32 F. average high on December 1.
34 F. high on December 1, 2013.
68 F. record high for December 1 (1998).
December 1, 1985: Record low highs were set in north and east central Minnesota with temperatures ranging from the single digits below zero to the singles digits above. Alexandria was the cold spot with a high of 4 degrees Fahrenheit below zero. Other low high temperatures included Redwood Falls with 3 below, Long Prairie with zero, and Litchfield and Little Falls with 5 degrees above zero.
December 1, 1982: Warm up over Southern Minnesota. Record high of 63 degrees at Twin Cities.
The weather rhymes but it rarely repeats. Every storm is different - every winter unique. Which is a long, linguistically-challenged way of saying this winter probably won't look anything like last winter.
The jet stream is meandering more, getting stuck, temporarily locked in blocking patterns with greater frequency. This may or may not have something to do with rapid warming of the arctic. Scientists, increasingly, are seeing a potential connection.
Our on-again, off-again El Nino is kicking in with renewed intensity that has surprised some oceanographers I know. Nothing is guaranteed (ever) but this observable warming of Pacific Ocean water SHOULD keep Minnesota and much of the northern tier of the USA milder than last winter.
In theory. On paper. Your results may vary.
Computer models consistently show a warming trend as we push deeper into December; a thaw this weekend, with a longer period of 30s, even a few 40s by mid-month. Big storms spin up from the Deep South to the East Coast (another symptom of El Nino) with little snowy or icy excitement close to home the next 2 weeks.
The Twin Cities' 2 inches of snow on the ground is in peril. A brown Christmas? 1 in 3 odds.
Warming Trend. After a numbing November for the northern tier of the USA it looks like the weather pendulum may swing in the other direction for much of December, as prevailing steering winds aloft become more westerly with time - possibly a symptom of a strengthening El Nino signal in the Pacific. No telling how harsh January will be yet, but December may wind up milder than November, which is a bit odd.
Flash Flood Potential. Our internal models are printing out some 3"+ rainfall amounts from Los Angeles and Pasadena to Rancho Cucamonga, California in the coming days. I expect significant flooding and numerous mudslides as excessive rains fall on land parched by drought and wildfires.
* The New York Times has their take on Gov. Cuomo's new proposed New York State mesonet; what it can do, and what it won't be able to do (predict lake effect days in advance).
TODAY: Mostly cloudy and breezy. Not as cold. Winds: S 10-15. High: 25
TUESDAY NIGHT: Patchy clouds, still chilly. Low: 10
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, still colder than average. High: 22
THURSDAY: A little snow or flurry activity. Icy coating? Wake-up: 16. High: 27
FRIDAY: Mix of clouds & sun. Not bad. Wake-up: 15. High: 31
SATURDAY: Sunny, thawing out nicely. Wake-up: 18. High: 34
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, OK travel weather. Wake-up: 24. High: 36
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, colder wind kicks in. Wake-up: 21. High: 26
Photo credit above: "
Image credit above: "The new report warns that climate change could increase the number of heatwave exposure events people over 65 experience by three times by the year 2100, putting them at risk."
* The full 124 page report (PDF) is here.
Photo credit: "Skiiers ride a lift to the slopes the Val Thorens ski resort as the skiing season opens on November 22, 2014, in the French Alps."