81 F. average high on August 14.
78 F. high on August 14, 2013.
August 14, 1936: St. Paul swelters with a high of 108.
A Slippery Outlook
Dan Spencer summed it up best. "On cable TV they have a weather channel — 24 hours of weather. We had something like that where I grew up. We called it a window." That window comes in handy.
One of the frequent complaints I hear out on the street: "Paul, with all due respect, you're a bonehead. How can I read the paper and watch TV and get 5 different forecasts? Aren't you guys all using the same models?"
Good point. The best forecasts still use a man-machine mix. People and experience guide which models are have the best chance of approximating reality. And much like a financial planner sifting through Wall Street data, it all comes down to interpretation. In some countries meteorologists HAVE to use the official government forecast. Here in the USA we are free to disagree. We have the freedom to be wrong.
Storms prowl the state today; the best chance of getting wet south/west of MSP. The weekend looks sunnier, drier and warmer; highs surging into the 80s.
The maps look more like mid-July - a sluggish jet stream pumping tropical air north, sparking more beefy thunderstorms next week. We may even hit 90F once or twice.
Summer started slow but we're making up for lost time.
Increasingly Thundery Midwest: Flash Flood Potential Omaha & Sioux City. A surge of tropical air sets off T-storms over southwestern Minnesota today; a better chance of storms reaching the MSP metro late Saturday as highs surge well into the 80s to near 90F. Cooler air follows on Sunday, before temperatures heat up again next week. A stalled cut-off low keeps cool, showery weather over New England; orographic storms flaring up across the Rockies; more storms capable of flash flooding from near Daytona Beach to Miami. 4 KM NAM 60-hour rainfall accumulation: NOAA and HAMweather.
Photo credit above: "Pass Christian, Miss., Civil Defense Director Parnell McKay looks over the town's main business district after Hurricane Camille vlew through." (Photo by Jack Thornell, Associated Press)
Illustration credit above: Adam Voorhes.
Photo credit above: Michelle Starr/CNET.
TODAY: More clouds, a few T-storms, best chance south/west Minnesota. Dew point: 64. High: 82
FRIDAY NIGHT: A few T-storms, especially far southern MN. Low: 65
SATURDAY: Hot sun, T-storms by Saturday night. Winds: NE 8. High: 88
SUNDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, cooler with another shower or two. DP: 64. Wake-up: 67. High: 79
MONDAY: Sticky, PM T-storms. Dew point: 68. Wake-up: 69. High: 83
TUESDAY: Some sun, lingering T-shower. Wake-up: 67. High: 84
WEDNESDAY: Intervals of sun, feels like July. Wake-up: 68. High: 86
THURSDAY: High humidity. Steamy sun. DP: 69. Wake-up: 69. High: 88
Our analysis demonstrates that the upper-tropospheric moistening observed over the period 1979–2005 cannot be explained by natural causes and results principally from an anthropogenic warming of the climate. By attributing the observed increase directly to human activities, this study verifies the presence of the largest known feedback mechanism for amplifying anthropogenic climate change.