15 F. temperatures will average 15 F. cooler than normal today.
Sunday still looks like the nicer, sunnier, milder day of the weekend.
Photo credit: Herbert Stellner III
Map above: SPC reports only 6 tornadoes in Minnesota so far in 2013.
* Tropical Storm Dorian has weakened over the last 24 hours, packing 50 mph sustained winds. It's running into drier air with increasing wind shear, preventing the storm from strengthening to hurricane status for at least the next 4-5 days as it pushes toward Cuba.
* Tropical Storm Flossie expected to weaken into a tropical depression before drifting over Hawaii; capable of torrential rains and significant flooding by Tuesday of next week.
Summary: our goal is to set expectations, and although Dorian is fairly unimpressive (today) we need to continue to collectively monitor this storm, and possible implications for the U.S. Florida stands the best chance of soaking rains from Dorian by the middle of next week; a solution that brings Dorian into the Gulf of Mexico could threaten much of the Gulf Coast with a much more significant storm or possible hurricane. Again, it's too early to make a long-term determination of impacts or possible U.S. landfall at this time. Flossie will probably spark considerable flash flooding over Hawaii by Tuesday-Wednesday of next week. I'm tempted to get on a plane and personally coordinate preparation efforts on Waikiki Beach, but - alas - there's a high probability that won't happen. I'll keep you in the loop with updates - hopefully Dorian's long-term track will emerge from the meteorological noise within the next 48-72 hours.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing, near-record chill. Low: 48
• The incidence of high-intensity tropical cyclones (Safir-Simpson categories 3-5) should increase, and the amount of rainfall in these storms should increase, upping the potential for freshwater flooding. These changes will not necessarily occur where tropical cyclones develop and thrive today. "Indeed," wrote Emanuel, "it is likely that there will be decreasing activity in some places, and increasing activity in others; models do not agree on such regional changes."
• Though experts disagree on this point, Emanuel's work suggests that weak events (tropical storms and Cat 1-2 storms) will become more frequent.
• "Very little work has been done on the problem of storm size," wrote Emanuel, "what little research has been done suggests that storm diameters may increase with global temperature. This can have a profound influence on storm surges, which are the biggest killers in tropical cyclone disasters..."
Photo credit above: "Joshua Tree National Park soon will share its California desert skies with a new close neighbor, a huge solar farm. It's part of a big renewable energy drive on public land." Photograph by Bill Hatcher, National Geographic.
Photo credit: "A drilling rig in North Dakota near the town of Stanley. Fracking is used in this area to tap oil reserves."
Photo credit above: " ." Photo: AFP
Photo credit above: "The huge Ivanpah solar plant is part of a push to expand renewable energy on U.S. federal land. The developer took steps to relocate a population of the endangered desert tortoise, below." Photograph by Jim West, Alamy