Thanks to Jakkie Meyers Wehking for the picture below for the sunset picture over Lake Adley near Parker Prairie, MN on Sunday. Great picture Jakki!
Soggy start to the week, much cooler by late week
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas
I was a popular guy at my son's hockey practice yesterday. I heard several, "Keep it coming, weatherman" comments from parents and fellow coaches. While my ego was getting stroked, I dared not to tell them the extended forecast in fear that I would have to dodge flying hockey pucks instead.
It was another incredible weekend with mild mid-November sunshine and temperatures running nearly 15 to 20 degrees above average! The average temperature in Minneapolis is running nearly 11 degrees above average so far this month! While temperatures will still be running above average to start the work week, it appears that we'll be dodging wind-whipped rain drops through midweek.
Periods of rain, some heavy at times with rumbles of thunder may turn to light snow later this week, especially up north.
If you haven't had a chance to pull out any extra layers out of the back of the closet yet, you might get a chance later this week/weekend as high temps dip into the 30s. Yes, near average for mid/late November. Winter is not far away...
SUNDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy, chance of light rain/drizzle overnight. Winds: SSE 10. Low: 46.
MONDAY: Cloudy, damp and breezy. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 53
MONDAY NIGHT: Scattered showers, rumble of thunder possible. Winds: SE 10-15. Low: 48.
TUESDAY: Periods of rain, rumbles of thunder?. Winds: ESE 10-20. High: 58
WEDNESDAY: Chilly winds. Rain/snow mix up north. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 46. High: 53
THURSDAY: Cold wind. Light snow up north. Winds: WNW 15-25. Wake-up: 32. High: 38
FRIDAY: Feels like late November, snow south. Winds: WNW 5-15. Wake-up: 22. High: 36.
SATURDAY: Chilly sunshine. Extra layers needed. Winds: WNW 5. Wake-up: 27. High: 36.
SUNDAY: Clouds thicken, light snow possible. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 22. High: 36.
This Day in Weather History
1933: Record lows are set in a few locations including Farmington with a low of 11 degrees below zero, Little Falls at 10 degrees below zero, Chaska at 9 below and Milaca at 8 degrees below.
1931: A tornado touches down near Maple Plain in Hennepin County. The tornado damage path was five miles long.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 41F (Record: 68F set in 1953)
Average Low: 26F (Record: -2 set in 1933)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
*Total Daylight: ~9 hours & 32 minutes
*Daylight lost since yesterday: ~2 minutes & 20 seconds
*Daylight lost since summer solstice (June 21st): ~6 hours & 5 seconds
Moon Phase for November 16th at Midnigth
2.0 Days Before First Quarter
Monday Weather Outlook
It'll be another mild day across the region on Monday with high temperatures warming into the 50s once again. Winds will be a little stronger on Monday, which will make it feel a little cooler. Keep in mind that the average high for November 16th in Minneapolis is 41F, we will still be nearly 10F - 20F above across across much of the region.
Monday Weather Outlook
A storm system moving through the middle part of the country will make for a fairly breezy day across the region. By 1pm, sustained winds of 10mph - 20mph will be common across the Plains, with a few wind gusts nearly 25mph+.
Monday Weather Outlook
Scattered rain showers will be likely on Monday across much of the region as moisture begins to spread north. It appears that the heaviest precipitation will hold off until Tuesday, including the potential of a few rumbes of thunder by then.
According to NOAA's NCEP, the rainfall potential through PM Wednesday suggests 1.0" to nearly 1.5"+ possible across parts of the region. Some of these heavier rainfall tallies may be accompanied by a few rumbles of thunder.
5 Day Precipitation Potential
According to NOAA's WPC, the 5 day precipitation forecast suggests 1" to nearly 2" in spots across the region, especially near the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Minneapolis Temperature Trend
Despite the growing rain/thunder chances across the Upper Midwest through Wednesday, temperatures will still be running well above average. However, it appears that colder air (near average temps) will return by the end of the weekend/early next week. Interestingly, extended model runs are suggetsing the potential of even cooler weather pushing in during the week of Thanksgiving... Stay tuned!
Warmer Start to the Week
As we start this 3rd week of November, temperatures will still be quite mild across the eastern half of the country. This warmth will be ahead of a water-logged storm system moving through the middle part of the country this week. The image below suggests 850mb temperatures at 6pm Monday.
Highs From Average Monday
High Temperatures will still be runing nearly 10F to 20F above average across much of the Upper Midwest on Monday. However, it won't be quite as nice as it was on Sunday as cloudy skies and areas of rain/thunder begin pushing north out ahead of a slow moving storm system that will stick around through the middle part of the week.
Highs From Average Friday
Temperatures look to cool pretty significantly by the end the week, however, this cooling should bring us back to near normal levels for the mid/end of November. Keep in mind that the average high in Minneapolis for November 20th (This Friday) is 38F. With that said, enjoy the milder weather while we have it now!
6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook shows cooler weather moving in by this upcoming weekend/early next week. This cooler weather could take us in our Thanksgiving holiday travel... While it appears that temperatures will be cool enough for snow potential leading up to Thanksgiving, the question will be whether or not there will be any storms/moisture around to mess up any travel plans you may have... stay tuned!
National Weather Outlook
Our next storm system moving across the country will be responsible for for heavy rain, flooding potential and strong to severe storms across the Central U.S. through midweek.
Severe Threat Monday
...SUMMARY... SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING ON MONDAY. AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE SHOULD FORM MONDAY NIGHT AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED. ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL SHIFT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TUE. POTENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM AZ/NM TOWARDS THE WRN KS VICINITY. A 100-KT 500-MB SPEED MAX SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK BY 12Z/TUE. A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO CNTRL KS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE...ACCELERATING E TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
Severe Threat Tuesday
...SUMMARY... LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
5 Day Precipitation
Scattered showers and storms will result in heavy rains across the Central U.S. through the week.
Sierra Nevada Snow
This is promising! Take a look at the difference in snow pack from this year to last year. At this time last year, there was hardly any snow in the Sierra Nevada Range, but we're already off to a fairly promising start this year... we'll see if it keeps up!
Thanks for checking in and have a great week ahead! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX