Saturday, May 9, 2015
Happy Mother's Day!
Happy Mother's Day!
By Todd Nelson
I was at my favorite big box yesterday and happened to strike up a conversation with a group of Mom's that were chatting about their significant others being gone for the weekend. When I asked them how they felt about the fishing opener conveniently coinciding with Mother's Day, they all mentioned how wonderful it was to be able to spend uninterrupted time with their grandmother, mother, daughter and or granddaughter. You see, they were a group of three generations of Moms in the same family and cherished this one day a year they had alone. Now that's perspective.
Mother Nature is having a little fun of her own today across the Upper Midwest. While we get a few showers and storms across Minnesota today, parts of Iowa could see severe weather and the Black Hills of South Dakota could see as much as 1 to 2 feet of snow by the end of the day. No kidding! My perspective? I'll take 50s and wind-whipped spotty showers over shoveling at this point in the year, how about you?
It'll be a cool and showery start to the week with a few flakes possible up north, but May-like weather returns by the end of the week. 70s look possible next weekend. Happy Mother's Day!
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds thicken. Showers and an isolated rumble of thunder possible across southern Minnesota late. Low: 50. Winds: NE 10-15.
SUNDAY:Breezy and unsettled for Mom. High: 62. Winds: E 15-25
SUNDAY NIGHT: Spotty showers and storms. Low: 52. Winds: E 10-15
MONDAY: Cloudy with scattered showers. Flakes up north? High: 61. Winds: SSW 10.
TUESDAY: Breezy and cool. Lingering shower. Wake-up: 43. High: 55.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny start with a few PM showers. Wake-up: 42. High: 59.
THURSDAY: Getting there. Brief PM rumble of thunder? Wake-up: 47. High: 66.
FRIDAY: Feels like May again. Spotty shower. Wake-up: 52. High: 70.
SATURDAY: Mild and unsettled. Wake-up: 55. High: 72.
This Day in Weather History
1934: "The Classic Dust Bowl." Dust storm causes damage over the region. Extensive damage and near daytime blackout in the Twin Cities and west central Minnesota. Dust drifts and automobiles driving with their headlights on due to the dust. Damage done to personal property due to fine dust sifting inside homes and businesses. Drifts of dust and soil 6 inches deep on roads at Fairmont.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 68F (Record: 90F set in 1987)
Average Low: 47F (Record: 27F setin 1907)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Moon Phase for May 10th at Midnight
0.2 Days Before Last Quarter
Minneapolis Temperature Trend
Weather conditions take a bit of a sour turns heading into the late weekend/early week time frame. Temperatures will dip into the 50s and 60s for much of the state with a few 40s across the northern part of the state. We gradually climb back to near average by the end of the week/weekend ahead and perhaps even above average by Memorial Weekend. Cross your fingers!
Sunday Weather Outlook
Temperatures on Sunday will be quite cool across the state as a storm system moves through the region. Highs across northern Minnesota will hold steady in the 40s, while highs across the southern part of the state will warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will also be on the increase through the day with wind gusts approaching 30mph at times in a few locations across western MN.
Sunday Weather Outlook
The heaviest and steadiest rain across the region will be across the Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota through Sunday, but showery and somewhat unsettled weather will be in place across much of the state through early next week. The images below suggests the weather conditions by early/mid afternoon Sunday
Here's the simulated radar from through AM Monday, which shows the increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the region on Mother's Day Sunday. Keep in mind that the heaviest and steadiest of the rain will be found across the eastern Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota, while spottier heavier downpours will be found across parts of central and eastern Minnesota.
It appears the heaviest and steadiest of the rain will be across the northwestern part of the state through Monday, but the Twin Cities will still get some much needed rainfall. Nearly 0.50" to 0.75" or rain may be possible through early next week.
National Weather Outlook
The main area of low pressure moving through the central part of the country through PM Monday is pretty evident in the loop below. Watch the "L" move northeast through the Midwest and note the snow across parts of the Dakotas, while heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms will possible across parts of the Plains.
Severe Threat Sunday
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD TO PORTIONS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
TEXAS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.
