Smoky Sunset Thursday
I recently just got back from an extended vacation and happened to get a picture of the smoky sunset on Thursday in Wisconsin. You can actually see the layer of smoke, which looked like thin veil of cirrus clouds in the distance. You can tell it is smoke by the way it turned the sun an orangish-red color.
Smoky Sunrise Friday
Friday mornings sunrise was also very orange as the layer of smoke hung overhead. You can actually see the smoke on the visible satellite from AM Friday, which is fairly faint compared to the cloud deck in western Minnesota.
Smoky Skies on Saturday
Here's a look at the vertical smoke integration midday Saturday, which suggests smoky skies across much of Minnesota and the Dakotas once again. A west to northwest flow aloft will continue to carry smoke from wildfires burning across the Western US and Canada.
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"Harvey is a 1,000-year flood event unprecedented in scale"
As Harvey’s rains unfolded, the intensity and scope of the disaster were so enormous that weather forecasters, first responders, the victims, everyone really, couldn’t believe their eyes. Now the data are bearing out what everyone suspected: This flood event is on an entirely different scale than what we’ve seen before in the United States. A new analysis from the University of Wisconsin’s Space Science and Engineering Center has determined that Harvey is a 1-in-1,000-year flood event that has overwhelmed an enormous section of Southeast Texas equivalent in size to New Jersey. There is nothing in the historical record that rivals this, according to Shane Hubbard, the Wisconsin researcher who made and mapped this calculation. “In looking at many of these events [in the United States], I’ve never seen anything of this magnitude or size,” he said. “This is something that hasn’t happened in our modern era of observations. ”Hubbard made additional calculations that accentuate the massive scale of the disaster:
**At least 20 inches of rain fell over an area (nearly 29,000 square miles) larger than 10 states, including **West Virginia and Maryland (by a factor of more than two).
At least 30 inches of rain fell over an area (more than 11,000 square miles) equivalent to Maryland’s size.
At least 30 inches of rain fell over an area (more than 11,000 square miles) equivalent to Maryland’s size.
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"Harvey’s two-step across Texas: The peculiar meteorology behind a U.S. rain record"
"Over the past few days, a staggering amount of water fell across Southeast Texas and Louisiana. All this water disgorged from one of the greatest meteorological events in U.S. history: an intense Category 4 hurricane named Harvey. This analysis attempts to explain how this extreme storm evolved — from landfall to eventual exit from Texas, with emphasis on the rain generation. The rain accumulation totals Our strategy here is to look at the behavior of this weather system day by day, from Aug. 25-30. But first, let’s examine a map of the preliminary rain amounts across the greater Texas region (above), over this multiday period from Aug. 23-30. These values are all subject to continued verification. The deepest water accumulations encompass Houston, Beaumont, Galveston, Pasadena and Port Arthur."
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"Harvey's unusual lightning: We've never seen a hurricane in this way"
"When Hurricane Harvey approached the Texas coast for its first of two landfalls on Aug. 25, a new and advanced weather satellite watched its every move. The spacecraft, known as GOES-16, is still in an experimental phase, but the data it provides is available to National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters already. As meteorologists test out the capabilities of this new platform, which launched last year, they are revealing new insights on storm systems. With Harvey, the satellite's lightning mapper — which tracks lightning over land and out to sea, where current observations fall short — revealed something fascinating. Here's a video posted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which operates the satellite, on Thursday. The yellow flashes represent lightning strikes, either cloud-to-ground discharges or cloud-to-cloud. As with most hurricanes, you'll notice that the most active area of lightning production is well away from the center of the storm. "
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"Future Hurricanes Will Be Worse Than Harvey"
"Research on Superstorm Sandy yields grim projections about global warming and extreme weather in the decades to come. How powerful would Hurricane Harvey have been in 1880? How much stronger might it be in 2100? A single Hurricane Harvey has been more than anyone can bear. But to better prepare cities for future storms, researchers are preparing to re-watch Harvey thousands of times. They’ve already been studying earlier storms, and their conclusions don’t bode well for the decades to come. In the months and years after Superstorm Sandy’s 2012 assault on New Jersey and New York, Gary Lackmann, an atmospheric science professor at North Carolina State University, was asked how the event might be understood in light of human-driven global warming. He knew that the question everyone wants answered—did climate change cause the storm—wasn’t the right one. Hurricanes were around long before the industrial revolution. Two questions did, however, resonate:
How does climate change affect the frequency or intensity of huge storms?
