2" snow on the ground at KMSP.
.18" predicted precipitation for MSP through December 24 (GFS model). An inch or two of slushy snow is possible around December 21 - conditions still not ripe for major snowstorms through Christmas.
30s much of next week (considerably milder than this week has been).
December 16-18: next cold snap, although probably not as cold as the last 48 hours.
December 12, 2010: first subzero low temperature in the Twin Cities last winter (-1 F).
No subzero temperatures expected in the Twin Cities metro through Christmas.
A Brief Arctic Fling. No prolonged fun with negative numbers here, in fact there's a good chance the Twin Cities will be spared subzero weather, looking out the next 1-2 weeks. A quick rebound is likely over the weekend, temperatures topping freezing Sunday and Monday.
Pipe-rupturing cold? At last report the Twin Cities and Rochester reported 2" snow on the ground, with only a trace at St. Cloud. Snow is a good insulator, and a lack of snow on the ground over much of western and central Minnesota may increase the risk of pipe-breaks through Friday morning as highs hold in the teens, with nighttime lows dipping below zero. If you live in an area prone to rupturing pipes you may have some issues over the next 36 hours. Image courtesy of NASA's Modis "Terra" satellite.
Snow Potential. The NAM model through Saturday night at midnight shows significant accumulation from the Poconos of Pennsylvania into the Green and White Mountains of New England, some 8-16" amounts. The major urban centers will see just rain today, the heaviest snowfall amounts reserved for the Appalachians, Catskills and Adirondacks. As much as 6-10" of lake effect snow is possible downwind of Lake Superior, over the U.P. of Michigan.
And then the other shoe (boot) may drop in late December/January:
• A 30 percent chance of an above-average THC and a “significant” El Niño, reducing hurricane activity to about 75 percent of the average hurricane season — eight to 11, three to five, and one to two."
Bookmark-Worthy Doppler? Here's a good, new national radar composite - you can zoom into specific radar sites and overlay other NOAA products, watches, warnings and advisories. Click here to see the link.
Coldest Temperatures, State By State. Yes, it's cold out there, but we're not even close to record territory. The all-time record low for Minnesota is -60 F, on Groundhog Day, Feb. 2, 1996. I remember that outbreak - taking a deep breath actually hurt - felt like breathing in acid, an amazing sensation. See all the state records, courtesy of infoplease.com.
- "Be generous with praise. Everyone wants it and it’s one of the easiest things to give. Plus, praise from the CEO goes a lot farther than you might think. Praise every improvement that you see your team members make. Once you’re comfortable delivering praise one-on-one to an employee, try praising them in front of others.
- Get rid of the managers. Projects without project managers? That doesn’t seem right! Try it. Removing the project lead or supervisor and empowering your staff to work together as a team rather then everyone reporting to one individual can do wonders. Think about it. What’s worse than letting your supervisor down? Letting your team down! Allowing people to work together as a team, on an equal level with their co-workers, will often produce better projects faster. People will come in early, stay late, and devote more of their energy to solving problems.
- Make your ideas theirs. People hate being told what to do. Instead of telling people what you want done; ask them in a way that will make them feel like they came up with the idea. “I’d like you to do it this way” turns into “Do you think it’s a good idea if we do it this way?”
Mammoth Cloning "Within 5 Years." I did a double-take too. Neatorama.com has the story; here's an excerpt: "What’s been missing is woolly mammoth nuclei with undamaged genes. Scientists have been on a Holy Grail-type search for such pristine nuclei since the late 1990s. Now it sounds like the missing genes may have been found. In an odd twist, global warming may be responsible for the breakthrough. Warmer temperatures tied to global warming have thawed ground in eastern Russia that is almost always permanently frozen. As a result, researchers have found a fair number of well-preserved frozen mammoths there, including the one that yielded the bone marrow." (image above courtesy of Wikipedia).
Clipped Again. A weak Alberta Clipper raced across the state yesterday, pulling just enough mild air north for highs in the low to mid 30s over parts of the state. Afternoon highs ranged from 35 at St. Cloud and Grand Marais to 29 in the Twin Cities, a chilling 23 at Rochester.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
Flip-Flop: Jon Huntsman and Newt Gingrich Go Skeptical On Climate Change. From a Time Magazine blog: "There was a time—not that long ago—when climate change was almost a bipartisan issue. Both Barack Obama and John McCain said on the 2008 campaign trail that they were worried about the threat of climate change, and they both had relatively similar carbon cap-and-trade proposals. Seriously, this happened—I’m almost positive that I didn’t hallucinate the whole thing. But 2012 will obviously be a very different campaign, and today to be considered a Republican Presidential candidate in good standing, you need to repudiate the informed opinion of nearly all climate scientists and pronounce yourself a skeptic."
12 Different Billion Dollar Disasters In 2011. We set a new record this year: 12 separate billion-dollar disasters this year. The previous record was 9 billion dollar disasters in 2008. Is there a trend here or is it my imagination? True, more people than ever are living in vulnerable areas, close to rivers and the Atlantic/Gulf coast, more vulnerable to hurricanes and coastal flooding. But beyond that something else is going on - a 4 to 5% increase in water vapor (result of a warmer atmosphere evaporating more water vapor from the oceans) is sparking more extreme weather events. Graphic courtesy of NOAA.
Climate Changes Faster Than Species Can Adapt. Here's a story from Newswise and The Jerusalem Post: "The ranges of species will have to change dramatically as a result of climate change between now and 2100 because the climate will change more than 100 times faster than the rate at which species can adapt, according to a newly published study by Indiana University researchers. The study, which focuses on North American rattlesnakes, finds that the rate of future change in suitable habitat will be two to three orders of magnitude greater than the average change over the past 300 millennia, a time that included three major glacial cycles and significant variation in climate and temperature. “We find that, over the next 90 years, at best these species’ ranges will change more than 100 times faster than they have during the past 320,000 years,” said Michelle Lawing, lead author of the paper and a doctoral candidate in geological sciences and biology at IU Bloomington. “This rate of change is unlike anything these species have experienced, probably since their formation.”
Photo credit above: "Katharine Hayhoe speaks about climate change to students and faculty at Wayland Baptist University in West Texas. She's a climatologist and an evangelical Christian. (Geoffrey McAllister, Chicago Tribune / November 9, 2011)."