33 F. average high in the Twin Cities on November 29.
38 F. high on November 29, 2014.
November 30, 2006: Lake effect snow occurs downwind of the larger lakes in Minnesota. Northwest winds from 8 to 12 mph accompanied an air mass in the single digits. This moved over lakes with water temperatures near 40 degrees. A cloud plume from Mille Lacs stretched all the way to Siren Wisconsin. Snow from Ottertail Lake and Lake Lida reduced visibilities at Alexandria to a few miles. Even some low clouds formed from Lake Minnetonka and were observed at Flying Cloud Airport.
November 30, 2000: A surface low pressure system moves into extreme southwestern Minnesota from South Dakota. The heaviest snow reported was in the 6 to 8 inch range, and fell in a narrow band just southwest of the Minnesota River in and around the Canby (Yellow Medicine County) and Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) areas. Northeast winds rising out of the Minnesota river valley up the slopes of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota helped enhance snowfall amounts. The northeasterly winds between 10 and 20 mph were responsible for producing visibilities in the one to two mile range.
November 30, 1991: A storm dumps 14 inches of snow in the Twin Cities in about 12 hours.
November 30, 1896: Bitterly cold temperatures are reported across Minnesota. A low of 45 below zero occurs at the Pokegama Dam. Source: Twin Cities National Weather Service.
March-like Slush Storm;
Plowable Amounts Likely
To paraphrase Stephen King, this storm will NOT be a "carnival of nightmare and death". Meteorological winter, kicking off the coldest 90 days of the year, starts tomorrow - but the maps look more like March. This will be a wet, slushy cement-like snowfall, not prone to blowing & drifting. With temperatures close to 32F the risk of a shoveling-induced heart attack will be higher than usual, but many freeways will be wet and slushy.
Cold snows are more dangerous, more prone to traffic gridlock, since MnDOT chemicals don't work as well below 15F or so.
That said, the first real snowstorm of winter will test nerves and winter weather driving abilities. Models suggest the heaviest bands may set up west of the Twin Cities, closer to Willmar, St. Cloud and Alexandria. I still expect a plowable snowfall; about 4-8 inches for the metro - a better chance of 6-10 inches about 50-90 miles west of MSP.
If you like snow get out and play in it soon, because much of it will be gone by late week as temperatures reach the low 40s.
Long range models predict a milder than average December. Looks like a trend.
* 4 KM NAM guidance displaying accumulated snow totals courtesy of NOAA and AerisWeather.
Reinforcing Minnesota's Brand. We're known for cold and snow (and our amazing lakes, of course) so there's something vaguely reassuring about snow on the last day of November. It's been too mild for too long. Cue winter, at least a taste. The 00z NAM prints out .87" liquid, which translates into 6-8" of heavy, wet, slushy snow by Wednesday morning. Winds will be fairly light through the duration of the storm, meaning little in the way of drifting. Again, this will be more of a classic March (tournament) snowstorm.
...SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... SPREADING TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR A LONG DURATION EVENT. TOTAL SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GLENWOOD TO LITCHFIELD TO FARIBAULT TO ALBERT LEA. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA EAST OF THAT LINE TO THE WISCONSIN STATE LINE...INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GOODHUE COUNTY MINNESOTA AND ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT THAT WILL PRODUCE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. STAY UPDATED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OR WEATHER.GOV FOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS EVENT.
TODAY: Winter Storm Watch Metro Area. Winter Storm Warnings central and southern MN. Wet snow arrives - roads becoming slippery by afternoon. Winds: E 10-15. High: 34
MONDAY NIGHT: Snow, heavy at times. Low: 31
TUESDAY: Snow tapers, 4-8" metro (more west of MSP). Winds: W 8-13. High: 34
WEDNESDAY: Flurries taper, some PM sunshine. Wake-up: 27. High: 38
THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Wake-up: 23. High: 39
FRIDAY: Partly sunny, feels like March. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 26. High: 42
SATURDAY: Milder than average, patchy fog. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 32. High: 43
SUNDAY: More clouds than sun, good travel. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 32. High: 41
* HotWhopper has more perspective and behind-the-scenes details of what's really happening at the Climate Summit in Paris.
Photo credit above: Bill Clark /AP. "Chairman of the Science, Space, and Technology Committee Lamar Smith, R-Texas, is playing a dangerous game with climate change. His strategy is less useful inquiry as it is active indimidation of the agencies and scientists who conduct such study."