1). The farther north you travel, the better the chance of significant snow amounts later this week.
2). The worst conditions will probably come from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.
3). Wednesday precipitation may start as a mix of rain/ice before changing over to mostly snow Wednesday PM hours.
* Snow may come in 2 distinct phases - the first shot of snow Wednesday afternoon/evening, then a brief break Wednesday night into early Thursday. Wrap-around moisture (called "backlash") approaching from the north may drop a couple more inches Thanksgiving Day, especially north of MSP.
4). A "plowable" accumulation is most likely north of the Twin Cities, but (depending on the final storm track) that zone of 3-6"+ snow could easily dip into the MSP metro area. Here in the metro I don't see how we see anything less than 3 or 4". If the storm tracks farther south - we could easily wind up in the 6-8" band, maybe more north metro.
5). If you leave Tuesday, or even first thing Wednesday, you should be able to get out in front of the storm.
6). Winds ease and flakes (finally) stop flying Friday - good news for power-shoppers. It's just going to be COLD, highs in the mid teens, after waking up to readings close to zero in the suburbs. Typical weather for late January. At least the sun will be out (as is often the case during the coldest days of winter). Oh yeah - it's still "autumn." Great.
7). I still don't see any post-Thanksgiving storms, getting home next weekend should be easier than traveling Wednesday-Thursday. By Sunday highs should be close to 32 F (which I guarantee will FEEL pretty good, after muddling through a couple of Nanook days Thursday and Friday).
8). If we have more than 4" on the ground by 7 pm Thursday (quite possible) this will be the snowiest Thanksgiving since 1996 (when MSP had 9" on the ground). By the way, 2003 was the year we had 4" reported on the ground Thanksgiving Day.
"The seven presidential disaster declarations issued here — part of a record 78 nationwide so far this year — more than doubled the number in any previous year, naming all but 10 of the 66 counties as a disaster area; some many times over. And after losing roads and power lines, watching homeowners displaced and crops drowned, the residents now speak with an exhausted fatalism, though rarely with complaint."
Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
MONDAY NIGHT: Light snow tapers to flurries - little additional accumulation. Low: 19
The Perils of Ice
* Christian Earthkeeping - Social Justice Over Climate Change. There is a growing evangelical movement underway - people of all denominations realizing that climate change is not simply a scientific issue, but a moral one. A thoughtful article from christianpost.com is here.