Trace of snow fell Saturday.
1-2" possible by Monday AM rush hour.
3-6" possible by Tuesday morning.
10" on the ground in the Twin Cities.
52 number of years I've been on planet Earth.
26 number of winters I've spent in Minnesota.
1190 Paul's SAT score back in 1979 (no, I'm not especially proud of that one).
10 number of on-air meteorologists at WeatherNation.
54 number of minutes of daylight since December 21 (by the end of January).
55 number of days until the spring equinox.
34 number of days until "meteorological spring" (the real start of spring is March 1, as far as the atmosphere is concerned). Historically the 90 coldest days of the year run from roughly December 1 through February 28.
Latest NAM Model. The 00z Saturday night run prints out .41" by late Monday night/Tuesday morning - 3 runs/row around .4 to .5". Could we still see less? Absolutely. But I'm not sure how we see anything less than 1-2" Monday. Upper end: 5-6", most likely southern and southwestern suburbs by Tuesday morning.
Winter Storm Watch. The local NWS has issued a storm watch for much of southwestern Minnesota for a much as 6" of accumulation Monday and early Tuesday. The immediate metro area is not in the watch area - but I expect advisories to be issued, the watch possibly extended into MSP by Sunday PM. More details here.
"Tree limbs snap, the power goes out, the car needs digging out again. Along with the grumbling about winter snow there's also a common curiosity: So what does all this say about global warming? How can the average world temperature be inching up and 2010 be tied for the warmest year ever, when places from North Carolina to New England get buried by whopper winter storms? There are several scientific explanations that help sweep away the snow confusion. But like everything else related to climate science, it's all rather muffled these days, at least in the nation's capital. Those who don't accept climate science are vocal. Some of those who do accept it think it's better to talk about jobs or technology, rather than what's going on with warming oceans and atmosphere."
Saturday Statistics. Yesterday's high was 32 (around midnight) falling through the 20s during the day with a trace of snow. Highs ranged from 16 at Alexandria to 22 in St. Cloud.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
TODAY: Cloudy, flurries possible by late afternoon. Winds: N 7-12. High: near 20
Two Cold Winters Don't Make A Climate Trend. NPR's Ira Flatow had a recent interview with John Wallace, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington in Seattle. Here is an excerpt: "Are we talking about global warming here, or is it too nebulous to say that?
Dr. WALLACE: Yes, well, I would never associate an event in as short a period of time as a single winter, or even a single couple of years, with global warming, which is a very slow process that's really evolving on the timescale of decades and longer.
FLATOW: So why is it much warmer in the Arctic at this point?
Dr. WALLACE: Right, well, we've had a particular circulation pattern this winter that was really most evident from about mid-December to mid-January, where we had the jet stream that normally comes more or less straight across North America and goes out into the Atlantic, just about over New York, towards England.
And it's usually strong and forms a strong barrier that keeps the cold air to the north and the warm air to the south, but it got distorted in such a way that the cold air was coming down into the eastern United States. And then we had some of the warm air deflected up into Greenland and eastern Canada, and this set up the conditions that are favorable for that cold and snowstorms in the East Coast.
FLATOW: Now, didn't that sort of thing happen last year, also?
Dr. WALLACE: It did, yes, and we recognize it as a recurrent pattern that we can identify in past years, going back even a century. And we can keep track of how often it happens from one decade to another, as well."
There are no public decisions made that do not hurt somebody.
That is what the balancing of interests inside the Beltway or in the corridors of a statehouse are all about. The great Speaker of the House Sam Rayburn said it most colorfully: "It all depends on whose ox is getting gored."
"The Great Barrier Reef is one of the world's natural wonders, covering an area larger than Italy and drawing nearly 2 million tourists every year to boat, swim, snorkel and dive amid its elaborate flora and fauna. It generates some $6 billion in revenue for Australia annually and provides employment to more than 50,000 people. It's also one of the planet's most fragile ecosystems, home to more than 11,000 species that live, if not necessarily in harmony, in a carefully orchestrated symbiotic balance. At the foundation of this giant ecological and commercial enterprise is one tiny marine organism: the coral. That foundation is no longer solid. Corals build colonies that secrete calcium carbonate to form ocean reefs. When they're healthy, coral reefs provide shelter and food for animals all along the food chain, including the top: us. Across the planet, half a billion people rely, directly and indirectly, on corals for their living. That's why what happens to the 9,000-year-old Great Barrier Reef, as well as to other reefs worldwide, is critical."