Cold Continues, Warming by End of Week; Nor'easter Developing by Thanksgiving?

A Wild Ride

By Todd Nelson


"If you don't like the weather in Minnesota, just wait 24 hours" - Wait, back up. Let's rewind about 48 hours. Yea, that's what I meant.
The 69F record high around 4pm Saturday at the Twin Cities Airport was absurdly disrupted by a powerful cold front that dropped temperatures by 41F at 4pm Sunday. It was as if Mother Nature pulled some sick joke on us; damaging thunderstorms Saturday night to light snow accumulations 12 hours later.

Atmospherically speaking, this is about as strong a cold front as you will EVER find across the Lower 48. Amazingly, temperatures in parts of Wisconsin on Sunday were in the 60s, while temperature in the Dakotas with a fresh 12" to 18" of snow were in the single digits!
We'll still be feeling the effects of that cold front over the next couple of days as temperatures slowly warm from their coldest since early March.

I don't see any major storms in sight, but extended models are hinting at another potential Nor'Easter days before Thanksgiving? Stay tuned for more on that, hopefully it's just a model hiccup.

Meanwhile, those heavy jackets you've pulled out for today may be replaced by lighter ones later this week; 50s possible by Friday? -Todd Nelson
__________________________________________________________________________

Todd's CONSERVATION MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota (and western Wisconsin too):

MONDAY: Lingering clouds and perhaps even a few passing flurries, mainly across northern MN. Increasing sunshine late. Coldest day since early March.  High: 30.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and cold, winds taper. Low: 20.

TUESDAY: Cold start! Jacket worthy, fading sundhine late. High: 40. Low: 28.

WEDNESDAY: AM sprinkle? A little warmer. High: 45. Low: 30.

THURSDAY: Quiet, a little warmer yet. High: 47. Low: 32.

FRIDAY: Mild sunshine, 50s in southern Minnesota. High: 48. Low: 35.

SATURDAY: 50s closer to home. 50. Low: 35.

SUNDAY: A few more clouds, still mild. High: 50. Low 36

_________________________________________________________________________________

Monday, November 12th, 2012

Here's the cold front that we're dealing with... quite a front, eh? Temperatures within a few hundred mild span are nearly 50F different!

24 Hour Temp Change

Impressive 24 hour temperature changes were common across the mid-section of the nation on Sunday. In some cases, there were 50F swings. The graphic below is just a snapshot of how dramatic it was at one point Sunday.

Snow From Space

This is what the visible satellite revealed on Sunday as skies began to clear across the Plains. That white strip you see is the large snow swath that was deposited from the powerful Pacific storm. There was quite a bit more across parts of Montana and other mountainous states, but this is what it looked like east of the Rockies.

Severe Weather

With such a dynamic system, severe weather isn't all that uncommon/unusual. Take a look at the storm report map from over the weekend.

Nasty Storms

This is just a sample of what some of the thunderstorms looked like. The radar image below was from Saturday night as a line of straight line wind producing storms rolled through the Twin Cities. There were several reports of damage; uprooted trees, downed power lines and structural damage.

Twin Cities Damage Reports

These are the storm reports from around the Twin Cities as the moved through Saturday night.

See more from the SPC HERE:

0500 UNK LAKEVILLE DAKOTA MN 4468 9324 TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. (MPX)
0500 UNK BURNSVILLE DAKOTA MN 4476 9328 TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. (MPX)
0503 UNK 1 S BURNSVILLE DAKOTA MN 4475 9328 STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO RESIDENTIAL HOUSE ... SHINGLES OFF. (MPX)
0503 UNK 1 NNW MENDOTA HEIGHTS DAKOTA MN 4490 9315 STRUCTURAL DAMGE TO SENIOR RESIDENTS ... ROOF DAMAGE. FRESH LAID SOD WAS PILED UP NEXT TO BUILDING. TEMPORARY EVACUATION FOR STRUCTURAL ASSESSMENT. (MPX)
0506 UNK EAGAN DAKOTA MN 4482 9316 TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. (MPX)
0506 UNK INVER GROVE HEIGHTS DAKOTA MN 4483 9306 TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. (MPX)
0512 UNK LILYDALE DAKOTA MN 4492 9313 LILYDALE POOL AND YACHT CLUB ... CANOPY TORN OFF. DECK FURNITURE DAMAGED. MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE INCLUDING A BROKEN ENTRY DOOR. (MPX)
0515 UNK SOUTH ST PAUL DAKOTA MN 4489 9304 TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. (MPX)
0515 UNK MOUNDS VIEW RAMSEY MN 4511 9321 TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. (MPX)
0516 70 ST PAUL RAMSEY MN 4495 9310 (MPX)
0516 UNK ST PAUL RAMSEY MN 4495 9310 NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LARGE TREES DOWN AND DUMPSTERS IN STREET. NEAR ST PAUL AIR PORT. TIME ESTIMATED. (MPX)
0520 UNK MAHTOMEDI WASHINGTON MN 4506 9296 NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED. 

Monday Severe Weather Outlook

The good news is that the severe weather threat for Monday should be minimize quite a bit. It appears as if the cold front will lose some of its punch as it works east of the Mississippi Valley. It'll still be quite a cool front, but the severe weather threat looks to be diminished by quite a margin! The area in green below is a general thunderstorm outlook for Monday, note that there is no organized severe thunderstorms forecast!

Forecast Highs - Post Cold Front

Considering how warm it was over the weekend east of the Mississippi Valley, temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be quite a bit cooler.

Highs Monday:

Highs Tuesday: 

Precipitation Forecast

As the front pushes east, showers and storms will head east along with it. NOAA's HPC 5 day precipitation forecast suggests up to 2" in a few spots across the Lower Mississippi Valley early this week. Note also the next sure of Pacific moisture moving into the NW!

Developing Nor'Easter?

I hope this is just a hiccup in the weather models, but the latest GFS models is hinting at a developing storm across the eastern seaboard a few days prior to Thanksgiving. It's not set in stone yet and I hope it's wrong, but it's something to watch especially if you have travel plans next week!

Thanks for checking in, have a great week ahead!

Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV