderstorms will also be possible in the Pacific
Northwest and in parts of the Northeast.
warmest weather Friday across the nation will be in the upper Midwest,
where highs could be up to 15 degrees above average. The coolest weather
will be in parts of the south and New England, where highs could be
10-20 degrees below average in spots.
of the rain through early next week will be in the eastern two-thirds
of the U.S., with the heaviest falling across parts of the Great Lakes
and the Gulf Coast. Here rain totals could top 2-4" in locations,
including in/around New Orleans.
good news is some of that rain will help drought-stricken areas of
Florida. 15% of the state of Florida is in Extreme Drought, which is
slightly down from last week. Meanwhile, drought has expanded across
parts of the upper Midwest and Northern Plains over the past week. ________________________________________________
Up To Three Separate Derechos Last Saturday?
According to a facebook post
from the Storm Prediction Center, by using a recently proposed new
definition for what a derecho is, there could have been three separate
derechos that impacted the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley and
Southeast last Saturday. These storms left a swath of wind damage across
the region.Beginning Of The Atlantic Tropical Season
could be an active season for the Atlantic, as the tropical season
forecasts from various agencies show the potential of an above average
season. The NOAA forecast released last week shows a forecast of 11-17
named systems. Meanwhile, the Colorado State University forecast was
just updated Thursday and shows a forecast of 13 named systems, which is
up from the 11 systems they had in the forecast in April. Frost On The Moon?
up those plants... if you have any on the moon, that is. Scientists
have found evidence that there could be areas of frost near the south
pole of the moon. More from NASA: "Scientists
using data from NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, or LRO, have
identified bright areas in craters near the moon’s south pole that are
cold enough to have frost present on the surface. The new evidence
comes from an analysis that combined surface temperatures with
information about how much light is reflected off the moon’s surface." Image: NASA Earth's Rain Belts To Push North?
new study, just released this week in the journal Science Advances,
says that as the Earth warms, the rain belts of our planet will likely
be pushed northward as well. This could end up being an issue in areas
already stressed with drought. More on the study from Climate Central: "The
Earth’s rising temperature is expected to knock the global water cycle
out of whack, but exactly how it will change is uncertain. Scientists,
though, can look for clues as to what the future might bring in the
major climate swings that have happened in the past." Image: "Evidence
from the paleoclimate record teaches us that these rain belts shifted
toward the north during the Bølling warming, in which the Northern
Hemisphere warmed faster than the Southern Hemisphere, and to the south
during the LIA, when the Northern Hemisphere experienced a greater
magnitude of cooling than the Southern Hemisphere. Red, JJA rainfall;
blue, DJF rainfall. Sites discussed in the text are plotted as
blue-filled (wet) and tan-filled (dry) circles (Bølling) and triangles
(LIA). SPCZ, South Pacific convergence zone; T.E., thermal equator." via the "Human-induced changes in the distribution of rainfall" paper. 10.1% Of U.S. Electricity From Solar And Wind In March
by California and Iowa, solar and wind energy for the first time
supplied over 10% of the electricity used in the U.S. during the month
of March according to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Electricity
Information Administration. More from PV Magazine: "EIA’s
latest edition of Electric Power Monthly shows that during March wind
and solar together met 10.1% of U.S. electricity demand. This the first
time that these two sources combined have ever met more than 10% of
power, a fact which was first reported in the TerraJoule newsletter." What The U.S. Withdrawing From The Paris Climate Agreement May Do
Benjamin Sanderson, a climate scientist at NCAR, wrote an article for the Capital Weather Gang about what may happen with the U.S. withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement. Here is part of his assessment: "If
the U.S. decision causes the Paris agreement to fail, any chance of
keeping global temperatures below two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees
Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial temperature will effectively be
nullified. This is a good time to remember that even two degrees of
change will have significant global ramifications. Temperature records
of the past will be yearly events, most years will likely have an
ice-free Arctic, and extreme precipitation events are projected to