By Todd Nelson
I am a father of a 5 and a 3 year old and feel like I've been roped into singing "Rain, rain, go away" far too many times over the past couple of weeks. It can be far more interesting around the house when your kids can't get outside to blow off some steam. While the rain is helping with the current drought situation, it's also threatening my sanity. Any parents with little ones may feel my pain. Deep breaths!
Expect lots of PM puddles as a weak storm system slides through the region today. It'll be a soggy start to your Friday, but we should clear out a bit to at least see a little sunshine by the end of the day. Our next storm system moves in this weekend with a better chance of strong to possibly even severe thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted parts of the state as a potential risk for stronger storms, so keep up to date with latest forecasts as we approach the weekend.
Extended forecasts suggest that with today's rain coupled with that over the weekend, we could be looking at nearly 1 to 2 inches of
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Breezy. Increasing clouds. Low: 50. Winds: SE 10-15.
THURSDAY: Rain. Lots of PM puddles. High: 57. Winds: SE 15.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Rain early, then mostly cloudy. Low: 51. Winds: SE 5-10 turning NNE
FRIDAY: Soggy start. Warme and drier afternoon. High: 72.
SATURDAY: Breezy and mild. Strong PM storms. Wake-up: 54. High: 76.
SUNDAY: Scattered showers and storms. A few heavy downpours. Wake-up: 63. High: 75.
MONDAY: Quickly drying. Cooler temps. Wake-up: 50. High: 64.
TUESDAY: Still dry, nothing rough. Wake-up: 42. High: 66.
WEDNESDAY: Spotty PM shower or storm. Wake-up: 50. High: 67.
This Day in Weather History
1935: Minneapolis sets a record high temperature of 95 degrees.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 69F (Record: 98F set in 2013)
Average Low: 48F (Record: 32F set in 1907)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Moon Phase for May 14th
2.9 Days Before New Moon
Minneapolis Temperature Trend
Cloudy, wet weather on Thursday will make for another cooler than average day. In fact, temperatures will be nearly 10° below average for some as most of us struggle to get to 60°. The good news is that we look to warm up to near or above average levels this weekend. Unfortunately, it appears that we will also have some unsettled weather as well. Shower and thunderstorm chances look to be on the rise with a few strong/severe storms possible close to home. Stay tuned!
Thursday Weather Outlook
Thursday will be a cool and somewhat breezy day across the region as an area of low pressure slides through the region. Most Minnesota locations will only warm into the 50s.
Thursday Weather Outlook
Outdoor plans for Thursday? You might want to have a plan B. It's going to be quite soggy across the entire region as an area of low pressure slides north through the region. It doesn't appear that we'll have any significant heavy downpours, but a steady light to moderate rain could give way to several PM puddles.
Here's the simulated radar from early Wednesday through the end of the week and note the more widespread are of rain moving through the region on Thursday. While it looks like a fairly soggy day, we're not expecting any severe weather!
We've certainly been getting some much needed rainfall as of late and it appears that more heavy rainfall will be on the way Thursday and again this weekend. The image below suggests the rainfall potential through midday Saturday. Note that a few areas may see as much as 0.50" to 1".
7 Day Precipitation Outlook
When it rains, it pours. According to NOAA's HPC, the 7 day precipitation forecast suggests an additional 3" to nearly 6" of rain possible for parts of the Central U.S.. The heaviest moisture looks to be across parts of Texas and Oklahoma, where as much as 6" to 10" of rain has already fallen over the last 7 days!
Rainfall Past 7 Days
The image below from the U.S. Drought Monitor from May 5th showed several locations across parts of Texas and Oklahoma under severe and exceptional drought concerns. It'll be interesting to see the latest drought update when that gets released later this week.
National Weather Outlook
The somewhat soggy and unsettled weather pattern will continue across the western half of the country through the end of the week. The first area of concern will be a weaker area of low pressure moving north through the middle part of the country through Thursday, while the second area of concern takes shape over the Western U.S. through the second half of the week. The first area of low pressure will be responsible for mainly just pockets of heavier rain, while the threats from the second storm will range from snow across the western mountains to late week/weekend severe storms and heavy rain across the Central U.S.
Severe Threat Ramping Up
We’re keeping an eye on the severe weather potential later this week/weekend as a fairly vigorous area of low pressure looks to develop in the Western U.S.. The image below shows the current area of energy/interest just west of the Pacific Northwest.
As the storm system develops over the next several days, it appears weather conditions on the eastern side of the storm will begin to become increasingly more unstable. The images below show the available energy (CAPE) for Friday and Saturday afternoon. Note that the more intense oranges and reds, which indicates a fairly substantial amount of energy available for storms to develop and feed from.
CAPE Friday 1pm CT
CAPE Saturday 1pm CT
Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX