82 F. average high on June 25.
84 F. high on June 25, 2013.
.35" predicted for MSP by Monday (00z NAM model).
2.1" rain predicted by Monday (12z ECMWF).
1.73" rain predicted next 16 days (18z GFS model).
High Bust Potential
Meteorologists are risk-adverse; we deal in statistics, percentages and probabilities. We don't like to talk about errors, goofs or blunders. It's impolite. Instead we fixate on "busted forecasts" and try to learn from our (very public) mistakes.
When I travel east I'm still reminded of a tragically bone-headed 4th of July forecast...in 1976. I predicted drizzle. It POURED for 8 hours. Some people never forgot.
The next 1-2 weeks is, for many, the highlight of summer. Friends & family gathered at the lake - dinners, picnics and outdoor wish lists, all at the mercy of Mother Nature.
Yes, we're nervous, and for good reason.
2014: wettest year, to date - and probably the wettest June since 1871 at the rate we're going, with more T-storms in the forecast Friday into Sunday, as yet another sloppy front runs out of gas directly overhead. I don't think we'll see a rerun of last Thursday's tropical monsoon, but some 1-2 inch amounts are possible with these T-storms. Some additional flooding is possible.
Cooler, drier, Canadian air presses south next week with 70s by midweek. ECMWF data hints at 80F on the 4th with some sun. What can go wrong?
Light a candle. Hope for the best.
Lightning Science: 5 Ways Lightning Strikes People. This is Lightning Safety Awareness Week in the USA, and I found this resource from NOAA timely, considering that lightning-related injury and death peaks in June and July, nationwide. Here's an excerpt: "...When lightning strikes a tree or other object, much of the energy travels outward from the strike in and along the ground surface. This is known as the ground current. Anyone outside near a lightning strike is potentially a victim of ground current. In addition, ground current can travels in garage floors with conductive materials. Because the ground current affects a much larger area than the other causes of lightning casualties, the ground current causes the most lightning deaths and injuries. Ground current also kills many farm animals. Typically, the lightning enters the body at the contact point closest to the lightning strike, travels through the cardiovascular and/or nervous systems, and exits the body at the contact point farthest from the lightning. The greater the distance between contact points, the greater the potential for death or serious injury. Because large farm animals have a relatively large body-span, ground current from a nearby lightning strike is often fatal to livestock..."
* May was the 351st month in a row of global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average.
* More details on a toasty May around the world at Quartz.
* more detail on the history of tornado forecasting and the banning of the word "tornado" from CNN.
TODAY: More clouds than sun, a bit milder. Winds: SE 10. High: 79
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, risk of a T-storm. Low: 66
FRIDAY: Scattered T-storms, few downpours - heaviest rains north of MSP. High: 84
SATURDAY: Sticky with lot's of clouds, a few heavy T-storms. S 15. Wake-up: 70. High: 82
SUNDAY: A bit drier with more sun. Lingering T-storm risk. Wake-up: 72. High: 86
MONDAY: Warm sun, breezy - drying out. Wake-up: 70. High: 85
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, cool breeze. Dew point: 54. Wake-up: 63. High: 76
WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sun, comfortably cool. Wake-up: 59. High: 74
- Over the next four decades, the U.S. could lose between $66 billion and $106 billion worth of coastal property to rising waters. By the turn of the next century, between $238 billion to $507 billion worth of property could be under water. The losses will be predominantly along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.
- By 2050, "the average American will likely see 27 to 50 days over 95°F each year..."