40 F. high in the Twin Cities on Thanksgiving.
35 F. average high on November 26.
26 F. high on November 26, 2014.
1.3" snow fell at MSP International Airport yesterday.
November 27, 2005: In the early morning a home in Mower County is hit by lightning and burned to the ground, but no one is injured.
November 27, 1994:
A low pressure system produces the first winter storm of the season for
Minnesota. By the early morning hours of the 28th, a swath of snow in
excess of 6 inches had blanketed much of southwest through central into
northeast Minnesota. Snowfall of 6 inches or more occurred south of a
line from Gunflint Lake in Cook County to near Ortonville in Big Stone
County, and along and north of a line from near Blue Earth in Faribault
County to Red Wing in Goodhue County. The snow closed the
Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport for a short time on the 27th,
and contributed to hundreds of accidents and at least three fatalities.
In addition, the build-up of ice and snow in combination with strong
winds resulted in numerous downed power lines in southeast Minnesota.
November 27, 1985: Extreme cold hits northern Minnesota. A low of 30 below zero is reported at Crookston.
November 27, 1971: Heavy snow falls in southwest Minnesota, with Redwood Falls receiving a foot.
"Pacific Vortex": A Year Without a (real) Winter?
Yesterday's
candy-coating of snow may have been an omen of the winter to come. It
would be premature to write off big snowstorms or polar blasts, but I'm
seeing cues in the weather that lead me to believe this may be a typical
winter - for Topeka, Kansas.
November in the Twin Cities is
9.1 F warmer than average, to date. Dr. Mark Seeley predicts this may be
one of the 3 warmest Novembers ever recorded.
Thank (or
blame) El Nino. Record warmth bubbling out of the Pacific Ocean spawned a
Category 4 hurricane off the west coast of Mexico on Thanksgiving Day;
the latest ever recorded. A balmy westerly wind howling from the Pacific
is overwhelming cold fronts oozing across Siberia into Canada. The
coldest air is bottled up to our north, while the main storm track
whisks sloppy storms south of Minnesota.
Expect chilled sunshine today and
Saturday; temperatures a few degrees below average for a change. An inch or two of slush is possible
Tuesday before the next warming trend. No 60s or 70s - but models hint at a few 40s by mid-December.
A pioneer winter this year? I don't think so.
* Image credit above:
Climate Reanalyzer.
Accumulating Snow Monday-Tuesday?
It's still early, but NOAA's GFS model brings a smear of accumulating
snow back into Minnesota by Tuesday of next week, hinting at a
potentially plowable accumulation, especially for far southern
Minnesota. Stating the obvious: we're due. Source: AerisWeather.
Mild Bias Spills into mid-December.
Check out predicted (GFS) 500 mb winds the evening of December 11,
still primarily zonal across the USA, no frigid air showing up across
most of North America. This looks like something out of mid-October.
An Unprecedented Thanksgiving Visitor: A Category 4 Hurricane. Check out another "first" (at least in recorded history) - another symptom of an abnormally warm Pacific Ocean, courtesy of
Weather Underground: "
Remarkable Hurricane Sandra
exploded into a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds overnight, making
it the latest major hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere
(November 26.) The previous record was held by an unnamed Atlantic
hurricane in 1934 that held on to Category 3 status until 00 UTC
November 24. Sandra is also now the latest Category 4 storm ever
observed in either the Eastern Pacific (previous record: Hurricane
Kenneth on November 22, 2011) or the Atlantic (previous record: "Wrong
Way" Lenny on November 18, 1999.) Prior to Sandra, the strongest East
Pacific hurricane so late in the year was 1983’s Winnie, which topped
out on December 6 at 90 mph winds. Sandra is the first major hurricane
in the Western Hemisphere that has ever been observed on Thanksgiving
Day..."
Image credit above: "
VIIRS infrared
satellite image of Hurricane Sandra taken at 3:15 pm EST November 25,
2015. At the time, Sandra was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds." Image credit:
Dan Lindsey, NOAA/CIRA.
