Chalk Up Another One. I haven't met one Minnesotan who has tired of our sunny streak. We haven't had any measurable rain for 20 days in a row now, and at the rate we're going we may go through next week without a drop of rain. Another good soaking would probably help to recharge soil moisture before the ground freezes up (by second or third week of November), insuring good spring planting conditions next year - but as of now I don't see any storms until late October (GFS model prints out nearly 2" of rain between Oct. 26-28). Thursday highs ranged from 62 at Hibbing to 67 in St. Cloud, 69 in the Twin Cities, and a balmy 70 at Rochester and Redwood Falls. I've run out of superlatives.
* Dry weather lingers into next week - models hinting at 1-2" of rain between October 26-28.
* A brief reality-slap is on the way: highs in the 50s early next week, but 60s return (again) the end of next week, a shot at 70 by next Friday, October 22.
* First frost for the Twin Cities metro? If skies clear and winds subside next Tuesday night (likely) conditions may be ripe for the first widespread frost of the season next Wednesday morning - the first 32 degree low. That could mean widespread frost, even for the close-in suburbs the middle of next week. That would be roughly 2 weeks later than average for MSP.
Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
Today: Plenty of sun, breezy and pleasant. Winds: SE 8-13. High: 64
Friday night: Clear and cool. Low: 45 (clear for evening football games, temperatures dropping through the 50s).
Saturday: Nicer, milder, sunnier day of the weekend. Amazing weather continues. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 66
Sunday: Cooler with sun fading behind increasing clouds. High: 58
Monday: A mix of clouds and sun. High: 57
Tuesday: Feels like October again - cool sunshine. High: 53
Wednesday: First frost for the immediate metro area? (coming 2 weeks later than usual). Bright sun. High: 55
Thursday: Blue sky, warming up again. High: near 60
* Low 60s possible next Friday, then slowly cooling down the weekend of October 23-24.
FEMA To Give Funds To 21 Flooded Minnesota Counties. The federal government has declared 21 counties in southern Minnesota to be disaster areas - initial damage estimates at $64 million. More from the Star Tribune here.
Hurricane Richard? Granted - it's 10 days out, but the GFS forecast valid Sunday, Oct. 24 shows a full-fledged hurricane just south/west of Key West, Florida. Next on the list: "Richard". We'll see. It's late in the season for hurricanes (ocean water temperatures peak in mid September and start to cool down in October). That said, hurricanes have been observed every month of the year, and a full-blown hurricane in late October, although rare, isn't unprecedented.