65 F. average high on October 2.
60 F. high on October 2, 2014.
October 2, 1953: A record high of 90 degrees Fahrenheit for the St. Cloud area was recorded in 1953 (and later tied in 1992). Minneapolis also set a record that same day in 1953 with a high of 89 degrees.
October 2, 1849: Persistent rain at Ft. Snelling leaves 4 inches in a day-and-a half.
Model Envy: The European Model Wins Again
Meteorologists are drowning in data. We tap scores of weather models from around the world, looking for consistency and agreement before we issue a forecast. When models agree our confidence levels go up.
It doesn't make me happy to admit this, but we have a problem. NOAA has taken an entrepreneurial approach, with scores of models. The European Union has one model, the ECMWF. Once again it outperformed NOAA's models with Joaquin, predicting the hurricane would pass harmlessly out to sea 6 days ago. Much like Sandy in 2012 the "Euro" was superior to models from the USA, Britain & Canada.
It's not just raw computational horsepower; it's the physics within the model - and how new data is "initialized" that's different - and superior. No model is infallible, but we still have some catching up to do.
Fine weather lingers into much of next week as winds aloft blow from the Pacific; a zonal, west to east pattern favoring milder and drier than average. The next chance of showers? Thursday.
I see 60s, even a few 70s, into the third week of October. That's from the ECMWF model. Sorry.
* ECMWF track of Hurricane Joaquin from successive model runs earlier this week courtesy of WeatherBell.
* Hurricane Joaquin pushing out to sea - not a threat to the USA, but life-threatening conditions persist.
* Most serious river and urban flash flooding focused on Carolinas and portions of Georgia into the weekend.
* State of Emergency declared from southern New Jersey and Maryland into D.C, Virginia and the Carolinas for heavy rains, high winds and possible power outages related to a persistent storm over the Southeastern USA and a persistent fetch of high winds blowing off the Atlantic Ocean.
* Significant risk of river flooding from Maryland southward to the Carolinas over the next 3-5 days, according to NOAA analysis.
* Models suggest the hills of western North Carolina and much of South Carolina may receive another 7-12" of rain, leading to a severe, in some cases catastrophic flood risk. Most-impacted metro areas may include Asheville, Spartanburg, Columbia and Charleston.
* Persistent onshore winds (20-40 mph) will create minor to moderate coastal flooding into the weekend; areas within 5-6 feet of sea level may experience unusual levels of flooding, especially close to high tide, from the Carolinas northward to Long Island and Cape Cod into early next week. Graphic: AerisWeather.
Ocracoke Island, North Carolina, is under a mandatory evacuation, with 1,100 taken off the island
- The ground remains saturated over a widespread area. The risk for excessive rainfall ranges from slight to high across our area (highest across SC through tonight). The potential for dangerous flooding will persist into Monday.
- Flooding will make driving difficult as runoff collects across intersections and low spots. In addition, some small creeks may quickly get out of their banks and spill across the roadway. Any location where water is flowing across the road may result in a scour or complete wash out.
- The dangers of flooding are even higher at night as the hazards become harder to recognize. The combination of saturated ground conditions and wind gusts could lead to some downed trees Saturday through Sunday.
- Basin-wide heavy rainfall, locally and upstream, will allow all rivers to experience significant rises. Some of the rivers could begin to exceed flood stage by early next week, while others are a little slower to respond to the rainfall.
- Large waves are expected across the open ocean and large breakers are likely in the surf by this weekend with strong rip currents. Waves will be particularly steep near inlet entrances, especially with the falling tide.
- Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible with each high tide through the weekend. Additional beach erosion is possible from large breakers in the surf. Source: NOAA.
Joaquin will not score a direct strike on the USA, but some of the symptoms of this storm (strong pressure gradient whipping up coastal flooding) and a second storm stalled over the Carolinas, will continue to create disruptive, potentially life-threatening weather for the next 72-96 hours.
Paul Douglas, AerisWeather
Tracking Joaquin - And Record Rains Across the Southeast. Here's the latest GFS model showing Hurricane Joaquin pushing out to sea, but residual moisture swirling around a "cut-off" low will soak the Carolinas with potentially record rains. Dry weather lingers into the first half of next week across Minnesota; the next chance of showers next Thursday. Source: NOAA.
Image credit above here.
Photo credit above: " " Credit Ruth Fremson/The New York Times.
Photo credit above:
TODAY: Lot's of sun, breezy and pleasant. Winds: East 10-15. High: 62
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low: 46
SUNDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Winds: E 8-13. High: 60
MONDAY: Partly sunny, less wind. Wake-up: 48. High: 66
TUESDAY: Mild sun, very nice. Wake-up: 52. High: 71
WEDNESDAY: Sunny treadmill continues. Wake-up: 54. High: near 70
THURSDAY: Best chance of showers in sight. Wake-up: 51. High: 62
FRIDAY: More clouds than sun. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 49. High: 64