What would the weather pattern that sustained Sandy have spawned in a cooler past or a hotter future?
What would the weather pattern that sustained Sandy have spawned in a cooler past or a hotter future?
(A boy and girl hug their grandmothers' dogs after being rescued from rising floodwaters due to Hurricane Harvey in Spring, Texas, on Aug. 28, 2017. Photographer: Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg)
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"Dramatic before and after photos show the scale and scope of Harvey's devastating floods"
The terms"catastrophic" and "unprecedented" have taken on a new, grim meaning for residents of Texas and Louisiana. Tropical Storm Harvey, which came ashore between Port Aransas and Port O'Connor, Texas, on August 25 as a hurricane, dumped so much rain on the Houston area that it is now considered the most extreme rainstorm on record to strike any U.S. city, dropping 50-inch-plus rainfall totals in some parts of the state. The rain overwhelmed the Houston metro area as well as Beaumont and Port Arthur, sending most rivers to record heights and trapping people in their homes. These images show the scale and impact of the flooding throughout the state.
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Where and What Is Left of Harvey?
The left-overs of Harvey have thankfully started moving and are picking up speed. As of midday Friday, the center of circulation was moving from Tennessee into Kentucky with widespread rain and gusty winds. Here is the visible satellite image from early Friday which showed a fairly large storm system and cloud mass enveloping much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley.
Tracking the Remnants of Harvey
The remnants of Harvey will continue to lift northeast through the weekend with the last of rains ending in the Northeast late Sunday night/early Monday morning. As the remnants of the storm lift northeast, areas in the path of the storm should expect gusty winds and areas of heavy rainfall.
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How Much Rain?
Here's a look at the rainfall potential through 7am Monday as the remnants of Harvey lift northeast through the weekend. Note that some areas could see as much as 1" to 2", which is fairly heavy rainfall, but considering that Harvey dumped more than 50" of rain across parts of Texas, that is hardly anything.
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Next Up: IRMA in the Atlantic
No rest for the weary in the Atlantic Basin with another strong hurricane quickly developing on the heels of Harvey. Here's a look at IRMA in the central Atlantic, which as of Friday evening was a major category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph. The official track has this retaining major hurricane (category 3 or higher) status as we head through the weekend.
Model Intensity for IRMA
Here's the model intensity for IRMA, which shows the storm generally in the category 2 to category 4 range over the next several days. Note that a major hurricane is classified as a category 3 storm or higher. With that said, most of the models have this storm staying at major hurricane (category 3 or 4) status and staying there for a several day period. Stay tuned.
Tracking IRMA
Here's the latest from NOAA's National Hurricane Center, which shows IRMA quickly becoming a very strong hurricane as it drifts west toward the Windward Islands in the eastern Caribbean. A lot could change over the next several days, but folks in the path of this storm should pay attention to latest forecasts as this dangerous storm churns through the Atlantic.
Tracking IRMA
Here's the latest spaghetti models for IRMA over the next several days and you can see that most of the models take this storm just north of the Caribbean and north of the Bahamas. However, a few models take this storm toward the southern coast of Florida and perhaps even into the Gulf of Mexico; some even into the Northeast. Again, a lot could change over the next several days, so pay attention to the latest forecasts as this storms drifts west-northwest through the first half of September.
Here's the Atlantic overlook, which shows another wave of energy southeast of IRMA that has a MODERATE chance of tropical development over the next 5 days. Stay tuned...