One of the 3 Warmest Novembers in Recorded Minnesota History? That's according to climate guru Mark Seeley; here's an excerpt from this week's edition of
Minnesota WeatherTalk: "
Through
the first 25 days of November temperatures have been averaging well
above normal. It is likely that this month will conclude in a manner
that will rank it among the top three warmest Novembers in Minnesota
history, likely falling short of the warmest ever which occurred in
2001. Over 40 communities reported at least one day this month with an
afternoon temperature of 70°F or higher. In all 33 new daily maximum
temperature records were set within the National Weather Service
Cooperative Observer Network in Minnesota, and 145 daily warm minimum
temperature records were set, a remarkably large number. No low
temperature records were set anywhere in the state this month..."
2015: Hottest Year Worldwide Since Records Started in 1880.
Unless another "polar vortex" sets up in the coming weeks (unlikely)
2015 will be even warmer than the previous record: 2014. 14 of the 15
warmest years, worldwide, have occurred since 2000. Here's an excerpt
from
US News: "...
Scientists
at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and
elsewhere already were saying that 2015 likely would be the hottest. The
U.N. agency, NOAA, NASA and Japan's weather agency all say 2014 is the
current record hot year with a global temperature of 14.57 degrees
Celsius, 58.23 degrees F. "I would call it certain," NOAA's chief
climate monitor, Deke Arndt, said on Tuesday. "Something game-changing
massive would have to happen for it not to be a record." Records go back
to 1880. Jarraud also said it is likely that the world has now warmed
by 1 degree Celsius, or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, over pre-industrial
times. That's a symbolic milestone: International leaders have set a
goal of keeping global warming within 2 degrees C, 3.6 F, of
pre-industrial times..."
World Meteorological Organization: 2015 Like to be Warmest on Record; 2011-2015 Warmest Five-Year Period. Here's an excerpt from a
WMO press release: "
The
global average surface temperature in 2015 is likely to be the warmest
on record and to reach the symbolic and significant milestone of 1°
Celsius above the pre-industrial era. This is due to a combination of a
strong El NiƱo and human-induced global warming, according to the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO). The years 2011-2015 have been the
warmest five-year period on record, with many extreme weather events -
especially heatwaves - influenced by climate change, according to a WMO five-year analysis..."
Unprecedented. 96% of American Counties Have Recently Seen a Weather Extreme. Here's an excerpt from Environment America and
Climate Denial Crock of the Week: "
One
reason that polls have been swinging away from climate denial and
toward the need for action on climate, is that more and more Americans
have witnessed first hand an event that they find far enough out of the
ordinary so as to be convincing. Environment America:
Ninety-six percent of Americans live in a county hit by at least one
weather-related disaster in the last five years, according to a new interactive map using
federal government data. Scientists say global warming is already
exacerbating some extreme weather events and their impacts..."
Drilling Down: Weather-Related Weather Disasters in Minnesota.
Hennepin County has experienced 6 weather-related disasters since
August, 2010, while Sibley County has experienced 11. Check out the
interactive map from Environment America.
New Urban Heat Island Study Shows Surprising Variation in Air Temperatures Across Twin Cities.
Which brings up a quandary: how do meteorologists factor in urban
heating into their forecasts? Here's an excerpt of a recent press
release from
The University of Minnesota: "
Some
parts of the Twin Cities can spike temperatures up to 9°F higher than
surrounding communities thanks to the “urban heat island” effect,
according to a new study from the University of Minnesota. The study, which was funded by the Institute on the Environment and published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,
used a network of 180 sensors deployed throughout the Twin Cities
metropolitan area in residential backyards and city parks to paint the
most detailed picture anywhere in the world of how temperature varies
with time and place across pavement-filled metropolitan areas and
surrounding communities..."
Image credit above: "
Brian Smoliak and research fellow Phil Mykleby install a temperature sensor at the Minnesota Landscape Arboretum."
Photo Credit: Angeline Pendergrass
New Urban Heat Island Study Shows Surprising Variations in Air Temperatures Across the Twin Cities.
Meteorologists have been tracking this effect for a long time, and in
certain cases it can make the difference between rain, slush or snow.
Here's a clip from
ScienceDaily: "...
