74 F. average high on June 2.
76 F. high on June 2, 2012.
Frost Advisory in effect for northeastern MN and northern Wisconsin.
1.02" rain predicted by Friday morning in the Twin Cities.
Unrecognizable. I'm not 100% certain, but I have a strong hunch this is the vehicle that Tim Samaras, his son and chase partner were driving when they were killed by the EF-3 El Reno tornado, that changed direction suddenly. If this doesn't make you shudder, and reconsider the wisdom of getting close to tornadoes, I'm not sure what will. Image courtesy of CNN.
Where Are We Living Again? I had to do a double-take when I saw the Frost Advisory posted for northeastern MN and much of northern WI for early this morning. Are you kidding me? We're still witnessing a 4-6 week lag in the weather; as far as the atmosphere is concerned it's the last week of April or first week of May.
Ditto. Like cool and soggy? Well I have a forecast for you. We salvage a mostly-dry Monday, as clouds increase out ahead of the next trough of low pressure. Showers are likely Tuesday and Wednesday, the atmosphere probably too cool and stable for anything severe. We dry out (for a few hours) Thursday and Friday, before the next system comes in late Saturday into Sunday. ECMWF model guidance prints out 1.3" rain on Sunday.
More Blobs. A southward-sagging jet stream, about 300-500 miles farther south than average, is bringing unusually chilly Canadian air into northern tier states. Storms are most likely to spin up along the boundary separating hot from cool, so as long as that huge north-south contrast is hovering nearby, with the core of the jet stream howling almost directly overhead, it's going to stay wet. 84 hour NAM loop courtesy of NOAA.
Timing The Puddles. All the models pull in some .5 to 1" rainfall amounts Tuesday and Wednesday, then a dry stretch most of Thursday, Friday and the first half of Saturday before more showers and T-storms slosh in; right now Sunday appears to be the wetter day of the weekend.
East Coast Tropical Depression? NHC only attaches a 20% risk of strengthening to tropical storm strength, but a moisture-laden depression or tropical wave will push flooding rains into Florida Thursday; the storm then pushing right up the east coast the end of the week, possibly soaking New York, Providence and Boston by Saturday. Stay tuned. ECMWF guidance above courtesy of WSI.