October 7, 2003: Record high temperatures were seen across the area. St. Cloud's high was 86 degrees Fahrenheit. Minneapolis tied their record of 85 degrees set in 1997, and Alexandria set their record with 88 degrees. Forest Lake reached a record-setting 82 degrees, along with Stillwater at 84 degrees.
October 7, 1980: Summer-like heat over Minnesota with 92 at Montevideo and 84 at the Twin Cities.
A Fine October: More 70s Brewing for The Weekend
"There was something horribly depressing, she felt, about watching the weather report. That life could be planned like the perfect summer picnic drained it of spontaneity” wrote Galt Niederhoffer.
I'm a big fan of spontaneity; there's far too little of it in my life. I'm a slave to my calendar and to-do list. We schedule and plan, but sometimes the weather gets in the way.
My oldest son is getting married at the end of the month up on Gull Lake. I'm hoping for the best. It could be 60F or snowing - or anything in-between. The accuracy of a 2 week forecast for a precise location is close to 50-50; the rough equivalent of a coin-flip. Honey, in the unlikely event you're reading this the forecast is "changeable".
Ask me in November.
Exhibit A: 4 years ago today the high was 85. In 2002 it snowed at MSP on October 7. Yes, October can be a manic month, but I still don't see any weather drama. Showers brush the state late Wednesday into early Thursday, but weekend highs surge well into the 70s. Long-range guidance hints at a frost risk late next week.
It's too quiet. I'm waiting for the other shoe (or boot) to drop.
What The European Model "Win" Means for Weather Forecasting. No weather model is infallible, but the ECMWF seems to - fairly consistently - do a better job with the tracks of tropical systems. Even so, as highlighted in a good article at The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang by Jason Samenow, the GFS has had its moments: "...There have been notable recent cases in which the GFS model provided a better forecast. For example, in 2012, the GFS model offered a more accurate track forecast for Hurricane Isaac which tracked through the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model also provided a better forecast last January when New York City city was supposed to be buried under more than two feet of snow according to the European model. In reality, only eight inches fell, closer to the GFS model forecast..."
Image credit above: "Hurricane Joaquin." (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.)
Photo credit above: "Water pours from a gate in the Lake Murray dam in Columbia, S.C., Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2015. Despite an improving forecast, it will still take weeks for the state to return to normal after being pummeled by a historic rainstorm." (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
Photo credit above: "Jeanni Adame rides in her boat as she checks on neighbors seeing if they want to evacuate in the Ashborough subdivision near Summerville, S.C., after many of their neighbors left, Monday, Oct. 5, 2015. South Carolina is still struggling with flood waters due to a slow moving storm system." (AP Photo/Mic Smith).
Map credit above: "
…it is a statistical way of expressing the probability of something happening in any given year. A “100 year” storm event has a one in one hundred or 1% chance of happening in any given year. A “500 year” event has a one in five hundred or .2% chance of happening in any year..."
South Carolina Flood is 6th, 1000-Year Rain since 2010. Doyle Rose has the story at USA TODAY; here's the introduction: "The biblical flooding in South Carolina is at least the sixth so-called 1-in-1,000 year rain event in the U.S. since 2010, a trend that may be linked to factors ranging from the natural, such as a strong El Niño, to the man-made, namely climate change. So many "1-in-1,000 year" rainfalls is unprecedented, said meteorologist Steve Bowen of Aon Benfield, a global reinsurance firm. "We have certainly had our fair share in the United States in recent years, and any increasing trend in these type of rainfall events is highly concerning," Bowen said..." (File photo: USGS).
Photo credit above: "A statue in flood waters in the Ashborough subdivision near Summerville, S.C., Monday, Oct. 5, 2015. South Carolina is still struggling with flood waters due to a slow moving storm system." (AP Photo/Mic Smith)
Photo credit above: "Dowser King Faria, a former dairy farmer, during a drought in Marin County, California. February 2nd, 1977". Photo by Bettmann/Corbis.
Photo credit above: "McMurdo Station on Ross Island experiences 24 hours of darkness in the middle of winter. The lights from the largest research station in Antarctica illuminate Observation Hill just to the south of town."
TODAY: Sun fades as clouds increase. Winds: SE 5-10. High: 66
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of showers, heaviest north. Low: 60
THURSDAY: Showers taper, drier PM hours. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 67
FRIDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Wake-up: 48. High: 62
SATURDAY: Lukewarm sun, windy. Winds: SW 15-25. Wake-up: 47. High: 72
SUNDAY: What October? Warm sun. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 57. High: near 80
MONDAY: Windy, turning cooler with lingering clouds. Wake-up: 59. High: 66
TUESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Wake-up: 50. High: 65
Photo credit above: "The number of weather-related loss events has tripled since the 1980s. Inflation-adjusted insurance losses from these events have increased from an annual average of about $10 billion then to about $50 billion over the past decade." Photo: Mark Nolan
Map credit above: "
Photo credit above: "Hunter Baker surveys flood damage to his neighborhood near the flooded Black Creek, following heavy rains in Florence, South Carolina, Monday, October 5, 2015."
Photo credit above: "Overall aerial view shows historic Charleston at the Battery with minor flooding still visible in Charleston, S.C., Monday, Oct. 5, 2015. The Charleston and surrounding areas are still struggling with flood waters due to a slow moving storm system." (AP Photo/Mic Smith).