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Tracking LIDIA in the Eastern Pacific
LIDIA has been causing problems in the Eastern Pacific and across parts of Mexico. In fact, LIDIA hit Los Cabos, Mexico and has been responsible for flash flooding and at least 4 deaths.
Tracking LIDIA
According to NOAA's NHC, LIDIA will likely remain a tropical storm through the first half of the weekend as it continues to run over Baja California. By late weekend, it is expected to be a tropical depression by the end of the weekend. However, not how close it will be to southern California, this should help to bring in high surf to those areas over the weekend and into early next week.
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PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Map
It certainly has been a fairly active first half of 2017 with 1310 preliminary tornado reports through August 31st. Note that this is the most tornadoes through August 31st since 2011, when there were 1,732 reports. The map below shows the distribution of the tornadoes so far this year.
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PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Count
According to NOAA's SPC, the PRELIMINARY 2017 tornado count is 1310 (through August 31st). Note that is the most active year for tornadoes since 2011, when there were 1,732 tornadoes. Keep in mind there was a major tornado outbreak in the Gulf Coast region from April 25-28, 2011 that spawned nearly 500 tornadoes, some of which were deadly. That outbreak is known as the Super Outbreak of 2011 and has gone down in history as one of the biggest, costliest and one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in history.
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According to NOAA's SPC, the PRELIMINARY 2017 tornado count is 1310 (through August 31st). Note that is the most active year for tornadoes since 2011, when there were 1,732 tornadoes. Keep in mind there was a major tornado outbreak in the Gulf Coast region from April 25-28, 2011 that spawned nearly 500 tornadoes, some of which were deadly. That outbreak is known as the Super Outbreak of 2011 and has gone down in history as one of the biggest, costliest and one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in history.
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2.) Flooding possible across portions of California and the Southwest.
3.) Flooding possible across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley.
4.) Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and Florida
5.) Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Central and Northern Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, California, and the Pacific Northwest, Mon-Fri, Sep 4-Sep 8.
6.) Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and southern mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Sep 4-Sep 5.
7.) High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, southern mainland Alaska, and the Aleutians, Mon, Sep 4.
8.) High significant wave heights for coastal portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Mon-Tue, Sep 4-Sep 5.
9.) Slight risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of the Central Plains, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Central Rockies, California, the Northern Great Basin, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest, Sat-Fri, Sep 9-Sep 15.
10.) Moderate risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, the Northern Great Basin, and the Northern Plains, Sat-Mon, Sep 9-Sep 11.
11.) High risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Great Basin, Sat, Sep 9.
12.) Severe Drought across the Middle Mississippi Valley, California, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, and Hawaii.
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"Crop Loss, Fishing Bans: Montana Becomes Epicenter of Drought in West"
"The state’s governor declared a drought disaster across 20 counties while a National Weather Service official acknowledged a long-range forecast missed the mark. A WET WINTER in 2017 pulled most of the West out of a long and serious drought. But one state was left behind: Montana. Andy Fjeseth, a spokesperson for the Montana Department of Agriculture, said some officials are calling the drought a “100-year event” in the state. It has hit the eastern part of the state Particularly hard. Wheat and hay farmers have lost crops, he said, because normal spring rains never came. Many cattle ranchers have been forced to sell off their animals early or move them long distances to find decent grazing conditions. In May, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock declared a drought emergency across 20 counties in the eastern half of the state."
See more from Newsdeeply HERE:
(Smoke rises from the Lolo Peak fire in Montana as seen from an airplane on August 18, 2017. The wildfire has expanded to 28 thousand acres, prompting evacuations. The state has been hit with both wildfires and drought this year.CITIZENSIDE/Jay Cline)
Exceptional and Extreme drought conditions are in place over parts of Montana and North and South Dakota due to several days/week of hot and dry weather. The image below suggests how much rain would be needed to end the drought, which suggests nearly 6" to 12" or more!
