51 F. average high on October 30.
49 F. high on October 30, 2014.
October 31, 1991: Great Halloween Blizzard begins. Trick or Treating was memorable for the few who ventured out. 8.2" fell at MSP as of midnight on Halloween, 1991.
4 Days Above 60F Early Next Week
I can't decide whether to dress up as Donald Trump or Taylor Swift for Halloween this year. Maybe I'll stalk the neighbors dressed as El Nino? Be afraid.
Today won't win any awards for beauty and splendor; models hint at a few instability showers and sprinkles this afternoon and evening. I don't expect a steady, soaking rain; temperatures right around 50F for Trick or Treating.
We've seen much worse.
Speaking of rain, a suburb of Austin, Texas picked up 7 inches of rain in one HOUR yesterday - 15 to 18 inches of rain falling on ground already saturated from the soggy remains of Hurricane Patricia last week. More symptoms of an El Nino-energized pattern kicking in? Probably.
This same warm stain in the Pacific will pump unseasonably mild air into Minnesota next week; highs reach the 60s from Sunday into Wednesday. The latest ECMWF (European) model hints at 70F next Wednesday. I know, what November?
Models spin up a big (rain) storm the end of next week - it should feel more like November within 2 weeks.
Halloween 2015? More treat than trick. Set your clocks back tonight!
* Photo credit above: Mike Hall Photography.
Photo credit above: "Water pushed up by Hurricane Sandy splashes into the window of a building in Bellport, N.Y." REUTERS/Lucas Jackson.
California Officials Outline Preparations for El Nino Flooding. Reuters has an update on the potential for more serious weather-whiplash, in this case going from historic drought to flood as the symptoms of El Nino become more apparent. Here's an excerpt: "As California braces for torrential downpours this winter from El Nino, authorities have stockpiled extra sandbags across the state while putting hundreds of personnel through flood-control training, officials told state lawmakers on Wednesday. Water engineers and emergency managers addressed a state Senate hearing in Los Angeles on preparations for the El Nino phenomenon, a recurring climate pattern that warms parts of the Pacific and is expected to bring severe weather to California and other regions. The latest El Nino, with forecasts of powerful winter storms and drenching rains, is seen as a mixed blessing for California, which is struggling through the fourth year of a record drought..."
File photo credit from February 2, 1998 in Ventura, California: AP Photo/Nick Ut.
A Texas Republican and NOAA Are In a Standoff over Global Warming E-mails. Professional conspiracy theorists are chattering once again. A cover-up, "cooking the books", or science in action? New numbers from new and improved data sets show no slow-down in warming, no "hiatus". Here's an excerpt from Andrew Freedman at Mashable: "...Smith chairs the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, a perch he's used to push his anti-climate science views. Smith has sought to cut NASA's earth science budget, for example, while speaking out against the Obama administration's plans to limit manmade global warming. Smith has also done something unprecedented in the 54-year history of this committee: He has turned it into an oversight body, issuing six subpoenas, including a recent one to the administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) demanding the handing over of internal scientific correspondence concerning a landmark climate study published in one of the top scientific journals in the world earlier this year..."
NASA's TIMED Satellite Identifies Unexpected Carbon Dioxide Trends. Here's an excerpt from Gizmag: "NASA has analyzed 14 years worth of data collected by its Thermosphere, Inonosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite, revealing a surprisingly fast increase in carbon dioxide levels in the upper atmosphere. The stats also reveal that the gas is more localized to the Northern Hemisphere than predicted by climate models. Human activities like deforestation and burning fossil fuels are pumping huge amounts of carbon dioxide into the Earth's atmosphere. The gas is responsible for raising temperatures close to Earth's surface, but it has a very different effect in the upper atmosphere, reducing air density and actually having a cooling effect..."
Image credit above: "Data from NASA's TIMED mission is forcing us to reassess our knowledge of the relationship between the Earth's lower and upper atmosphere." (Credit: NASA).
Image credit above: "The process produces potable water, with 99.7 percent of the salt removed in one pass." (Credit: Shutterstock)
Photo credit above: "Craft beer is just about to completely explode and become unrecognizable to itself." Photo: Jed Egan.
HALLOWEEN: Some sun, few showers likely. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 57
SATURDAY NIGHT: Leftover shower or sprinkle, clouds linger. Low: 43
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, a milder, nicer day. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 63
MONDAY: More clouds than sun, above average. Wake-up: 47. High: 62
TUESDAY: Sunny, unusually mild for November. Wake-up: 46. High: 66
WEDNESDAY: What November? Warm sunshine. Wake-up: 51. High: near 70
THURSDAY: Sunny start, rain arrives late. Wake-up: 47. High: 53
FRIDAY: Potentially heavy rain. Wake-up: 45. High: 48 (falling)
On Saturday, November 7th at 9a in Prior Lake, MN Shepherd of the Lake Lutheran Church is hosting a Creation Care event that will examine the intersection of faith, climate change and weather. Presenters include myself, Dr. John Abraham (climate scientist from the University of St. Thomas) and faith leaders from the Lutheran, Methodist, MCC and Catholic church. RSVP at: http://www.sollc.org/creationcare.
Graph credit above: "Exxon spokesman Ken Cohen either misunderstood or misrepresented the chart pictured above as he pushed back against an InsideClimate News investigation into what Exxon's own scientists knew about the emerging risks of climate change, and when they knew it."
Illustration credit above: Stephanie Shafer
Image credit above: Shutterstock/Barnaby Chamber.