Recording
surface air temperatures every 15 minutes from August 2011 through
August 2014 across nearly 2,000 square miles and using U.S. Geological
Survey data to fine-tune differences at the neighborhood level, the
study uncovered several surprises. Among them: Temperatures in the urban
core of Minneapolis, St. Paul and Bloomington average 2 °F higher in
summer than in surrounding areas The differential spiked as much as 9 °F
higher during a heat wave in July 2012 Urban heat island effect is
stronger at night in summer and during the day in winter..." (Image credit:
Star Tribune).
10 Things Everyone Should Know About Seasonal Affective Disorder.
"SAD" is very real for many people; the dark days of winter can take a
mental and physical toll. Here's a snippet of a helpful article at
Huffington Post: "...
In
most cases, SAD is just a seasonal component of clinical depression or
bipolar disorder, according to Michelle Riba, a professor of psychiatry
and the associate director of the University of Michigan Depression
Center. "For people who see a regular pattern every year of getting sad,
anxious or a cycling of moods, the first thing they need to do is to
see someone to get an overall diagnosis," she said. "They need to treat
the underlying depression..."
A Car Dealers Won't Sell: It's Electric.
The reasons many car dealers aren't more enthusiastic? Hard to say, but
when in doubt follow the money. And yes, that's a RAM 1500 truck in my
garage (which I love). The day Dodge, Ford or Tesla makes an
all-electric pick-up truck with a 300-500 mile range I'll be one of the
first to put down a deposit. Here's an excerpt from an article at
The New York Times: "...
Industry
insiders and those who follow the business closely say that dealers may
also be worrying about their bottom lines. They assert that electric
vehicles do not offer dealers the same profits as gas-powered cars. They
take more time to sell because of the explaining required, which hurts
overall sales and commissions. Electric vehicles also may require less
maintenance, undermining the biggest source of dealer profits — their
service departments..."
This Map Shows What People Are Most Thankful For in Each State. Minnesotans are most thankful for "fall"; Wisconsin residents most thankful for "thunderstorms". Really?
Mother Jones drills down: "
Earlier this week, Facebook's data team crunched the numbers on what users say they are most "thankful" for. The top two overall results were predictably "friends" and "family," which is heartwarming but sort of a snooze..."
TODAY: Chilled sunshine, dry. Winds: N 10-15. High: near 30
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear and chilly. Low: 14
SATURDAY: Blue sky, thawing out a little. Winds: SW 7-12. High: 36
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, seasonably cool. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 17. High: 38
MONDAY: Clouds increase, light snow late. Wake-up: 25. High: 37
TUESDAY: Slushy mix, potential for a couple inches? Wake-up: 30. High: 34
WEDNESDAY: Slick start? Clearing skies. Wake-up: 22. High: 32
THURSDAY: Plenty of sun, turning milder. Wake-up: 24. High: near 40
Climate Stories...
Will We Write Earth's Next Chapter, or it's Obituary? Here's the intro to a story from National Geographic's Editor in Chief at
CNN: "
When
National Geographic first sent some of the world's best photographers
and mapmakers on assignment more than 125 years ago, we didn't set to
capture the "before" photos for an imperiled planet. But that's exactly
what happened. Over the decades, from the Matterhorn to the Great
Barrier Reef to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, these intrepid explorers
became the visual record-keepers of climate change...."
ESA Animations Show 25 Years of Glacier Movement in a Single Second.
Gizmag has the story - here's the intro: "
A
researcher at Switzerland's University of Zurich has combined 25 years
worth of satellite imagery to show the complex behavior of glaciers in a
single second. The effort made use of data collected by NASA's Landsat
satellites, focusing on the Karakoram mountain range in Asia. The
animations were created by glaciologist Dr. Frank Paul, and form part of
the ESA's Climate Change Initiative, which is combining datasets to
build the best possible picture of glacier movement. The GIFs were made
by combining between seven and 15 false-color images taken by three
different Landsat
satellites between the years 1990 and 2015. The glaciers can be seen in
light blues to cyan, with water in dark blue, vegetation in green, bare
ground in brown and clouds in white..."
Canada's New Leadership Reverses Course on Climate Change.