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National Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook through the middle of next week, which shows somewhat active weather conditions across parts of the central and eastern US. Scattered showers and storms will continue with the remnants of Harvey as it lifts northeast through the weekend. There will be a bit of a break before another front slides through the eastern half of the country during the first half of the week.
Severe Threats: Sunday & Monday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a MARGINAL risk of severe storms across parts of the Eastern US on Saturday, mainly from eastern North Carolina to southern New Jersey. Keep in mind that a marginal risk means that while a few storms could be strong to severe, the threat isn't expected to be very widespread. However, there could be areas of locally heavy rainfall where the thunderstorms develop.
Excessive Rainfall Potential Sunday & Monday
According to NOAA's WPC, there is a MARGINAL risk of excessive rain on Saturday & Sunday as the remnants of Harvey lift northeast through the northeastern part of the country. The good news is that the rainfall will be nothing like it was over the past couple of days as the storm system is starting to pick up speed. A more rapid pace to the storm system should help to limit rainfall tallies.
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Chetco Bar Fire - 5 Miles Northeast of Brookings, OR
The Chetco Bar Fire in near Brookings, Oregon is a very large wildfire in the Western US that started on Wednesday, July 12th and has grown to more than 131,000 acres! There are more than 1,600 people working on this fire, which is only 10% contained. The estimated containment date is set for Sunday, October 15th.
Ongoing Large Wildfires
Here's a look at the current wildfire map across the country. Continued hot and dry weather has helped to spark several wildfires across the Western US. There have even been fires popping up in the Eastern U.S., two of the larger fires are burning in Florida.
National Smoke Analysis
Here's the projected wildfire smoke concentration for midday Sunday, which suggests that smoke from wildfires burning across parts of Wesetern Canada and the Western US could continue to linger around the Northwest, Midwest and the Great Lakes Region. There also appears a very high concentration of smoke from fires burning across the Central Canada near the Hudson Bay. If you are in these areas, air quality could be a little poor, but these areas may also be enjoying very interesting looking sunrises/sunsets, which tend to look hazy or reddish-orange.
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11th Wettest August on Record for Minnesota
By Todd Nelson, filling in for DouglasAccording to Mark Seeley at the Minnesota State Climatology Office, Minnesota had a statewide average rainfall of 5 inches during the month of August, which ranks as the 11th wettest on record. The Twin Cities saw 6.75 inches of rain, which was nearly 2.5 inches above average. Redwood Falls was the wettest spot in the state tallying near 13 inches during the month.
Sure it was wet here, but it's hard to comprehend the amount of water that fell in Texas from Harvey. 51.88 inches fell in Cedar Bayou, which is a new continental U.S. record! Ryan Maue from WeatherBell calculated that Lake Superior would have risen almost 3 feet from all the water that fell in Texas! Approximately 19 trillion gallons of water would also equate to a nearly 1 foot rise in water levels across the entire Great Lakes. Unreal.
After a few showers scoot through the region early Saturday, the afternoon should be filled with sun. Sunday looks like the pick day of the weekend with highs in the 80s under sunny skies.
By Todd Nelson, filling in for DouglasAccording to Mark Seeley at the Minnesota State Climatology Office, Minnesota had a statewide average rainfall of 5 inches during the month of August, which ranks as the 11th wettest on record. The Twin Cities saw 6.75 inches of rain, which was nearly 2.5 inches above average. Redwood Falls was the wettest spot in the state tallying near 13 inches during the month.
Sure it was wet here, but it's hard to comprehend the amount of water that fell in Texas from Harvey. 51.88 inches fell in Cedar Bayou, which is a new continental U.S. record! Ryan Maue from WeatherBell calculated that Lake Superior would have risen almost 3 feet from all the water that fell in Texas! Approximately 19 trillion gallons of water would also equate to a nearly 1 foot rise in water levels across the entire Great Lakes. Unreal.
After a few showers scoot through the region early Saturday, the afternoon should be filled with sun. Sunday looks like the pick day of the weekend with highs in the 80s under sunny skies.
