* Umbrella Alert. The heaviest rains arrive today, when over 1" of rain may fall. Expect standing water on area highways and slower commutes as a result. Come to think of it that umbrella may be all but useless today as winds gust to gale force, over 40-50 mph at times later today.
* High Wind Warning: in effect from this morning through Wednesday evening for sustained winds of 20-40 mph with gusts as high as 55-60 mph, capable of causing minor damage (downed trees and powerlines). Take time to secure any loose items (lawn furniture, trash cans, etc). in your yard as soon as possible.
* Record Low Pressure? Some of the computer models intensify the storm over northeastern Minnesota to 960 millibars by Wednesday morning, that's roughly 28.34 inches of mercury! The all-time record for low pressure is 28.42" set on November 10, 1998. We may come very, very close.
* First Snow? The latest NAM model is hinting at temperatures in the lowest mile of the atmosphere < 32 F by Wednesday afternoon/night. A few inches of snow will accumulate north of Brainerd and Grand Rapids, possibly enough to shovel and plow. A little slush is possible from St. Cloud into the Twin Cities Wednesday night. Stay tuned.
* First Frost. The predicted low for Thursday morning is 28 F in the Twin Cities. That should be the first sub-freezing temperature of the season, coming 3 weeks later than average. A Thursday morning frost/freeze would be the 10th latest 32 F. for MSP since 1871, according to NOAA and the MN State Climate Office.
* Don't Panic. In spite of this week's taste of November-like weather, no prolonged Arctic air is in sight - yet. In fact the GFS model keeps highs consistenly in the mid 40s to mid 50s through the second week of November.
Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
Today: High Wind Warning. High winds, periods of light rain - slow commutes. Minor wind damage can't be ruled out. Winds: SW 20-40, gusts past 50 mph at times. High: 50
Tuesday night: Rain tapers to showers, still very windy. Low: 35
Wednesday; High Wind Warning continues. Blustery and raw with very light snow and flurries. High: 42 (wind chills dipping into the 20s)
Thursday: First frost/freeze of the season (coming 3 weeks later than usual). A mix of clouds & sun, less wind. High: 43
Friday: Intervals of sun, dry and quiet, temperatures closer to average. High: 51
Saturday: Bright sun, light winds - nicer day of the weekend with a hint of Indian Summer. High: 58
Saturday night: Mostly clear and seasonably cool. Low: 42
Halloween: Sun dimmed by increasing clouds. Dry for Trick or Treating. High: 53 (Trick or Treat temperatures falling through the 40s).
Monday: Increasing and thickening clouds, a few PM sprinkles? High: 52