Saturday, December 31, 2011

Midday Update - A White and Wintry New Years

Forecast is still on track for a white-knuckle drive tonight as you bounce around town looking for the best way to ring in the New Year. The National Weather Service continues the WINTER STORM WARNING for the Twin Cities from 6pm Saturday to 6am Sunday. A total of 1" to 3" with isolated higher amounts can be expected through that time frame. Below you'll find a few graphics on timing of precipitation and how much to expect in certain areas. Happy New Year!! Looks like Winter wanted to join in the party too!
New Years Storm 2011-2012
Wind whipped snowflakes will track across the Upper Midwest Saturday night into Sunday. A blanket of 1" to 3" (isolated higher amounts) is likely across the areas shaded in pink below. Be mindful of blowing and drifting snow if you have travel plans tonight! Travel could be pretty sketchy when the clock strikes midnight!

Precipitation Timing
Keep in mind that precipitation might start off as a little rain or wintry mix. This could enhance the slickness on area roadways before the snow starts. The image below shows the precipitation starting up around the Metro around 6pm
6pm Saturday

10pm Saturday
At this point, we may be looking at the heaviest precipitation moving through the Metro. Should see that wintry mix change over quickly to snow through the evening, so accumulations are looking likely.

Snowfall Accumulation Thru 11pm
If this forecast holds, folks might be wandering out in the streets to see the New Years snow! The image below suggests there could be 1" to 2" of snow on the ground by Midnight with isolated higher amounts just to the south. Again, be sure to take it easy on the roadways this evening. A combination of a wintry mix during the onset of the precipitation with accumulating snow to top it off could have many area roads very slick. Winds will also be a major concern with blowing and drifting across those roads.

Enough to Shovel!
This is a little higher resolution of the snowfall potential closer to home. A good 1" to 3" here with isolated higher amounts possible. I think it'll be enought to some light shoveling by the time you wake up on the 1st day of 2012. Winds will still be a problem through early Sunday with gusts up to 45mph or 50mph early in the day.

MN Road Conditions Worsening By The Evening
Don't forget to check MNDOT's site for updated road contiions... it's interactive. Check it out HERE: The image below showed the MN road conditions around midday Saturday

Don't forget to send me weather reports and or pictures from your neck of the woods, I'll include them in my 6pm update later today, ok?!
you can email me HERE:
Have a safe New Years Eve
Meteorologist Todd Nelson

Storm track has shifted, looks like more snow will develop on the storms colder side... It could be a wintry New Years - stay tuned for more updates! A WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued for the Metro  from 6pm Saturday thru 6am Sunday. Rain quickly changing over to snow will have some accumulations across parts of the state. It's not a major snow event, but wind whipped snow may reduce visibilities quite a bit overnight and cause slippery spots. KEEP THIS IN MIND IF YOU'LL BE TRAVELING/PARTYING TONIGHT!!

A Quick Look At Snow Totals
This is an early look and would like to see the updated runs this morning to see how things change (which they likely will) - however, 1" to 3" of snow may be possible across the area with isolated higher amounts as you get closer to Duluth on I-35. The most important thing about the snow is that it'll be blowing around quite a bit with the heavy winds expected through the night.

Stay tuned for further updates today... I'll have more by mid to late morning after the new model runs come out. Do expect this forecast to change as any 50 mile track north, south, east or west could take the accumulating snow that way. For now, it appears we'll have a somewhat wintry New Years!
Meteorologist Todd Nelson

Todd's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

NEW YEAR'S EVE: WINTER STORM WARNING Starting @ 6pm. Unseasonably mild. Mostly cloudy with a little light PM Rain. Rain/snow mix develops later.  High: 39. Winds: SSE 10-15mph turning SSW 20-30mph late.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINTER STORM WARNING & WIND ADVISORY. Light rain/snow mix turns to snow and blowing snow. Total accumulations overnight 1" to 3" with isolated higher amounts possible. Windy and colder. Low: 19 Winds: WNW 20-30mph gusts to 45mph

NEW YEAR'S DAY: WIND ADVISORY. Still windy and much colder with more clouds than sun. Passing flakes in the afternoon. High: 24 (wind chill in the teens and single digits). Winds: NW 15-30mph gusts to 45mph.

