75 F. average high for September 9.
90 F. high on September 9, 2011.
Red Flag Warning posted for the southwestern third of Minnesota for a heightened risk of fast-moving brushfires into Tuesday.
90+ F. high likely Tuesday afternoon; 31st day at or above 90 this year in the metro area.
Wednesday PM into Thursday: next chance of rain in the metro area. Some .25 to .50" amounts are possible.
...RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY... .ON MONDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BETWEEN RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S WILL ASSIST IN PRODUCING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT AS THE WINDS INCREASE. THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS...STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA...THROUGH WILLMAR AND MANKATO...DOWN TO ALBERT LEA. WHILE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS WINDS DECREASE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP ON TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP TO BETWEEN 90 AND 95 DEGREES UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR 20 PERCENT AGAIN AND RESULT IN HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND DECREASING WINDS COULD REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLIER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
Today's Weather Map. The WRF model (valid 4 pm today) shows dry weather over the eastern 2/3rds of America, showers and T-storms confined to south Florida. Monsoon thunderstorms are likely over the southwestern U.S., more flash flooding possible from near San Diego to Phoenix, showery rains pushing into Seattle and Tacoma.
Summery Start - Autumny by Midweek. The ECMWF model also shows highs at or above 90 Tuesday, followed by a midweek cooling trend, light rain possibly by Wednesday. We cool off the latter half of the week (upper 60s to near 70), followed by yet another weekend of sunshine and 70s (80 possible next Sunday). More significant rian is predicted by Monday of next week. I hope the models are right.
Photo credit above: "A car and lawn are covered in marsh grass after floodwaters from Hurricane Isaac receded in Braithwaite, La., Thursday, Sept. 6, 2012. Isaac hit southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi last week, causing severe flooding and seven deaths." (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Photo credit above: "This aerial photo shows flooded homes and citrus orchards in the aftermath of Hurricane Isaac in Plaquemines Parish, La., Wednesday, Sept. 5, 2012." (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
Photo credit above: NASA/Tony Landis
* YouTube video above courtesy of Joe FitzGerald.
Flawless September Sunday. Yesterday was something out of a postcard from the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce. It was perfect, and yes, I'm editorializing. Under a blue sky the mercury rose to 67 at International Falls, 75 St. Cloud and the Twin Cities, 76 at Redwood Falls.
Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
- In New Hampshire, data collected at the federal Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in Woodstock suggest that sugar maples are going dormant two to five days later than they were two decades ago."
Image credit above: "NASA says that Arctic Sea ice has reached a record low that is going lower."