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Extended Forecast
SATURDAY: Showers early, then PM sun. Winds: WNW 5-10. High: 78
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: WSW 5-10. Low: 59.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny and mild. Lake-worthy. Winds: WSW 5-10. High: 84
MONDAY: Breezy and cooler. Isolated PM shower. Winds: NNW 10-15. Wake-up: 63. High: 74.
TUESDAY: Back to school. Feels like Fall. Winds: NW 5-15. Wake-up: 53. High: 66.
WEDNESDAY: Still chilly. Passing clouds. Winds: NW 5. Wake-up: 51. High: 68.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. A little warmer. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 52. High: 73.
FRIDAY: Getting better. Still dry. Winds: ENE 5. Wake-up: 56. High: 75.
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This Day in Weather History
August 20th
August 20th
1996: Approximately 8 inches of rain falls over a 2 1/2 hour period in the Mankato area resulting in flash flooding. Numerous roads are closed, basements flooded, and $100,000 of damage results from a lightning strike in Lehiller.
1992: Severe weather affects several counties in the western parts of the County Warning Area. Several tornadoes are reported, along with 3/4 inch hail and damaging winds, as the system passes through Pope, Swift, Stearns, Kandiyohi, Meeker, Brown and Renville Counties.
1975: Severe weather rolls through Stevens, Swift, Kandiyohi, and Meeker counties. 1.5 inch Hail is reported in Stevens and Swift. An F1 tornado also occurs in Swift. An hour later, another F1 Tornado was reported in Kandiyohi County while 69 knot winds occurred in Meeker County. Damages were estimated at $50,000 for the two tornadoes that touched down.
1937: Strong thunderstorms bring heavy rainfall to northern Minnesota, with 4.61 inches of rain dumped on Pokegama. Flooding was reported in Duluth.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 2nd
September 2nd
Average High: 77F (Record: 97F set in 1937)
Average Low: 58F (Record: 42F set in 1974)
Average Low: 58F (Record: 42F set in 1974)
Record Rainfall: 1.97" set in 2000
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 2nd
September 2nd
Sunrise: 6:37am
Sunset: 7:47pm
Sunset: 7:47pm
Hours of Daylight: 13hours & 11mins
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~3 minutes and 1 second
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 20th): ~2 hours & 26 minutes
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Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 20th): ~2 hours & 26 minutes
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Moon Phase for September 1st at Midnight
4.0 Days Before Full "Corn" Moon
4.0 Days Before Full "Corn" Moon
Sept. 6, 3:03 a.m. EDT – Full Corn Moon.This moon is also sometimes called the Barley Moon, in those years when the September full moon comes during the opening days of the month — an artifice that was used to keep the Harvest Moon from coming too early.
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Weather Outlook For Saturday
Saturday will be a fairly warm day across that state AFTER the clouds clear. Many spots will warm into upper 70s and low 80s. It might be a little muggy to start, but after the front pushes through, dewpoints will then fall dramatically back into the 40s and 50s, especially across western and northwestern Minnesota.
Weather Outlook For Saturday
A frontal boundary moving through the state will be responsible for a wind shift through the day. Winds ahead of the front will be from the SW, while winds behind the front will switch to the WNW. Behind the front, winds will gust to more than 20mph, so it could be a little breezy in the afternoon. This wind shift will help to bring in less humid air as we head into the early part of the week.
A few leftover rain showers will be with us early in the day, but it should improve considerably as we head into the afternoon hours. Note that by 1pm, most of the rain will have moved east of the MN/WI border with the clouds not far behind.
The UV Index for Saturday will be HIGH, which means that it will only 20 to 30 minutes or less to burn unprotected skin. With that said, if you are planning on spending any extended length of time outside, make sure you wear appropriate attire and lather on the sun block!
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Thunderstorm Threat Saturday and Sunday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a general thunderstorm risk across parts of the state on Saturday and Sunday. While the threat for widespread thunderstorm activity is not expected, a few locations could hear a few rumbles through the weekend.