MONDAY: Coldest day in sight. Bright sun, less wind - a rare colder-than-average day. Low: 8. High: 18. Winds: N 5-10mph turning S 5-10mph late.

TUESDAY: Cold start. Fading sun, light snow up north. Low: 4. High: 25

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, a bit milder. Low: 15. High: near 31

THURSDAY: Mild sun. Feels like March again. Low: 18. High:37
FRIDAY: More sun and still very mild. Low: 20. High: 39
     The old adage that statest, time goes faster the older you get, sure does seem to hold some truth. I am a father of two amazing boys, my oldest is 2 and a half years and my youngest is 4 months. To say that my wife and I are busy, is an understatement. I give credit to all the single parents out there, not sure how you do it. Although sometimes I'd like to fast forward through the harder baby moments of getting little sleep, I have to remind myself that in a few years, I might be wishing for these days back.
     It's all in perspective, another year comes to a close and many of us are scrambling for a New Year's Resolution. As my late father used to always tell me, "Yesterday's history, tomorrow's a mystery, but today is a gift!" I guess those are good words to live by, maybe my 2012 resolution is easier than I thought.
     Happy New Year's Eve! Can you believe that we're talking a little light rain for the end of December? Whatever falls will quickly change to light snow as a clipper blasts through. A windy and colder new year will make way for a cold Monday, one of the coldest days in sight. However, the 40s may return next week... Geesh, what month is it?
Snow Reports From Friday
A little light nuisance snow on Friday only added up to a couple/few inches (at most) in spots along the Red River Valley down to the Minnesota River Valley. There were a few light snow reports south of the Metro, but nothing to write home about.
Here are the top 20 snowfall reports from the Minneapolis and La Crosse, WI National Weather Service Offices.
Lighter Amounts in the Twin Cities
Why did the Twin Cities miss out on the snow? 2 reasons, a slight shift in the track of the finicky clipper system kept the accumulating snow just south and west of the Metro. Also dry air near east central Minnesota kept the snow from falling for several hours while the clipper moved southeast. You can see the dry in air by looking at the image below... there literally is a 'hole' over the Metro where snow was not falling.
What's Next?
Our New Year's Eve will consist of another clipper system scooting through the area. This time, temperatures will be warm enough (low 40's) for a little rain during the onset of the precipitation. If the moisture hangs around long enough, we could see it switch over to a little snow, which now looks to bring more snow to the Twin Cities.  Northeastern Minnesota looks to get some accumulations too. Another note, with temperatures falling through evening, I'm a little concerned with some slippery or icy spots that may develop. Be advised that roadways could become slippery with any rain/snow mix that continues through the evening.
Snow Accumulations Up North
This is a glance at how much snow could be pumped out across far northern Minnesota
Ringing In the New Year With Big Winds!
The one thing you will notice with this system is the ridiculous winds developing through the afternoon, lasting right through New Years Day. As the intensifying low pressure system slides east, we'll get blasted on its backside with 30 to 40mph wind gusts, perhaps even up to 50mph!
Unsecured lawn ornaments and light weight objects left outdoors will be blown around. Small branches may break off trees causing power outages and high profile vehicles may have trouble on area roads and highways.
Much Colder Into 2012
The big story to start off the new year, weatherwise, will be the much colder air settling into place. In fact, temperatures on Monday will be below normal for a change! Teens for highs and single digit lows will make it feel like January
Mild Saturday
Colder Sunday (New Year)
Just When You Thought Winter Finally Arrived...
Just when you thought winter finally arrived, think again. The extended forecast looks warm once again. Temperatures may surge back into the 40s by the end of the week!
That's all for now, thanks for checking in and enjoy the last of 2011!
Meteorologist Todd Nelson

No comments:

Post a Comment