A STRONG MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/NRN GREAT PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED EWD-ADVANCING TROUGH
TRAILING SWD TO NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...A SFC CYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED INVOF SW NEB...WITH A
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE CYCLONE CENTER TO THE
TX BIG BEND. A BROAD CORRIDOR OF GULF-MODIFIED AIR WILL EXIST E OF
THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT...AND S OF A NWD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT
EXTENDING E OF THE CYCLONE.
...ERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS EWD TO PORTIONS OF THE MS
LOW-LEVEL POLEWARD MASS FLUXES AS A RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS IN THE EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING HIGH-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK COUPLED WITH MODEST DCVA PRECEDING THE BASE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH...MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX INTO OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NNEWD AS 50-70-KT OF LARGELY
MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED CLOUD-LAYER FLOW SUPPORTS THE FORWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE MOIST AIR MASS E OF THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED OCCURRENCES OF
SVR HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT DEVELOPS TOWARD THE
OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLEY. POCKETS OF DIURNAL HEATING COULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE THE SVR-TSTM RISK...ESPECIALLY IF COLD POOLS AMALGAMATE AND
FOSTER LOCALIZED UPSCALE GROWTH. HOWEVER...LARGE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN THE MOIST/MODESTLY
CAPPED AIR...AND THERE WILL EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.
W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY...DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT FROM
NEAR THE SFC CYCLONE SWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. WITH
AROUND 40-55 KT OF DEEP SHEAR...THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SVR HAIL/WIND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. THE EARLY-DAY CONVECTION MAY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO RESTRICT THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND PERHAPS MAGNITUDE OF
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...TWO AREAS OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED SVR-TSTM RISK WILL EXIST:
/1/ THE STRONGEST DCVA PRECEDING THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CYCLONE WILL
COVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING. AS
THE STRONG ASCENT OVERLAPS WITH PARTIALLY MODIFIED AND PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY INFLUENCED/PROCESSED AIR DURING PEAK HEATING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WILL INCREASE FROM PARTS OF FAR ERN NEB TO
SERN SD...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NEWD/ENEWD. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SVR HAIL AND TORNADOES MAY BE ENHANCED WITH THESE STORMS OWING TO
LONG/CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND APPRECIABLE BACKGROUND VERTICAL VORTICITY
NEAR THE SVR CYCLONE/WARM FRONT. BUOYANCY COULD BE THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND/OR SIGNIFICANT-SVR RISK.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL EXIST SOME RISK FOR A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT TO
OVERLIE THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON YIELDING SOME INSOLATION AND
RELATED DESTABILIZATION BEFORE SFC-BASED CONVECTION MATERIALIZES. IF
THIS WERE TO OCCUR...GREATER SVR RISK MAY EVOLVE...THOUGH STRONG
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING UPSTREAM/REGIONAL CONVECTION AND ITS
EFFECTS ON DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.
/2/ ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX TO N TX -- THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
DIURNALLY ENHANCED SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MORE
COMPLETELY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F/.
MODERATE TO STRONG H7-H5 SSWLY/SWLY FLOW WILL TRAIL SWD INTO THESE
AREAS ABOVE SSELY SFC WINDS TO SUPPORT LONG/CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. THE INFLUX OF AN EML PLUME AHEAD
OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL FURTHER REINFORCE
DESTABILIZATION...AND ALL SVR HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS. SOME SIGNIFICANT TORNADO/HAIL RISK WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE
APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL SRH -- POTENTIALLY ENHANCED NEAR RESIDUAL
ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO DEVELOP
TOWARD THE MS VALLEY INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MORE MERIDIONAL
ORIENTATION TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESTRICT THE OVERALL EWD
ADVANCE OF THE SVR RISK.
...NERN SC/ERN NC...
A MARGINAL TORNADO/DMGG-WIND RISK MAY ACCOMPANY AREAS NEAR/IN THE NE
QUADRANT OF T.S. ANA. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING T.S.
ANA...PLEASE REFERENCE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
Severe Threat Monday
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND THROUGH EAST AND SOUTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
...SRN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF OH/TN VALLEYS...