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Simulated Radar Ahead...
Here's the simulated radar from AM Saturday to AM Monday, which shows a few showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder pushing through the state and region over the weekend. Note that the best chance appears to be overnight Friday into early Saturday, before we clear out Saturday. It appears that much of the day Sunday will be dry.
Rainfall Potential Ahead
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The rainfall forecast through PM Sunday shows a better chance of locally heavier rainfall amounts across extreme northeastern Minnesota, where some 0.50"+ amounts can't be ruled out.
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August 2017 - 11th Wettest in Minnesota State History
It was a pretty wet month of August with the Twin Cities seeing 6.75" of rain! That is 2.45" above average for the month! Note that some locations in western Minnesota saw nearly 10" to 12"+ with Redwood seeing the most at 12" of rain! Here's an excerpt from Mark Seeley's Weather Talk, which suggests that Minnesota had it's 11th wettest August in state history!
The most noteworthy climate attribute of August was the rainfall. Overall the statewide average rainfall was over 5 inches, ranking as the 11th wettest month of August in state history. Some western and southern communities reported their wettest August in history with total rainfall values over 10 inches. Redwood Falls topped the state network reports with over 13 inches. They reported the largest ever 1-day rainfall on August 17th in state history with a measurement of 8.12 inches. In addition over 40 climate stations in the state reported at least one new daily rainfall record during the month.
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Precipitation Year to Date
Here's a look at how much precipitation we've seen so far this year. Note that precipitation amounts are quite a bit higher as you go east into Wisconsin, while precipitation amounts fall considerably as you head west into the Dakotas. The Twin Cities has seen 25.65" of precipitation this year, which is 3.48" above average. La Crosse, WI has seen 31.76" of precipitation this year, which is 7.80" above average! However, Fargo, ND has seen only 10.50" of precipitation this year, which is -5.56" below average, while Minot, ND has seen only 5.33" of precipitation this year, which is 8.11" below average!
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While much of the state saw appreciative rainfall during the month of August and so far this year, parts of western and northwestern Minnesota are dealing with moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions. According to the US Drought Monitor, 17.5% of the state is considered to be in a moderate drought. Note 26.8% of the state is considered to be abnormally dry, while last week 27.2% was abnormally dry last week.
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Pollen Forecast
Itchy, sneezy? I tend to get a little more allergic to fall and I notice it more and more around State Fair time, which then finally starts to fade as the first frosts of the season start to arrive. With that said, according to pollen.com, the allergy forecast for Minneapolis suggests high to high to medium-high levels over the next few days. AHHH-CHOOO!!!
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Minneapolis Temperature Outlook
Here's the temperature outlook through September 16th, which shows temps warming into the low/mid 80s this weekend. However, another cool front will sweep through on Monday, which will bring temperatures down into the 60s midweek. With kids back to school on Tuesday, it will most definitely feel like fall! Late week temperatures will warm back into the 70s and could stay there through mid-month.
6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook from September 11th through the 15th suggests warmer than average temperatures settling back in across much of the Midwest and High Plains with the cooler air lingering across the Ohio Valley.
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Extended Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook through September 15th shows that a good chunk of the Eastern and Southern U.S. will be cooler than average, but the Western US will remain above average.
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the extended 850mb temperature anomaly loop into the middle part of September. This describes how warm or cold (from average) mid/low level temperatures will be over time. Note that the cooler blues moving back in across much of the Central US as we head into next week, while the warmer reds/oranges look to continue across the Western US.
Record Highs in the Western US
With temperatures running nearly 10F to 20F+ over the next several days, there could be a number of record highs that follow. Here's the forecast record highs for Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Note that a few records could be found from parts of California to as far north as Oregon!
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Weather Outlook Ahead
The weather outlook over the next couple of days shows somewhat unsettled continuing in the Eastern and Northeastern US as the remnants of Harvey lift northeast through the weekend. A bubble of high pressure will then take over across a good chunk of the Eastern half of the country before another cool front arrives early next week. Meanwhile, spotty showers and storms will be found in the Desert Southwest as a little moisture from LIDIA clips the region.
