61 F. average high on October 10.
74 F. Twin Cities high on October 10, 2016.
October 11, 1909: A snowstorm hits the state, along with temperatures dropping to 7 degrees over northern MN.
Why Choose a Career in Weather? It's Complicated
If it weren't for weather merit badge and a tropical storm named Agnes, which flooded my home in 1972, I might have a real job.
If it weren't for weather merit badge and a tropical storm named Agnes, which flooded my home in 1972, I might have a real job.
Most
meteorologists were traumatized by a major storm at a tender age: a
hurricane, flood, tornado or blizzard, something traumatizing and
life-changing. A career in meteorology is lifelong therapy, as we tee up
questions with no good answers. How could this happen? Why wasn't the
forecast better?
Today
I'm involved with two weather companies attempting to make forecasts
more accurate for consumers and businesses. Because roughly a third of
America's GDP is now "weather-sensitive". This year variability in
weather will impacted US GDP to the tune of $879 billion. With better
forecasts companies can optimize operations, save money - and keep staff
safer.
No
complaints today with fading sun and a shot at 60F. The arrival of a
cooler front squeezes out weekend showers, with highs stuck in the 50s.
Now that most of the state has experienced the first frost we can
reference "Indian Summer". Models hint at a streak of 60s, even
70-degree highs, next week.
Photo credit above: NOAA and Pixabay.
Heaviest Rains Stay Southeast of Minnesota Into Friday Night.
The map above shows total rainfall between now and 1am Saturday
morning; a 2"+ bulls-eye over southern Wisconsin and southern Michigan,
but dry for much of western Minnesota and the Dakotas. NAM guidance:
NOAA and Tropicaltidbits.com.
Fairly Comfortable Into Next Week.
Considering we could be scraping snow off our driveways I won't
complain about a preponderance of 60s into next week; maybe even a day
or two above 70F late next week. If you avoided a frost Tuesday morning
chances are you're stay frost-free for the next 1-2 weeks. Twin Cities
ECMWF guidance above: WeatherBell.
California Increased Wildfire Risk. Some perspective from Climate Signals: "...Extreme
heat and years of ongoing drought are both linked to climate change
and are increasing wildfire risk throughout California by contributing
to the frequency and severity of wildfires in recent decades. Ten of
California's 20 largest wildfires on record have all burned in the last
10 years, while pine beetles, heat and California’s five-year drought
have caused 66 million trees to die in the state’s Sierra Nevada forests
since 2010. A formal modeling analysis has identified the fingerprint
of global warming in California's wildfires, reporting that "an
increase in fire risk in California is attributable to human-induced
climate change..."
Tuesday Morning Frost.
The downtowns and (very) close-in suburbs may have escaped a frost
Tuesday morning, but much of the expanded metro did experience the first
32F or colder morning of the season. Maps courtesy of Praedictix.
Median Date of First 32F Temperature? The
Minnesota State Climatology Office at the MN DNR has the answers: as
early as November 25 in Cambridge, as late as October 8 at MSP
International Airport.
The Meteorologist's Lament.
Weather forecasts are better than ever, but the public doesn't seem to
realize it, according to meteorologist Mike Smith reporting at Slate: "...For
meteorologists like me, this is frustrating. Our increasingly accurate
forecasts save untold numbers of lives. For instance, the death rate
from tornadoes has been cut by more than 95 percent since the 1930s, the
last decade when there was no tornado warning system of any kind. In
the 1970s and ’80s, thunderstorm-related downbursts—violent downrushing
air that spreads out when it reaches the ground, creating wind
shear—were the No. 1 cause of airliner crashes. Thanks to the work of
weather scientists, the last wind shear-related airline crash was in 1994.
It’s easy to overlook these major advances because when meteorology is
successful, nothing happens. Planes don’t crash. People don’t die, or at
least they die in far smaller numbers than before the storm warning
system existed. It’s a bit like national security—stopping a terrorist
attack before it happens doesn’t make for as good a news story..."
Map credit: NOAA NCDC.