THE DAY 2 CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY MOVING INTO NRN MN. MEANWHILE...MODELS TEND TO BE IN
AGREEMENT INDICATING A COUPLE OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSES EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY DAY 3 SHOULD PHASE ACROSS NEB/KS MONDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL/NRN U.S.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...KEEPING IT PROGRESSIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS EVOLUTION WILL SUPPORT
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL OCCLUDE FROM SRN MN
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER SRN
WI TRACKING INTO LOWER MI...AND EVENTUALLY REACHING SRN ONTARIO OR
SWRN QUEBEC BY 12Z TUESDAY.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER THE NWD EXTENT OF A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ERN IL THROUGH OH AND KY. MODELS SUGGEST
SEVERAL LINES OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRENGTHENING
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT FAVORING
LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO...WITH STORMS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. PART OF LOWER MI HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...WHERE...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG
FORCING COULD AID IN A SEVERE THREAT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAKENING INTO THE EVENING...A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
MAY PERSIST WITH EWD EXTENT AS DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS VEER TO WLY
AND STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
...MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY TO EASTERN AND SOUTH TX...
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER ALONG THE TRAILING
PORTION OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND INTO SOUTH TX. ALTHOUGH THIS REGION WILL BE REMOVED
FROM STRONGER FORCING AND HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SOME THROUGH
MONDAY...THE AVAILABILITY OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR SUPPORTS A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. THE
PRIMARY SOURCE FOR LIFT WILL BE THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND GIVEN
HEIGHT RISES...THE OVERALL COVERAGE FOR STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. THUS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN A 15 PERCENT PROBABILITY
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
DEVELOP LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH TX...AS
SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN SOME WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SRN-STREAM IMPULSE INTO THIS REGION. RESIDUAL MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG BULK SHEAR SUGGEST SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
...NC OUTER BANKS...
THE NEWD TRACK OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FROM ERN NC TO NEAR AND OFF
THE SRN DELMARVA REGION DURING MONDAY COMBINED WITH SOME
DESTABILIZATION IN THE ERN/NERN QUADRANT SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT. THIS THREAT SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF ANA MOVES OFFSHORE.
3 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's HPC, the 3 day precipitation forecast shows pockets of heavy moisture across the Southern Plains thanks to thunderstorm activity and pockets of heavy moisture across the Dakotas due to pockets of cold rain and heavy snow.
7 Day Precipitation Outlook
There doesn't appear to be much additional moisture across the middle part of the country on top of what we expect through early next week, but some additional heavier moisture may be possible across parts of Texas. Note the nearly 10" of rain possible through early next weekend!
Here's the snowfall potential through early next week and note the nearly 12" to 24" possible in the Black Hills region of South Dakota.
Significant South Dakota Snow
Here's the latest from the National Weather Service out of Rapid City, SD. Note that widespread 12" mounts with locally higher tallies may be possible in the higher elevations.
...STRONG SPRING SNOW STORM TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA...
.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY. RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE
FROM EAST CENTRAL WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. ON THE
PLAINS...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 IS EXPECTED...WITH ONE TO TWO
FEET OF SNOW FOR THE BLACK HILLS.
A WIDE RANGE OF SNOW TOTALS IS EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST
WYOMING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE FURTHER YOU GO NORTHWEST OF
A WIDE RANGE OF SNOW AMOUNTS IS ALSO EXPECTED THE CLOSER YOU GET
TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOR
HAAKON...JACKSON..AND BENNETT COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE RIDGES WITH
LESS SNOW IN THE RIVER BOTTOMS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW...THE
INTENSITY AND DURATION OF THE SNOWFALL... IN THIS AREA.
See more from the NWS Rapid City HERE:
The National Hurricane Center as of Saturday, May 6th was issuing Tropical Storm Advisories over the weekend for ANA, which developed just south of the Carolinas. The satellite loop below showed ANA's very gradual progress north on Saturday.
According to NOAA's NHC, the track for ANA keeps it Tropical Storm strength through early Sunday afternoon before losing strength into early next week.
Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your weekend. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX