Another Rain/Snow Mix PM Tues/Wednesday; Shovelable Snow North

Wet & Windy Monday Morning

Does anyone else think it's a little odd to be staring out the wind and looking at puddles in December? Good grief! Thanks to above average temperatures across the region, Monday's storm system brought more rain than wintry precipitation to the area. Keep in mind that through December 13th, the Twin Cities was running 10" below average snowfall so far this season. 

Monday Morning Radar

Here was the radar from early Monday. Note how sharp the line of rain/wintry precip was across southeastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. 

 

Satellite of Storm System

This is what the storm system looked like on IR satellite on Monday morning. Note the tight counterclockwise circulation over the Midwest as the storm system was lifting northeast toward the Great Lakes. Interestingly, temperatures in association with this storm were quite warm, so much of the precipitation fell in the form of rain.

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Dreaming of a White Christmas? Move North
By Paul Douglas

On average 3 out of 4 December 25ths in the Twin Cities are "white", with an inch or more of snow on the ground. There can be wild swings from year to year. Christmas 2014 was brown, but 2013 saw 9 inches. Snow lovers of all ages got their Big Gift.

This year may take a minor meteorological miracle to get a whopping inch on the ground at KMSP next Friday morning. I now have serious doubts. The same El Nino signal overwhelming all other signals, circulations and oscillations will dominate weather over North America through the remaining winter. This near-record warming of Pacific Ocean water isn't forecast to fade until spring of 2016.

The next feeble storm arrives Wednesday; the atmosphere warm enough for a sloppy mix at MSP. A plowable accumulation is possible from Detroit Lakes to the Brainerd Lakes area, but amounts in the metro will probably be negligible.

There's little doubt a cold front will trigger a rash of coats and hats within 48-72 hours. Friday's wind chill may dip into single digits. Temperatures rebound, staying above 32F from Sunday thru next week. Sorry Santa.

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MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy, still gusty. Winds: N 5-15. Low: 32

TUESDAY: Overcast, slushy mix arrives at night. Winds: E 10-15. High: 36

TUESDAY NIGHT: Rain/snow mix likely. 1" - 2" snow possible. Winds: ESE 10-15. Low: 34.

WEDNESDAY: Rain/snow mix. 1" to 2" snow possible. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 40

THURSDAY: Mostly cloud, few flakes. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 26. High: near 30

FRIDAY: Coldest day of the week; windchill dips to 5F. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 16. High: 22

SATURDAY: Some sun, late day thaw.. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 12. High: 33

SUNDAY: More clouds than sun. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 23. High: 36

MONDAY: A little rain or drizzle possible. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 29. High: 37.
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This Day in Weather History
December 15th

1971: A snowstorm hits Duluth with 10 inches.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
December 15th

Average High: 27F (Record: 49F set in 1923)
Average Low: 12F (Record: -21F set in 1901)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
December 15th

Sunrise: 7:44am
Sunset: 4:32pm
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Moon Phase
2.3 Days Before First Quarter

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Minneapolis Temperature Trend

Through December 13th, temperatures in the Twin Cities were running nearly 14F above average and was the 3rd warmest (December 1st-13th) on record! It appears that we'll still have much warmer than average temperatures through midweek before we finally cool down to at or below normal levels through the end of the week/ early weekend. However, note that extended model runs are suggesting another surge of above average temperatures through much of next week, just in time for the Christmas holiday.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook suggests warmer than average temperatures for the Midwest from December 23rd - December 27th. This mimics the warmer than average temperature trend through much of next week shown in the graphic above.

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Tuesday Weather Outlook

Although temperatures won't be as warm as it has been over the past several days, much of the Upper Midwest will be dealing with above average temperatures again on Tuesday. Feels like temperatures will be a little cooler due to stronger winds.

Tuesday Weather Outlook

Wind speeds will be picking up across the region through the day Tuesday as our next storm system approaches from the southwest. The good news is that this winds won't be as strong as they were with the system that moved through earlier this week.

Tuesday Weather Outlook

A rain/snow mix will begin to develop later Tuesday as our next storm system approaches from the southwest. It appears that snow will be the predominate precipitation type from the Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota as colder temperatures will be present there.

More Precipitation on the Way

Here's the precipitation outlook from midday Monday to Wednesday night. Note the next surge of heavier moisture moving through the region PM Tuesday/Wednesday. Some of this moisture will be in the form of shovelable/plowable snow, mainly across the Dakotas and northern Minnesota.

Winter Weather Headlines

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...MOST OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DEVILS LAKE TO GRAFTON TO BAUDETTE LINE.

* TIMING...6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Minnesota Snowfall Potential

Here's the snowfall potential through midday Thursday, which suggests nearly 4" to 8" of snow in the purple colors from parts of the Dakotas to northwestern Minnesota and parts of the North Shore. Note that the Twin Cities looks to get missed by much of the appreciative snow once again.

Midwest Snowfall Potential

Here's the Midwest snowfall potential through midday Thursday. Note that some some of the heaviest looks to stay in the higher elevations and into parts of South Dakota

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National Weather Outlook

Here's the latest storm system as it wraps up over the Central U.S. through midweek. Note that some of the heaviest snow will be found from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday, while rain looks fall across the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast States.

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5 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 5 day precipitation outlook suggests heavier rain in the Eastern U.S. with some spots seeing nearly 1" to 2"+, while the heaviest still appears to be in the Pacific Northwest with as much as 4" to 8" of liquid in spots.

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Warmer Outlook For Xmas

Here's an interesting map that shows the temperature anomaly for XMAS eve. Note that the eastern half of the country appears to be MUCH warmer than average, while the western half of the country looks to be cooler than average.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook suggests another bubble of warmer than average temperatures taking over the Eastern U.S. as we head into next week and around the Christmas holiday.

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Paris Climate Deal: 5 Big Issues

Here are the 5 big issues that were brought up and the Paris Climate Summit:

Issue: Keeping the warming of the planet within a “safe” range.

Issue: Ratcheting down greenhouse-gas emissions

Issue: Getting more aggressive action (because current pledges don’t put the world on a path to limiting warming to 2 degrees C, much less 1.5 degrees).

Issue: Adapting to damage that will inevitably occur, even with the pact.

Issue: Who pays?

Read more from the WashingtonPost.com HERE:

Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX