Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
Today: Mostly cloudy, windy and cooler with a few windblown sprinkles (but drying out as the day goes on). A few peeks of sun are possible later. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 61 (holding the 50s over most of MN).
Friday night: Dry for evening football games (take a sweatshirt/blanket). Partly cloudy as winds ease. Low: 49
Saturday: Morning sun giving way to increasing clouds, a passing PM shower. Winds: SE 8-13. High: near 60
Sunday: The nicer day, more sun - probably dry. High: 69
Monday: Bright sun, lukewarm - a beautiful September day. High: 74
Tuesday: Blue sky - hard to focus on work or school. High: 75
Wednesday: Weather-winning-streak continues, plenty of sunshine. High: 77
Thursday: Lot's of sun, turning breezy and cooler. High: 68
Is it safe to take off the life preserver yet? Yesterday I almost drowned running out to my car - good thing I held my breath. What a day. You just don't expect a TORRENTIAL rain in late September, on the first full day of Autumn! Just when you think you've seen everything, along comes September 23, a day when over 10" of rain plastered a few towns in south central Minnesota.
What happened? Models were hinting at some 4"+ amounts (but those same models were suggesting that the heaviest bands would set up over central and northern Minnesota). Off by 200 miles, give or take - but the models had the right idea. Nobody in there right mind would predict 10 INCHES OF RAIN in late September, it's so far off the mark, 2 to 3 times more than what you might expect from the most extreme rain event in late September - we were all caught with our Dopplers down. We mentioned a flooding potential Tuesday and Wednesday, but 10" amounts? That's so far off the scale it's almost unimaginable. For June? Yes, within the realm of possibility. But late September? No.
A "train echo" event is responsible for the 6-10"+ amounts that swamped southern Minnesota. We've talked about this before - much like the cars in a train repeatedly pass over the same section of track, thunderstorms kept forming, dying and re-forming over southern Minnesota. The first round of storms tracked across far southern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon, dumping 1-3". Then another swarm of storms formed overnight, then another and another, resulting in some eye-popping amounts by Thursday afternoon. Again, VERY unusual for this time of year, but that's the kind of summer season we've had - exceptional. Iowa, southern Wisconsin and Illinois bore the brunt of this train echo phenomenon much of the summer, to have it shift northward and set up over southern Minnesota on the first full day of Autumn - well, it was a sobering and somewhat humbling thing to see on the weather maps.
The monsoon season is over (for now) - a drying northwest wind chases the heaviest rains into the Great Lakes today, the sun may peek through later, northwest winds gusting to 25 mph at times - temperatures holding in the 50s to near 60 over far southern Minnesota. Expect a dry sky for evening football games, but take a jacket or sweatshirt as temperatures fall through the low 50s into the upper 40s, the wind making it feel like 40-45 F at gametime.
Saturday should be another step in the right direction with some morning sun, a wrinkle of cold air aloft capable of sparking a few PM showers - but MOST of Saturday should be dry, still on the cool side though. Sunday still looks like the finer day of the weekend as temperatures aloft warm up, the sky floating over Minnesota more stable and agreeable, enough blue sky for highs well up into the 60s.
Farmers are concerned, and rightfully so - standing water in many fields south of the Minnesota River. The good news: long-range (GFS) models keep us basically dry from Sunday through October 9 - no significant rain in sight next week, or the week after that. It looks like we compensate for yesterday's epic flood with an extended dry spell as the atmosphere tries to "even things out", a little cosmic payoff for a miserably wet Thursday.
We're due for a fine spell of weather. It's been June in September - give it a few more days and September may just redeem itself. Don't write off fine, lukewarm (quiet) weather just yet...
* Does "Global Warming" Need A Makeover? Remember, it's "global climate disruption" now. Doesn't quite roll of the tongue huh? The story is here.