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5 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's WPC, the next several days could produce areas of locally heavy rainfall across parts of the Eastern and Northeastern US as the remnants of Harvey push through the area this weekend. There also appears to be lingering heavy rainfall potential across the Gulf Coast and Florida with some 1" to 2" possible. Also note the heavy rain south of California as LIDIA scrapes across the Baja California Peninsula. Meanwhile, much of the western and northwestern parts of the country will remain hot and dry!
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"Catastrophic storms, once rare, are almost routine. Is climate change to blame?"
"While climate change did not cause Hurricane Harvey, it could explain the intensity of this tropical cyclone as well as other catastrophic storms that have hit the United States in recent years, experts say. Harvey is the latest in little over a decade of “500-year” and “100-year” floods that once were considered rare. The storm, a Category 4 hurricane when it initially made landfall last week, has dumped trillions of gallons of water onto southeastern Texas, submerged houses and freeways, driven Houston-area residents from their homes and resulted in more than 20 deaths. Climate change won’t mean more storms overall — but it probably will mean that that biggest storms become even bigger, scientists say. For example, rising ocean temperatures could be making storms like Harvey bigger than they would be otherwise, said Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University. That’s because as the ocean’s surface temperature rises, the atmosphere’s ability to hold moisture goes up."
"Hurricane Harvey is seen Tuesday from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite. (Agence France-Presse / NOAA-NASA)"
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"Scientists Are Running Out of Space for Climate Data"
"Climate models produce incredible amounts of data. Soon, scientists may have to give some of it up. Climate science has gotten big. Debates about the research, its implications and the need for corrective action erupt everywhere from Middle American dinner tables to Capitol Hill and the bowels of social media. But climate science has gotten big in another sense, too -- one of sheer data volume. Mathematical models of Earth's climate are producing so much data that scientists may soon be forced to give some of it up. When it comes to understanding Earth's climate, the actual measurements of things like rainfall and temperature, even when built up over the course of decades, can only get you so far. To predict hypothetical scenarios and tease out what's causing what, scientists use computer programs that simulate the complex forces at work. By "seeding" these models with conditions on a given day and then watching how they play out over years or centuries, scientists can conduct virtual experiments that would be impossible in real life. "A climate model is really like a virtual laboratory," said Allison Baker, a computational scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. "You can ask 'what if' questions, like 'what if the Arctic ice all melts?'""
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"NASA Just Released This Absolutely Breathtaking Image of The Solar Eclipse in Infrared"
"While millions across the continental US turned their eclipse glasses to the sky to watch the Sun disappear behind the Moon last Monday, NASA scientists took to the skies to get a much broader view of the event. They've now released a few of their images taken from 15,240 metres (50,000 feet), including a spectacular infrared view of the eclipse in totality, and our limited human eyes aren't worthy of the view. Not only are these some of the most spectacular images you'll see of the eclipse, but they're also giving scientists a rare opportunity to study the surface temperature of Mercury, as well as probe the Sun's mysterious outer atmosphere. This is the eclipse at the moment of totality in infrared:"
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"We Finally Know Why The Caspian Sea Is Evaporating Off The Face of The Planet"
"Like a puddle under hot sunshine, the world's largest inland body of water is shrinking in the face of heat – in this case, a scorching climate the modern world has never before seen. The Caspian Sea, which lies between Europe and Asia, has been slowly evaporating over the past two decades due to rising temperatures associated with climate change, a new study shows. According to an analysis led by researchers from the University of Texas at Austin, the Caspian Sea is dropping almost 7 centimetres (2.8 inches) in its water level each year, and has been ever since 1996. If that descent continues, it won't take too long before this landlocked mega lake – bordered by Russia, Kazakhstan, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan – falls below its historic low set in the 1970s."
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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
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