The New York Times reports; here's a clip: "
In less than a month, Canada has executed a complete about-face on global climate change. With the defeat of the Conservatives in the October general election, out went nearly a decade of Canada making itself something of a global outcast on the issue. The record of the former prime minister, Stephen Harper, on climate change was marked by retreat, foot-dragging, and hand-wringing over the economic consequences of moving too quickly. The new prime minister, Justin Trudeau,
and his Liberals are now trying to make up for lost time. And along
with the left-leaning New Democrats, who wrested power from the
Conservatives in the oil-rich province of Alberta last spring, they have now moved climate-change policy to the top of the country’s political agenda..."
Image credit above: "Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with high school students in Ottawa after an information session on climate change." Credit Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press, via Associated Press
Study Drives a Nail into the Global Warming "Pause" Myth. Here's the introduction to a recap at
The Guardian: "
Despite
the organization and funding behind groups which try to cast doubt
about the causes and implications of climate change, the facts have
spoken. The world continues to warm and their favorite myths have died.
We know that human-emitted heat-trapping gases warm the planet. In fact,
this has been known for well over a century. With modern instruments
(like ocean thermometers and satellites among others) we are now
measuring the change. With advanced climate models, we can predict the
changes. The measurements and the predictions are in excellent agreement, despite what cable news and second-rate skeptical scientists say..."
Photo credit above: "
Road markings appear distorted during a heatwave, in New Delhi, India, 27 May 2015." Photograph: Harish Tyagi/EPA.
New Study Finds No "Substantive Evidence" of a Global Warming "Pause".
Chris Mooney reports on a new study that confirms there never was a
warming hiatus - the warming is uneven but NASA data confirms NOAA's
recent findings; here's an excerpt of his story at
The Washington Post: "
Even as Lamar Smith (R-Tx.), chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, continues to investigate a high profile study from federal scientists debunking the idea of a global warming slowdown or “pause,” a new study reaches
the same conclusion — in a different yet complementary way. “There
is no substantive evidence for a ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ in warming,” write Stephan
Lewandowsky, a professor at the University of Bristol in the UK, and
two colleagues in Tuesday’s Nature Scientific Reports. “We suggest that
the use of those terms is therefore inaccurate...”
Image credit above: "
This
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) image shows the
satellite sea surface temperature departure for the month of October
2015, where orange-red colors are above normal temperatures and are
indicative of El Nino." (AFP Photo/Handout/NOAA)
Lamar Smith is Hot and Bothered about Climate Science.
US News
explains the probe of NOAA data and studies on the alleged "pause" and
how it's become just the latest political football in Washington D.C.
Here's an excerpt: "...
Some see a bit of a parallel between the
Soviet-style intimidation and a recent campaign in the House Science,
Space and Technology Committee, where Chairman Lamar Smith has pressed
forward with a probe questioning the processes and findings of a federal
scientific agency – one that has led critics to accuse the Texas
Republican of abusing his power and to warn of a chilling effect on
further scientific research. Smith has demanded via subpoena, public
pronouncements and heated letters that the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration turn over internal emails on global warming
research. The Texas Republican also has sought to bring agency staffers
and NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan into closed-door,
deposition-like interviews..."
Photo credit above: "
House Science Committee Chairman Lamar Smith, R-Texas, has put federal climate scientists in his crosshairs."
Exxon Made Deep Cuts in Climate Research Budget in the 1980s. Following up their 6-part series,
InsideClimate News
has the latest installment on Exxon's climate science research and the
mixed messages they were sending at the time; here's an excerpt: "...
But
several documents uncovered by ICN show that the budget cuts during the
1980s were steep and sudden. The cuts reversed the course that the
company followed in the late 1970s, when top company scientists warned
Exxon's management for the first time of the risks of climate change,
and launched internal research programs unparalleled among its oil
industry peers. ICN provided an Exxon spokesman copies of the documents
being published today and requested any additional information about
climate research spending during the 1980s, the period closely examined
in ICN's series, "Exxon: The Road Not Taken." The spokesman, Alan Jeffers, declined to provide any additional budget numbers..."
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