All Blocked Up - Thanks Lee

Todd's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, less humid. Slight chance of a PM shower or rumble of thunder. Breezy winds NNW 10-15 gusts to 20mph. Dew point: 56. High: 77.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Any spotty showers will end, becoming partly cloudy with dew points falling even more. Low: 53

SUNDAY: Partly sunny, breezy and cool. DP: 48. Low: 55. High: 68

LABOR DAY: Best day of the weekend? Chilly start, bright sun and light winds. Winds: SE 5-10. Low: 49. High: 70.

TUESDAY: Lot's of sunshine, lukewarm. Low: 52. High: 72

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine continues. Comfy temps and low humidity Low: 53. High: 76

THURSDAY: More blue sky, very pleasant. Low: 54. High: 76

FRIDAY: Another beauty. Low: 56. High 77

Lee Blocks Things Up

I want to thank Chris Misun, a good friend of mine, from Moquah Wisconsin, who now lives Meridian Mississippi, for sending in this picture Friday evening before the rain set in. Tropical Storm Lee, a formidable Tropical Storm, developed in the Gulf of Mexico on Friday. It appears that this slow moving storm will bring very heavy rain to the Lower Mississippi Valley and part of the Tennessee and Mississippi River Valleys through the next several days. When Chris sent me this picture, he mentioned that is was just overcast, but they were waiting for the rain because he said they need it bad!

Infrared Satellite of Lee
The infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Lee shows a decent swirl in the cloud mass over the Gulf of Mexico. As you would expect, he certainly doesn't look like a hurricane, but because of his slightly more organized structure and his slow movement, Lee is going to pack a tremendous flooding punch for folks along the Gulf Coast States. 

Lee Tracks Slowly to the Northeast
The track on Lee is slowly to the northeast, which is going to dump a lot of tropical moisture over the Gulf Coast States. The good news is that Lee's winds aren't going to be all that strong because he'll stay at tropical storm strength throughout his life span over the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Major Flooding Due To Lee
I am very worried about the flooding potential as a ridiculous amount of rain looks to fall in spots that had river flooding earlier this year. This time, I don't think the flooding is going to be just confined to the river valley... I believe the flooding will be more widespread as nearly 2 feet of rain could fall in isolated spots. The image below shows the 5 day rainfall forecast, which will take us through the middle of next week.

Flooding Concerns Posted For New Orleans
Nearly 6 years after Hurricane Katrina, a much less developed tropical wave is plowing into Louisiana. Storm surge and strong winds definitely don't look like the threats here. Tropical Storms are notorious for their heavy rainfall potential and I don't think Lee will disappoint in that category. In fact, I think Tropical Storm Lee is going to be more than just a minor inconvenience. Flooding concerns have already been posted for counties and perishes along the Gulf Coast where rainfall amount could be quite astounding.

This was the Flash Flood Watch text from the NWS in New Orleans from Friday night:

* THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

* TORRENTIAL TROPICAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR MAY RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING AND GENERAL PONDING OF WATER IN STREETS.
MODEL ESTIMATES AND THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATE AN AVERAGE OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST... DEPENDING ON
FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE INTO EARLY NEXT

WEEK.

Hurricane Katia Continues Westward
I don't want to spend much time on Katia, but it's worth mentioning since some of the latest forecasts have Katia nearing the New England states by next weekend. Here's the latest on KATIA from the National Hurricane Center

What Does This Mean For Us?
After a slightly unsettled Saturday, we should be able to manage a very nice and comfortable Labor Day Weekend and first full week of September. I think that both of these tropical waves are going to play a role in our weather here locally by blocking any weather features from moving east in a normal timely manner. Closer to home... we'll have one more shot of some slightly wet weather as another disturbance slides through Saturday. The image below depicts Saturday's rainfall potential through the first part of the day. The afternoon hours should beckon a shift in the rainfall potential into Wisconsin as a second, reinforcing, shot of cooler air swings in from Canada.

 
All Blocked Up
After the little disturbance pushes through on Saturday, our weather locally will be quite enjoyable. It won't be all that warm, but it will be pleasant will lots of sunshine. It might be a little chilly Sunday and Monday as high temperatures struggle to get to 70F, if not stay into the 60s, but it appears that we should rebound into the 70s for daytime highs for our first full week of September with mostly sunny skies. Lee and Katia will really put a road block in the weather pattern locally. High pressure following our weak disturbance Saturday will sit on top of us for most of the week as Lee and Katia decide what they going to do to eastern half of the nation.

It really does appear to pleasant start to September after some Saturday showers move through.
Thanks for checking in, have a wonderful rest of your weekend.
Meteorologist Todd Nelson