30 days at or above 90 F. so far in 2012.
76 F. average high for September 4.
71 F. high on September 4, 2011.
Rain possible early today, but skies should quickly clear out and dry out behind a cool front.
40-degree dew point by this evening, meaning half as much water in the air above MSP as yesterday.
.30" rain showers predicted for Friday (00z NAM model).
WRF Solution. After a soggy start skies slowly clear across Minnesota later today, showers and T-storms pushing into Wisconsin and the Chicago area. Heavy showers and T-storms sprout this afternoon from Hartford to Atlanta - more potentially heavy downpours for DNC festivities in Charlotte.
Hurricane Leslie. For now it appears that Hurricane Leslie will spare New England, but Nova Scotia and Prince Edwards Island, Canada may not be so lucky. Bermuda may be struck by hurricane-force winds later this week. GFS solution above valid on September 11 (the day when hurricanes are most likely to reach land over the USA).
Leslie's Track. Models show an eventual drift to the north/northeast, away from coastal New England. With water temperatures over the North Atlantic 5-10 F. warmer than average, I wouldn't be surprised to see Leslie reach the Canadian Maritimes as a significant hurricane early next week. Map: Ham Weather Alerts Broadcaster. More information on Leslie from NOAA NHC.
101 F. heat index in Des Moines Tuesday.
Tuesday Severe Storm Reports. 3" diameter hail at Canton, Minnesota? That'll put a ding in your Prius. There were numerous reports of large hail over southeastern Minnesota, and straight-line wind damage over central Wisconsin. An interactive map from Ham Weather here.
Rainfall Required To Ease Drought. This map, courtesy of NOAA and Ham Weather, puts things into better perspective. Over 9" of rain is required near Austin and Albert Lea to pull out of the drought, closer to 11" over the Red River Valley. Portions of Iowa and Nebraska are even drier.
Photo credit above: Mike Kittrell/Press-Register/AP Photo.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
* 50s and 60s return for highs the latter half of next week behind the next (colder) front.
Yes, the UK had a cool summer, but looking at the entire Northern Hemisphere, warming has been pervasive. It's not just the USA.
I'm still worried about drought. It's expanding north and east. Lake water levels are falling, sugar maples are yellowing prematurely, due to dry weather. Sunday at the State Fair it looked like a mini Dust Bowl kicking up. We need rain.
So I won't complain about T-storms today; the best chance of puddles this morning. Cool exhaust on the backside of the front drops highs into the 60s and low 70s the latter half of the week. It will finally start to feel like September.
A sunny, comfortable weekend gives way to a warming trend next week, before another (colder) shot by week's end.
"Leslie" should spare New England, brushing Nova Scotia in 1 week.
* photo above: Steve Burns.
Graph credit above: "Arctic sea-ice volume 1979–25 August 2012." Data: PIOMAS. Graph: L. Hamilton
- Two decades after the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, most governments have agreed that limiting the increase in the average surface temperature of the Earth to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would represent a tolerable amount of global warming.
- But the annual amount of human-caused global emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas driving climate change, is now about 50 percent larger than in 1992.
- A failure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions significantly within the next decade will have large adverse effects on the climate that will be essentially irreversible on human timescales.
Photo credit above: "Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaking in front of closed Solyndra plant."