24 F. average high on January 22.
-2 F. high on January 22, 2013.
Windchill Warning in effect until noon today. It may feel like -35F at times this morning.
-20F lows possible next Monday and Tuesday in the Twin Cities, nearly as cold as Jan. 6-7.
Son of Polar Vortex
"As the days lengthen, the cold doth strengthen" the proverb goes. Yes it doth. Tired of the cold? Well, it's not tired of you. Not yet. Although I do see a faint glimmer of hope at the end of our polar tunnel. Long-range guidance shows some moderation late next week into early February, as the core of the coldest air lifts into Canada, however temporarily.
But through the middle of next week the Polar Vortex will do a painful pirouette - spokes of numbing air rotating fresh bursts of subzero air into the northern USA, one after another.
Temperatures struggle to hit 0F today, and highs next Monday may range from -3 to -8F; nearly as gasp-inducing as January 6-7. Some schools may close.
A clipper drops an inch or two of snow on your yard late Friday, again late Saturday, a brief uptick in temperature before the next inevitable temperature tumble on Sunday. Yes, a real winter.
Staring out your ice-encrusted window you may be wondering, "what happened to global warming?" NOAA reports that, globally, 2013 was the 4th warmest since 1880. Check out the blog; the entire planet was warmer in 2013 except for central Canada and parts of the US.
Perception becomes reality, right?
No Garden-Variety Cold Front. Wind Chill Warnings are posted this morning for most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin, including the Twin Cities metro area. Details from NOAA:
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY... A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY. * TIMING: SUBZERO TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. * WIND CHILL VALUES: AVERAGING BETWEEN 35 TO 45 BELOW ZERO. * WIND CHILL IMPACTS: EXPOSED SKIN MAY FREEZE IN AS LITTLE AS 5 TO 10 MINUTES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
January 22, 2014, Phoenix, AZ….Visitors arriving in the Southwest today from the Midwest are enjoying a wintry escape from polar vortex temps up north. The temps today in Phoenix will rise to 81 degrees. The biggest decisions are not which mittens to don, but rather to play golf or relax by a resort pool. “Our northern latitude friends are invited to leave their winter gear at home and thaw out in Greater Phoenix, “ explained Doug MacKenzie, Director of Media Relations for VisitPhoenix.com. “We offer more than 60,000 hotel rooms to fit everyone’s budget. The Waste Management Open, one of the largest golf tourneys commences next week and baseball’s spring training pitchers arrive the following week.”Visitors planning a getaway can see the various attractions, things to do, where to eat, and explore hotel options at VisitPhoenix.com. Phoenix is the 6th largest city in the USA and offers numerous daily flights."
* the raw data from NASA GISS is here.
Photo credit above: "In this Nov. 14, 2013 file photo, Typhoon Haiyan survivors walk through ruins in the village of Maraboth, in the Philippines. Last year was tied for the fourth warmest year on record around the world. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Tuesday released its global temperature figures for 2013. The average world temperature was 58.12 degrees (15.52 C) tying with 2003 for the fourth warmest since 1880." (AP Photo/David Guttenfelder).
* The Guardian's coverage of 2013 global temperature summaries is here.
- 2013 ties with 2003 as the fourth-warmest year globally since records began in 1880.
- The annual global combined land and ocean surface temperatures was 58.12 degrees Fahrenheit (14.52 degrees Celsius), 1.12 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average (the warmest year on record is 2010, which was 1.19 degrees Fahrenheit (0.66 Celsius) above the average.
- 2013 was the 37th consecutive year that the annual global temperature was above the average, which means that if you were born any year after 1976, you’ve never experienced a year when the global climate was average, let along cooler.
- Including 2013, 9 of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred in the 21st century, and just one year in the 20th century—1998—was warmer than 2013..."
