+10.3 F. October temperatures are running more than 10 degrees above average, to date.
.30" rain predicted between today and Sunday night for the Twin Cities (NAM model). Expect showers, not steady rain.
Thunder risk: slight chance of a few T-storms later today, again Saturday. A small percentage of storms over western and central MN may be severe.
Wind Advisory in effect for gusts over 30-35 mph later today.
If the mercury hits 80 again today (likely) it will be 6 days above 80 so far in October. That's the most number of 80-degree days since 1953, when MSP experienced 8 days above 80, according to Pete Boulay at the State Climate Office.
October Severe Threat. Rare, yes. Not exactly unprecedented. An eastward push of cooler, Canadian air may spark a few strong to severe storms from Minnesota southward to Omaha, Wichita to Altus, Oklahoma, according to SPC.
Wind Advisory in effect today for gusts over 35 mph. at times. Details from the National Weather Service:
Showery Saturday. A cool front is forecast to slow down, possibly stall (temporarily) just west of MSP over the weekend. The metro area will probably be on the warm side of the front for much of Saturday, highs well up into the 70s - if the sun comes out for a couple hours 80 is not out of the question. The chance of showers/T-storms will increase the closer you get to St. Cloud, Willmar and Marshall - the heaviest rains staying over Nebraska and Kansas. NAM forecast map above valid 7 pm Saturday, showing accumulated rainfall for the previous 6 hours.
"...Studies in Europe and in Japan already indicate leaves are changing color and dropping later, so it stands to reason that it's happening here as well, said Richard Primack, professor of biology at Boston University." - from a Huffington Post article on climate change impacting fall color below.
"...The rapid climate change could be good news for the world's shipping companies, as sea ice decreased enough to open up both the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea route for brief periods in September. Several companies reported significant savings by completing voyages through the new routes this summer, with Danish shipping company Nordic Bulk Carriers claiming to have saved a third on its usual costs and nearly half the time shipping goods to China via the Arctic." - article below from the International Business Times.
Whew! Flood Insurance Still Available. MSN has the details: "It was yet another punt by Congress: Elected officials in Washington, D.C., failed to pass a bill reforming the National Flood Insurance Program this week. However, they extended the program until Nov. 18, giving them time to close a deal that reportedly has support from both parties. What it means: If you're buying a home -- or trying to insure one against flooding -- in one of 20,000 communities participating in the program, you'll be able to buy flood insurance, a requirement for some purchases. The continuing resolution authorizing the short-term extension now goes to President Obama, who's expected to sign it, says HousingWire. You can't usually get flood insurance as part of a homeowners insurance policy. Private companies say it's too expensive to provide. The government program, run by FEMA through partnerships with private insurers, subsidizes premiums, making them affordable. "The program was originally intended to pay for itself, but since Hurricane Katrina, it's been heavily in debt," writes Ezra Klein at The Washington Post. Payouts after the disastrous 2005 and 2008 hurricanes and floods left it $19 billion in the hole, says this article in Science magazine (.pdf file)."
• Steven Paul Jobs, 1955-2011 (WSJ)
• Steve Jobs, Apple’s Visionary, Dies at 56 (NYT)
• Apple Fans From Cupertino to Singapore Mourn Passing of Jobs (Bloomberg)
• Steve Jobs’ 2005 Stanford Commencement Address (Video)
• Steve Jobs’s Best Quotes (Digits)
• His Life, His Companies, His Products (NYT interactive)
• boingboing goes old school Mac Classic (bb)
• Mossberg: The Steve Jobs I Knew (WSJ)
• Tech honchos remember Steve Jobs (Digits)
• A Look Back at Steve Jobs of Apple (Dealbook)
• Jobs’s Death Draws Outpouring of Grief and Tributes (NYT)
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
Fall Foliage: Leaves Could Change Color And Drop Later, Scientists Say. Huffington Post has a story on how a slowly warming environment may affect fall foliage over North America: "PORTLAND, Maine -- Clocks may not be the only thing falling back: That signature autumn change in leaf colors may be drifting further down the calendar. Scientists don't quite know if global warming is changing the signs of fall like it already has with an earlier-arriving spring. They're turning their attention to fall foliage in hopes of determining whether climate change is leading to a later arrival of autumn's golden, orange and red hues. Studies in Europe and in Japan already indicate leaves are changing color and dropping later, so it stands to reason that it's happening here as well, said Richard Primack, professor of biology at Boston University. "The fall foliage is going to get pushed back," Primack warned. Down the road, scientists say there could be implications not just for ecology but for the economy if duller or delayed colors discourage leaf-peeping tourists."
Study: Climate Change To Impact Where Wine Grapes Can Grow. Uh oh. First coffee - now wine? Two of the most precious fluids on Earth, more critical to daily life than even....oil? Now it's serious. USA Today has the story: "To the litany of changes being wrought by global warming, we may be able to add one more: where wine grapes can and can't be grown. Within 30 years, the areas where California can grow fine wine grapes could shrink because of climate change, while little-known growing regions such as Seattle's Puget Sound and Oregon's Willamette Valley see growth, according to one controversial study. A federal agency report in 2009 found that average U.S. temperatures could increase 2 to 4 degrees by 2020 compared with the 1970s' average. That's not huge, but the best grapes "grow in a narrow geographic range that exhibits a narrow climate envelope," says Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford University."