
O.K. Are your drip-dries drooping yet? Good grief. Soaking rains last Saturday, another long, cool drink Tuesday (yes, it once again rained longer/harder than we thought it would). Remember all those unusually sunny, mild days in March, April and May - second warmest spring on record for MSP? Consider this payback. Then again June is the wettest month of the year, on average, with 4" of rain, give or take. It's also the peak month for severe storms: hail and tornadoes. In spite of a scare in Lonsdale last Tuesday (funnel cloud observed, a tornado that didn't touch down) Minnesota has yet to record its first official tornado. Last year our first twister was observed on June 17, unusually late in the season - looks like history may repeat itself again in 2010.
Savor today, a fine Wednesday as Wednesdays go - blue sky, a few decorative cumulus clouds, a stiff west/northwest wind gusting up to 25 mph. at times this afternoon (choppy on area lakes) and highs in the mid to upper 70s, a perfectly average June 9. In spite of a fleeting (instability) shower or two up north most of us will experience a dry Wednesday, possibly the only dry day of the entire week.


A surging warm front may ignite a few hefty thunderstorms Thursday night, a nagging frontal boundary close to home keeping the environment nearby ripe for scattered showers and T-storms Friday (a tiny percentage of which may turn severe). The wind profile will be potentially ripe for hail and damaging wind gusts, there could even be an MCS, a "meso-convective system" blossoming Thursday night, again Friday night, a swarm of heavy thunderstorms that can affect much of the state, producing minor flooding and lot's of lightning. These MCS systems are most apt to form in June or July, usually along warm frontal boundaries, usually at night, when the atmosphere "de-couples", allowing strong low-level winds from the Gulf of Mexico to focus upward motion on a warm frontal boundary, resulting in some 1-3" rainfall amounts. These storms tend to strengthen at night, then weaken during the daylight hours with hazy PM sun poking through - that could be the case Friday, again Saturday, although the latest models are hinting at more widespread/heavy showers and T-storms Saturday, which (right now) definitely appears to be the wetter day of the weekend.

I want to see a few more computer runs (we see 4 new runs of data/day) to confirm, but as of now it APPEARS that a cool frontal passage Saturday night may set the stage for a drier, sunnier, more tolerable day on Sunday with at least partly sunny skies, a stiff west/northwest wind (gusting to 20 mph at times) and a big drop in humidity. If you have a choice in the matter schedule your outdoor-fling for Sunday vs. Saturday. Not perfect, but potentially an order of magnitude better for outdoor activities.
We get another brief break Monday with lukewarm sun before yet another round of showers and T-storms arrives by Tuesday afternoon. Yes, we're making up for lost time in the rainfall department, the moderate/severe drought effecting eastern Minnesota (most pronounced over the MN Arrowhead) is easing rapidly - farmers are pretty happy about the state of affairs (soil moisture in VERY good shape over most of southern, central and western MN). We haven't had any widespread hailstorms either - really the best of all worlds for Minnesota's agricultural community - could mean a bumper harvest later this year.
Meanwhile we're hearing some troubling news out of NASA, after a few quiet years activity on the sun is heating up (sorry). More sunspots forming, more solar flares being observed. Insert yawn here. So what, you say? NASA is predicting that by May, 2013 the solar cycle may look similar to how it looked in 1859, when solar storms were so strong they knocked out telegraphs, starting house fires - back then the Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis) was so bright, vivid and spectacular that people could read their newspapers - at night! Great - one more thing to worry about, in addition to cataclysmic oil spills, dwindling arctic sea ice, new comets and belching volcanoes in Iceland. What's next? Chances are we'll get through this unscathed, but the latest "news" makes me want to retire to the basement and curl up into the fetal position. Then again, there may be radon in my basement. Ugh. Time to retire to the hammock.

"Via satellite, coverage from the Toledo tornado site.
We had 5 crews using two satellite trucks for last night's
newscast. I'm heading back out there again today to
cover for 5 and 6 PM. Describing the scene is impossible.
To see one house in perfect condition while the one twenty
feet away completely destroyed down to the foundation
is beyond comprehension... and heartbreaking to see
the owners of the destroyed houses picking through the
rubble for anything valuable with completely empty
stares as if they were robots. Sad....."
"NWS just officially upgraded this to EF4.
Yes... warnings were efficient and everyone
"got out of the way" as quickly as possible.
only 10 miles south of downtown Toledo.
occurred. That's five too many, but under the





* Solar Storms Could Be Earth's Next Katrina. The story is here.
* The Newest Threat To All Life on Earth: Solar Storms. If you're not already sufficiently depressed, click here.
A solar Katrina? (Star Tribune print column)
"Tonight's forecast? Dark. Continuing mostly dark tonight, with widely scattered light in the morning. The radar is picking up a line of thunder showers. However the radar is also picking up a squadron of Russian ICBMs - so I wouldn't sweat the thunder showers, you know, man," said the Hippie Dippie Weatherman, George Carlin. Perspective is important. While our focus is on volcanoes and oil spills, NASA warns of future solar storms capable of disrupting communications satellites and electrical power grids. "The sun is waking up from a deep slumber, and in the next few years we expect to see much higher levels of solar activity," said NASA scientist Richard Fisher. By May, 2013 the sun's solar cycle will peak at a level similar to 1859, when telegraph lines shorted out, catching homes on fire, and the aurora was so bright people could read newspapers (at night). Great. More details on my weather blog.
We get a break from the rain today, enough sun for upper 70s. A surge of warm, sticky
We get a break from the rain today, enough sun for upper 70s. A surge of warm, sticky air ignites scattered T-storms Thursday night into Saturday, a tiny percentage could be severe. Sunday should be the sunnier, drier day, a cool northwest breeze, highs in the 70s. No worries.


"In May, Arctic air temperatures remained above average, and sea ice extent declined at a rapid pace. At the end of the month, extent fell near the level recorded in 2006, the lowest in the satellite record for the end of May. Analysis from scientists at the University of Washington suggests that ice volume has continued to decline compared to recent years. However, it is too soon to say whether Arctic ice extent will reach another record low this summer—that will depend on the weather and wind conditions over the next few months." The web link is here.

Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota
Today: Plenty of sun, windy and mild. A PM pop-up shower possible up north. Winds: W/NW 15-25+ High: 78
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Low: 59
Thursday: Partly sunny, clouds increase during the day. Heavy T-storms possible Thursday night. High: 76
Friday: Sticky with intervals of hazy sun, a few strong (severe?) T-storms possible, best chance early morning, again Friday evening/night. High: 83
Saturday: Wetter day of the weekend. Showers and T-storms likely, some potentially heavy. High: 78 (Winds: S/SE 10-15, much higher gusts in strong T-storms. Hours of rain: 3-6)
Sunday: Cool frontal passage. Partly sunny, breezy and noticeably less humid. High: 75 (Winds: W/NW 10-20+. Hour of rain: 0).
Monday: Dry with generous sunshine. High: 78
Tuesday: Sunny start, skies sour, PM T-storms arrive. High: 77
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