"Darwin Award": These Hurricane Chasers Are Being Ridiculed for Decisions During Nate. Public service or dangerous stunt? Here's an excerpt from Capital Weather Gang: "...The work that I do here is a public service,” Timmer told The Washington Post via email, “and like first responders who place themselves in harm’s way, we do go into dangerous situations but as top professionals do so in intelligent and cautious ways so that people understand the dangers and when told to evacuate they will do so.” Theiss takes a similar approach to chasing storms. “This is no different than a war photographer going to war or an astronaut going to space in the name of science.” Theiss told The Post. The only difference, he says, is that he’s “going to war with nature...”
"One of the Worst I've Seen". Hurricane Chaser Documents Maria's Punishing Attack on Puerto Rico. Here's an excerpt of an interview at Capital Weather Gang: "...My
barometer bottomed out at 929 millibars a little before dawn as
destructive winds were raking Palmas Del Mar. The air pressure was
rising when morning light came — a sign the hurricane was moving away —
and I expected the winds would start to lessen. But instead they got
worse. The trees lining the street waved in this crazy, wild way. Then
this wall of wind and rain swallowed everything up. The view off the
balcony turned pure white — you couldn’t see anything. The buildings
across the street, the trees, everything just disappeared into this
roaring white energy. We were in the violent inner core of a high-end
Category 4 hurricane..."
U.S. Numerical Weather Is Still Behind and Not Catching Up: What is Wrong and How Can It Be Fixed? Cliff Mass has an interesting post; here's a clip: "...The
reason for U.S. lagging performance? A dysfunctional, disorganized, and
fragmented organizational structure for U.S. operational numerical
weather prediction and associated research that makes it impossible for
NOAA's weather prediction to be world class. Things won't get better
until that structure is replaced with an intelligently designed,
rational organizational structure, that effectively uses both
governmental and non-governmental resources to give Americans
state-of-science weather forecasts. Ever since Hurricane Sandy in
2012, where the European Center model did far better in predicting
landfall than the U.S. GFS model, there has been a national recognition
that U.S. numerical weather prediction, the foundation of all U.S.
weather forecasting, had fallen behind. Story after story have appeared
in the national media. Congressional committees held hearings. And
Congress, wishing to address resource issues, provided substantial
funding in what is known as the "Sandy Supplement." Six years before,
after the devastating landfall of Hurricane Katrina, Congress had
provide similarly large amounts to improve hurricane forecasting and
warnings, creating the HFIP program (Hurricane Forecasting Improvement
Project)..."
ECMWF (European) model ensemble for Hurricane Nate: Weathernerds.org.
How Clouds Got Their Names. Brain Pickings has a link to a fascinating explainer: "...Since our words give shape to our thoughts, it wasn’t until a young amateur meteorologist named and classified the clouds in 1803 that we began to read the skies and glean meaning from their feathery motions. In this animated primer from TED-Ed, Richard Hamblyn, author of The Invention of Clouds: How an Amateur Meteorologist Forged the Language of the Skies (public library) — the same scintillating book that traced how Goethe shaped the destiny of clouds
— tells the story of how the clouds got their names, forever changing
our understanding of that most inescapable earthly companion, the
weather..."
I've Looked at Clouds From Both Sides Now. Are you a member of the Cloud Appreciation Society? A story at The Washington Post explains how clouds shape our moods and cognition: "...Psychologically speaking, clouds also have both positive and negative impact. Overcast weather turns us inward and helps us focus, the experts say. Sunny weather, by contrast, slows cognition. Researchers in Australia tested their theory with an experiment several years ago. They showed — for the first time in a real-life setting — weather-induced moods can significantly affect memory. On rainy, cloudy days, which caused a gloomy mood, the ability to recall objects was three times greater than on sunny days, despite all the positive vibes they triggered...The group, of course, has nothing good to say about lovers of cloudlessness — including beachgoers, most prominently. They call the worship of monotonous cloudlessness “blue sky thinking.” Pretor-Pinney rejects such a limited view of the heavens. “Cloudspotting is a conscious invitation to daydream, a sensitivity to your surroundings,” he said. “It’s a kind of sky geekiness, which is beautiful.”
