75 F. average high for June 4.
84 F. high last year, on June 4, 2011.
Dry weather on tap today, highs reaching the mid-80s with a southeast breeze at 5-10 mph.
.77" rain predicted for MSP by Friday (NAM model). A few T-showers are possible Wednesday, heavier T-storms Thursday and Friday as a vigorous warm front approaches Minnesota.
Slight severe risk Thursday and Friday. Conditions may be ripe for an MCS system to form late each night, a mesoconvective system, capable of heavy rains and frequent lightning.
5 days above 80, as of June 4, 2011.
Drippy Dew Points Imminent. Here's the dew point prediction for KMSP, courtesy of Iowa State (go Cyclones!). Dew points are expected to peak this weekend in the low to mid 70s. Factor in highs in the low to mid 90s, and it may feel like upper 90s to near 100 Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Note to self: lake water temperatures are in the upper 60s to near 70. This may be the best cabin weekend of the summer season, to date.
8" rain reported in parts of central and southern Maine over the weekend, over 7" reported at Portland, Maine.
98 F. high at Salt Lake City, Utah Monday, breaking the old record of 96 F in 1988. Source: NOAA.
84 Hour Rainfall Prediction. After a dry day today (make the most of it) an approaching warm frontal boundary will leave the atmosphere irritable, capable of a few T-showers Wednesday, with a possibility of stronger T-storms Thursday and Friday. The heaviest (.5 to 1.5") rainfall amounts are forecast to fall north/east of the Twin Cities.
Officials: New Orleans Ready For Hurricanes. I hope those officials are right; here's an excerpt from Insurance Journal: "The Army Corps of Engineers — responsible for the massive rebuilding of hurricane protection after the devastation of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 — and leaders from around the metropolitan area say they’re working closely on emergency planning as the new hurricane season officially gets under way June 1. With billions of dollars invested in new levees, floodwalls and other flood protection, and an overhaul of cooperative emergency planning that emerged from the Katrina disaster, officials say citizens should have greater confidence that if tropical weather sweeps out of the Gulf of Mexico this year the systems and infrastructure in place are up to the test."
Photo credit: AP Photo/Gerald Herbert.
"The last three years have been brutal for insurance companies writing business in Minnesota due to the severe weather. Do you think our current weather patterns are here to stay, ie, get used to it?"
Vice President - Personal Lines
RAM Mutual Insurance Company
Kevin - great question. The trends are pretty convincing in the severe weather department. Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground believes the last 2 years have been the most severe for the USA since 1816. We're seeing more extreme weather events, more hail and more downpours, in fact, the number of severe, 3"+ downpours across the Upper Midwest has doubled in the last 50 years. There's no strong link (yet) between climate change and tornadoes, but there's little doubt that excessive rainfall events are on the rise, probably hail too, and this pattern will almost certainly accelerate as we pump more greenhouse gases into the atmossphere in the years ahead.
A Fine Summer Day. As far as the atmosphere is concerned summer really began back on June 1, marking the stretch of what is, historically at least, the 90 warmest days of the year. A few instability T-showers popped from Duluth to Hayward, Wisconsin, .12" of rain at Duluth. Highs ranged from 57 at Grand Marais to 84 at St. Cloud and the Twin Cities, 86 at Redwood Falls.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
Climate Scientists Lament A Nation Stuck On The Wrong Debate. Here's an excerpt from a story at insideclimatenews.org: "The global warming debate in Congress, the states and on the campaign trail centers on two issues: Is Earth warming, and if so are humans to blame? But ask most climate scientists, and they'll tell you that these are the only questions not in dispute. Climate change is a matter of how bad and by when, they'll say—not whether. "Scientists are inherently skeptical," says Lonnie Thompson, a paleoclimatologist at Ohio State University, who has led studies of glaciers and ice sheets in 16 countries. "After enough evidence and observation, though, you have to start to accept findings. That is what happened with climate change. This wasn't a rash conclusion."
Photo credit above:
"US emissions have now fallen by 430 Mt (7.7%) since 2006, the largest reduction of all countries or regions. This development has arisen from lower oil use in the transport sector … and a substantial shift from coal to gas in the power sector."How big is a cut of 430 million tonnes of CO2? It's equal to all CO2 from all Canadians outside Alberta. From a US perspective, it's equal to eliminating the combined emissions of ten western states: Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Utah and Nevada."
* image of Hurricane Ivan above courtesy of NASA.
Photo credit above: B.C. Forbes. "Growing shrubs in the Arctic of western Siberia."