0": no rain (or snow) predicted for the next 84 hours at MSP.
50-degree warmth forecast to linger (off and on) into the 3rd week of November. I still don't see any arctic air for Minnesota looking out 15 days.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
Deer Hunting Opener. Latest guidance suggests rain showers may hold off until Saturday night and early Sunday, possibly ending as a little wet snow over far northern Minnesota Sunday. Right now I don't see any significant snow accumulation in Minnesota through early next week. Saturday: peeks of sun, windy and mild. Highs: mid 50s (60 not out of the question over central/southern MN).
Back To Standard Time. We come off daylight saving time this weekend. Don't forget to "fall back" one hour before turning in Saturday night. An extra hour of sleep! Newstaar Media has more on why we even mess with daylight saving time and standard time here.
November is Denver's second snowiest month, on average, with 8.7" snow (1981-2010). The forecast for this storm is roughly 4 to 10 inches, which is the entire month’s average snowfall. In addition, just another tid bit of trivia…the biggest snowstorm in Denver was Nov. 2-4, 1946 (today marks the 65th anniversary) where 30.4 inches fell. More on November weather from the Denver NWS office here.
22" rain fell on Vero Beach, Florida in October, second greatest monthly amount on record (second only to 2004, when Hurricane Frances and Jeanne hit in the month of October).
"Weather Underground meteorology director Jeff Masters....said in the United States from June to August this year, blistering heat set 2,703 daily high temperature records, compared with only 300 cold records during that period, making it the hottest summer in the U.S. since the Dust Bowl of 1936." - AP article below on apparent global increase in extreme weather events.
La Nina Is Back. We've been talking about this for a couple months now. A cooling trend in the equatorial Pacific (although not as strong as last winter) may still favor colder, drier weather for the Upper Midwest, dry weather for the southern USA and a bias toward big storms tracking up the east coast of the USA. The story from NOAA: “A sea surface anomaly, or departure from the average temperature, is calculated by subtracting the temperatures from a time period of interest from the 30-year average (1981-2010) for the same time period. The resulting data shows areas that are hotter or colder than normal. Sea surface temperature anomaly data allow scientists to quickly identify features of interest, especially for El Niño/La Niña, coastal upwelling, and hurricane intensification. The strengthening La Niña in the Pacific Ocean brings with it a host of possible trends as outlined by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s Seasonal Outlook released October 20, 2011. These trends include lower than normal precipitation for the southwest and southern Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Below normal temperatures are favored for southern sections of the Florida peninsula, northern Great Plains and northern Rockies. Trends favor modest warmer than normal conditions for much of the east."
Wednesday White-Out? Winter Storm Warnings are posted for Denver, with Blizzard Warnings in effect just south/east of the Mile High City for near-zero visibility. Hundreds of flights into KDIA may be delayed or cancelled today, with 5-10" snow for downtown Denver, more east of the I-25 corridor. Click here for storm updates from the Denver NWS.
Blizzard Warnings. NOAA has issued blizzard warnings from the southern/eastern suburbs of Denver into northwest Kansas for white-out conditions - winter storm watches as close as central Nebraska. Click here for the latest watches and warnings.
Predicted Snowfall. The NAM model is hinting at over a foot near Denver, with some 3-6"+ amounts into Nebraska and southwestern Iowa.
Weekend: Western Storm Track. The weather map late Saturday shows an intense storm over Nebraska, tracking almost due north - keeping us on the warm, eastern side of the storm track. That should mean 50s Saturday, even an outside shot at 60 degrees, followed by a cooler wind on Sunday - rain ending as snow showers/flurries over far northern Minnesota. This may be one of the warmer Deer Hunting Firearm Openers in recent memory.
Sunrise. “Picturesque sunrise this morning thanks to some altocumulus clouds about 15,000 ft above the desert. Photo taken from NWS San Diego in Rancho Bernardo.”
Not Bad For November 1. Sunshine gave way to increasing clouds ahead of a cool front. Tuesday highs ranged from 49 at Hibbing to 64 at Rochester, 57 at St. Cloud and 55 in the Twin Cities.
Muller: Why You Should Not Be A Global Warming Skeptic. By now you're heard the story, a climate change skeptic who employed a team to try and do a better job analyzing global data (filtering out warming from cities). The result: he confirmed what IPCC, NOAA and NASA scientists (and every other major scientific association on Earth) has been saying for 20 years: the atmosphere is warming, and we are probably largely responsible for this spike. More from Technorati: "On October 21, Dr. Richard Muller published an article in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) presenting the results of a two-year exhaustive study of the world temperature records using multiple methods to verify the data. The verdict, global warming is real and the skeptics are wrong. This was news because Dr. Muller, a physics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, has been one of the 'legitimate scientists' that skeptics have relied on to support their position that global warming is a myth. This startling announcement was largely ignored by the news media until Jon Stewart had a field day with the announcement on his October 26 episode of The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. Since airing, several other news media outlets have picked up the story, including MSNBC and The Huffington Post."
Wild Weather Will Get Wilder, Says Global Warming Panel. Here's a good recap from the New York Daily News. New York saw the snowiest January on record (3 huge storms) and the wettest August ever recorded. Here's an excerpt from the article: "The report, obtained by the Associated Press and AFP, says weather costs will rise and some locations may become “increasingly marginal as places to live.” The scientists said they were a 99% certain that temperature extremes will keep increasing and called it “likely” that peak temperatures will rise 5.4 degrees F by 2050, and 9 degrees F by 2100. Three years in the making, the report comes in a year of unprecedented weather extremes and a record-breaking 10 multi-billion-dollar weather disasters, from February’s mega-blizzard to Hurricane Irene to the record-smashing tornado swarms in Midwest and Southeast. “It think that this year's weather extremes are a sign that climate change is starting to effect our weather,” said Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters. “When you get a naturally extreme year combined with climate change putting more energy into the atmosphere, you're going to get an incredible year like this one.”
The AP reports:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that extreme weather disasters like the recent record floods in Thailand are striking more often, according to a draft summary of a report obtained by The Associated Press. It says there is at least a 2-in-3 probability that climate extremes have already worsened because of man-made greenhouse gases. Read the full story."Photo credit above: Paula Bronstein / Getty Images
Ignorant And Proud. A story from Media Matters: "By any reasonable measure, last week was not a good one for conservative media figures that believe climate scientists are somehow fabricating the theory of climate change. Richard Muller, a physicist at University of California, Berkeley, announced the results of new research from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project affirming that the planet is getting warmer and confirming the accuracy of several other existing global temperature records. As the Associated Press explains, while the findings are "no different from what mainstream climate scientists have been saying for decades," what's especially notable about Muller's findings is "who is behind the study": One-quarter of the $600,000 to do the research came from the Charles Koch Foundation, whose founder is a major funder of skeptic groups and the tea party. The Koch brothers, Charles and David, run a large privately held company involved in oil and other industries, producing sizable greenhouse gas emissions. A study funded in part by oil industry interests finds that the planet is getting warmer and that climate scientists have "truly been very careful in their work, despite their inability to convince some skeptics of that" -- this seems like the kind of thing that should give pause to people that refuse to accept data from supposedly biased sources like NASA."