File photo: NOAA.
Photo credit: Space.com. "Photographer Dave Markel caught this view of a strange aurora-like feature that appears in the skies of northern Canada. Based on data from European Space Agency's Swarm satellites, it appears to be a 16-mile-wide (25 km) ribbon of flowing gas in an area whose temperature is 5,500 degrees Fahrenheit (3,000 degrees Celsius) higher than the surroundings; the gas flows at 3.5 miles per second (6 km/s) compared to a speed of 33 feet/second (10 m/s) on either side of the ribbon. They're calling the feature "Steve." Credit: Dave Markel Photography.
Map credit: "Imagery provided by services from the Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), operated by the NASA/GSFC/Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) with funding provided by NASA/HQ."
Don't Market EVs as "Green". Promote something a granola-munching hippy might drive? Not so much, according to the author of a story at Inside EVs: "...Faster, cooler, smarter, more fun to drive… and good for the environment. Electric vehicles (EVs) are all that and more. That’s why I’m calling for an immediate ban on “green” stereotypes from all EV marketing efforts. No more talking flowers, dancing animals or smiling trees—ever. Why? Because EVs don’t need to win the hearts of environmentalists. They had them at hello. The hearts they have to win are those who don’t believe EVs are the future. But alas, the writing is on the wall. More and more manufacturers are committed to producing all-electric vehicles, including big players like GM, Porsche, BMW and Jaguar. If great marketing helps build an emotional connection between your target consumer and your product/service, then these manufacturers must court self-proclaimed “car buffs”—like me. It’s actually quite simple. You go after what drives people to have a passion for cars and driving..."
Image credit: Madrona Venture Group.
Cars Are Safer Than Ever - But Traffic Deaths Are Climbing. WIRED.com has the surprising details: "...Researchers
have long known that driving deaths rise and dive with the economy and
income growth. People with jobs have more reason to be on the road than
the unemployed. But this increase can't be pinned on the fact of more
driving, the stats indicate. Even adjusted for miles traveled,
fatalities have ticked up by 2.6 percent over 2015. You can still blame
the economy, because people aren't just driving more. They're driving
differently. Better economic condition give them the flexibility to
drive for social reasons. There might be more bar visits (and drinking)
and trips along unfamiliar roads (with extra time spent looking at a map
on a phone). The DOT numbers seem to confirm that drivers involved in
traffic deaths were doing different things behind the wheel last year.
The feds say the number people who died while not wearing seat belts
climbed 4.6 percent, and that drunk driving fatalities rose 1.7 percent..."
China Charges Toward Electric-Car Supremacy. The Wall Street Journal explains: "Watch out Detroit: A Chinese electric car revolution is on the way. China is placing big bets on a plan
to reshape the global auto industry by replacing gas-guzzling cars on
its streets with new-energy vehicles. Ahead of Donald Trump’s trip to
China in November, the White House is focused on holding back Chinese
exports in traditional industries like steel and aluminum. But that’s a
sideshow. A titanic struggle is under way to control the industries of
the future from robotics to medical equipment and artificial
intelligence. In new-energy vehicles, China is firmly in the driving
seat..."
Image credit: WSJ. "China is the world's largest market for electric vehicles, thanks largely to a relentless program of subsidies and incentives." Photo/Video: Eva Tam/The Wall Street Journal
Photo credit: "An offshore wind farm stands in the water near the Danish island of Samso, May 19, 2008." REUTERS/Bob Strong.
Nobel Prizes Are Great, but College Football is Why American Universities Dominate the World. Quartz connects the dots: "...The
connection between brawny linemen and brainy physicists may seem
remote, but it’s really not. In order to support a large number of
high-powered professors, US universities need to attract a huge number
of tuition-paying students, and they need to turn those students into
loyal lifelong donors. In order to draw state appropriations, they also
need to extend their reach beyond their own alumni by attracting the
political support of citizens in the immediate community and in the
state at large. And they need to do so within an extremely competitive
higher education market consisting of nearly 5,000 degree-granting
institutions..."