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-01-noaa-world-4th-hottest.html#jCp
At the same time, NASA, which calculates records in a different manner, ranked last year as the seventh warmest on record, with an average temperature of 58.3 degrees (14.6 Celsius). The difference is related to how the two agencies calculate temperatures in the Arctic and other remote places and is based on differences that are in the hundredths of a degree, scientists said.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-01-noaa-world-4th-hottest.html#jCp
Graphic credit: Owen Freeman.
60 above: Floridians turn on the heat. Minnesotans plant gardens.
50 above: Californians shiver uncontrollably. People are sunbathing in Duluth.
40 above: Imported cars won't start. Minnesotans drive with the sunroof open.
32 above: Distilled water freezes. The water in Bemidji gets thicker.
20 above: New Mexicans don long johns, parkas, wool hats & mittens. Minnesotans throw on a flannel shirt.
15 above: New York landlords finally turn on the heat. People in MInnesota have one last cookout before it gets cold.
Zero: People in Miami evacuate the city - National Guard called out. Minnesotans close the windows.
10 below: Californians fly away to Mexico. Minnesotans dig their winter coats out of storage.
25 below: Hollywood implodes. Girl Scouts in Minnesota still selling cookies door to door.
40 below: Washington D.C. finally runs out of hot air. People in Minnesota let their dogs sleep inside.
100 below: Santa Claus abandons the North Pole. Minnesotans get upset because their minivans won't start.
460 below: All molecular motion stops (Absolute Zero on the Kelvin scale). People in Minnesota shout "cold 'nuff fer ya?"
500 below: Hell freezes over. Minnesota Public Schools open 2 hours late.
"To see things thousands of miles away, things hidden behind walls and within rooms, things dangerous to come to, that is the purpose of life." - The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.
TODAY: Windchill Warning. Sunny and numb. Feels like -35F. High: near 0
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Low: -5
FRIDAY: More clouds - milder. Inch or 2 of snow possible. High: 28
SATURDAY: Sunny start, 1-2" snow late? Wake-up: 5. High: 13
SUNDAY: Positively polar, PM feels like -30. Wake-up: 20s. High: 11 (falling rapidly by afternoon)
MONDAY: Risk of school closings. WC: -45. Wake-up: -19. High: -6
TUESDAY: Blue sky, less wind. Wake-up: -12. High: near 0
WEDNESDAY: Fading sun, not as Nanook. Wake-up: -8. High: 16
* ECMWF guidance shows highs in the low 30s next Thursday and Friday.
"Humanity is going to require a substantially new way of thinking if it is to survive." - Albert Einstein
Photo credit above: "The gradual warming of the North and Tropical Atlantic Ocean is contributing to climate change in Antarctica, a team of NYU scientists has concluded. The findings, which rely on more than three decades of atmospheric data, show new ways in which distant regional conditions are contributing to Antarctic climate change. Below, several glaciers in the Antarctic Peninsula pass between sharp mountain peaks and converge in a single calving front, as seen by Operation IceBridge while returning from a survey of the Ronne Ice Shelf on Nov. 1, 2012. NASA's Operation IceBridge is an airborne science mission to study Earth's polar ice. For more information about IceBridge, visit: www.nasa.gov/icebridge." Courtesy: Jefferson Beck/NASA IceBridge, National Science Foundation.
Friday Jan 24 Weyerhaeuser Chapel- 7-9 pm
Paul Douglas- "Climate Change Impacts in Minnesota"
Hip Hop Artist Forefeather presentation
Mark Reynolds- CCL Director- "Betting the Farm on Relationships"
Saturday Jan 25-Olin-Rice Science Center
9 am: Welcome
9:30 am: Climate Change Impacts on Minnesota
Agriculture- Tara Ritter- IATP (Institute on Agriculture and Trade Policy)
Ecology and Recreation- Lee Frelich- Forestry Dept U of MN
Health and Urban Living- Kristin Raab- MN Dept of Health
Followed by strategy sessions, planning, group start for new people from noon to 6 pm, then a skating party and other "fun stuff".