Photo credit: Gophersports.com.
- Never try on a mask in a store without wearing a bathing cap over your hair..."
America's Ode to the Toilet Seat. After reading this blurb at Atlas Obscura I have a strange desire to check this out. I may even bring a newspaper along to pass the time: "...As
visitors look through the two-room garage, Smith is quick to point out
toilet seats that are the most special to him. His walking stick will
direct you to the seat with a piece of debris from the exploded
Challenger shuttle. He’ll point out the toilet seat that came from the
private plane of Aristotle Onassis, several seats that serve as a hub
for geocachers, and a toilet seat from Saddam Hussein’s palace sent to
him by a member of the armed forces. His mind is still sharp. He can
tell you the story behind every one of his seats, which he will do if
you get him going. With his advanced age and his body growing weary, he
wants to sell the collection. But he won’t just let it go to anybody..."
Photo credit: "Barney Smith with his toilet seat art in San Antonio." Dan Leeth/ Alamy.
“Keep your face to the sunshine and you cannot see the shadows.” – Helen Keller
TODAY: Partly sunny skies. Winds: SE 7-12. High: near 60
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: More clouds, risk of a shower or sprinkle. Low: 52
THURSDAY: Patchy clouds, breezy and milder. Winds: S 10-15. High: 65
FRIDAY: Clouds increase, slight PM shower risk. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 52. High: 62
SATURDAY: Another round of mostly PM showers - windy and cool. Winds: NE 7-12. Wake-up: 45. High: 57
SUNDAY: Showers taper, chilling breeze. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 44. High: 54
MONDAY: Sunny and milder again. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 40. High: 60
TUESDAY: Sunny and very pleasant. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 47. High: 66
Climate Stories...
Scientists Say Cost of Capturing CO2 Declining. The Associated Press reports: "Technology now in limited use removes about 90 percent of carbon dioxide from the smokestacks of coal-fired power plants, but energy experts say cost remains the chief obstacle to bringing the “clean coal” touted by President Donald Trump into the mainstream. They cite recent advances in applying the longstanding technology, despite some earlier setbacks, but say the U.S. power sector needs bigger tax credits or other incentives to close the cost gap for using them....The U.S. has successfully cut other smokestack pollutants, including sulfur, nitrogen and mercury. But carbon dioxide is a bigger challenge because there is so much of it. Coal- and gas-fired electrical generators produce about 30 percent of CO2 from human activity. Other industries like cement, steel and fertilizer manufacturing add another 20 to 25 percent. Farming and vehicles are also major contributors..."
Photo credit: REUTERS/Muhammad Hamed. "The Syrian conflict can be viewed, in part, as a product of climate change."
The Most Powerful Evidence Climate Scientists Have of Global Warming. InsideClimate News has the details: "...More
than 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions
has been absorbed into the oceans that cover two-thirds of the planet's
surface. Their temperature is rising, too, and it tells a story of how
humans are changing the planet. This accrued heat is "really the memory
of past climate change," said Kevin Trenberth, the head of climate
analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and co-author
of a new paper on ocean warming. It's not just the amount of warming that is significant—it's also the pace. The rate at which the oceans are heating up has nearly doubled since 1992, and that heat is reaching ever deeper waters, according to a recent study. At the same time, concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have been rising..."
Graphic: Paul Horn, InsideClimate News.
Climate Change and Harvey. Here's an excerpt from a story at The Battalion, from Texas A&M: "When Hurricane Harvey made landfall in August, the country watched as the storm dumped more than 60 inches of rain throughout South Texas. Now, experts like Andrew Dessler, atmospheric sciences professor at Texas A&M, are saying that climate change played a role in the size and intensity of Hurricane Harvey. According to Dessler, climate change doesn’t create storms, but it does strengthen preexisting storms. “The occurrence of a storm itself is largely [due to] chance and other environmental factors like El Niños and internal variability,” Dessler said. “The way humans have affected it is they have made the impacts of the storms a little bit worse.” Dessler said as humans continue to warm the ocean and climate, storm conditions intensify..."
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