...WINTER STORM BRINGS SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... .A WINTER STORM WILL BRING 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A WINTRY MIX OF FLURRIES...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND SLEET MAY PRECEDE THE MAIN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WHICH ARRIVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH SNOWFALL RATES OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. IN THE AFTERNOON THIS AREA OF INTENSE SNOWFALL MOVES NORTH INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...BUT AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE MINNESOTA IRON RANGE WITH ALL RAIN OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL ENDS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY LINGER INTO THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION RATES...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM WEDNESDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. * WINDS / VISIBILITIES...LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES DURING FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. * IMPACTS...PLAN ON DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...WALKER...PINE RIVER AND BRAINERD. * TIMING...EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES. * VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...INTENSE SNOWFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
Waves of precipitation will move through the region through Wednesday night. Interestingly, warmer air will wrap into the center of the storm (warm enough for rain) near the Twin Cites, which will limit the amount of wintry precipitation and snow that will fall here. The best chance of shovelable/plowable snow will be found across the Dakotas and into northern Minnesota.
December Worms, Rain and Slush; Mild Trend Lingers
By Paul Douglas
I should have taken more psychology classes. Some days I feel like a therapist, whispering sweet nothings into the ears of frustrated Minnesota snow lovers.
John Judkins reports an outbreak of worms in Cottage Grove, in mid-December. Grant Offermann sent me this digital plea: "You gotta help me though, I'm a winter enthusiast and need some snow. My ski's are collecting dust....my Siberian husky is shedding like its spring time again. Give me something to look forward to!"
Uh, I'm just the messenger and the headline remains the same: think Kansas City winter this year. The pattern may shift abruptly next month or February, but the trends are the trends. The Godzilla of El Ninos will probably keep us milder and slushier than average, into March.
To get all-snow temperatures in the lowest mile of the atmosphere should be less than 32F. Once again today there's too much warm air aloft for snow in the metro. Expect mostly rain at MSP; a few inches of slush for central and western MN.
We chill down by late week - but expect 30s to near 40F much of next week. Santa will need his red SUV.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Wintry mix likely. Little to now snow accumulation expected. Winds: E 10-15. Low: 34.
WEDNESDAY: Rain mixes with snow. Wet roads. Little to now snow accumulation expected. Winds: SE turning WSW 10-15. High: 39
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lingering light snow. Turning breezy and cooler. Little to now snow accumulation expected. Winds: W 15-30. Low: 25.
THURSDAY: Few flakes, feels like December. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 28
FRIDAY: Peeks of sun, heavier coats required. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 16. High: 21
SATURDAY: Some sun, feeling better. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 9. High: 29
SUNDAY: Patchy clouds, thawing out again. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 26. High: 39
MONDAY: Drizzle, light mix possible. Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 31. High: 36.
TUESDAY: More drizzle or light rain. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 28. High: 37.
This Day in Weather History
2000: A surface low pressure system tracks east-northeast through Iowa on the 18th and then into western Illinois during the early evening hours. Extreme south central and southeast Minnesota received 6 to 10 inches of snow, including Albert Lea with 10.5 inches, Kiester and Bixby with 6.0 inches.
1972: Fairmont has its fifteenth consecutive day with lows at or below zero degrees Fahrenheit.
1940: A snowstorm hits much of Minnesota. Water equivalent of the snow was 1.27 inches at Winona.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 27F (Record: 58F set in 1939)
Average Low: 12F (Record: -22F setin 1876)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
*Daylight lost since yesterday: ~28 seconds
*Daylight lost since the summer solstice (June 21st): ~6 hours and 49 minutes
Moon Phase for December 16th at Midnight
1.3 Days Before First Quarter
Minneapolis Temperature Trend
6 to 10 day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook suggests above temperatures moving in just before the Christmas Holiday. This outlook also mimics the December 20th - December 24th above average temperature trend in the graphic above.
Wednesday Weather Outlook
Wednesday Weather Outlook
Wednesday Weather Outlook
National Weather Outlook
The storm system moving through the Midwest through Midweek will slide into Canada through the end of the week as a line of showers and even a few storms slide east to the East Coast. In the wake of the storm, colder air will filter in, but only for a brief time. Meanwhile, heavier precipitation continues in the Pacific Northwest.
Severe Threat Wednesday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a MARGINAL risk of severe weather across parts of the Gulf Coast on Wednesday.
...SUMMARY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES WEDNESDAY...A FEW MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. ...SYNOPSIS... MATURE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE MID MO VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL PROGRESS NEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE MS/OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS AND THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...REACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY...ENCOURAGING THE PERSISTENCE OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CONUS.
3 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's WPC, the 3 day precipitation forecast suggests 3 main areas of precipitation through the end of the week. Showers and storms in the east/southeast will bring as much as 1" to nearly 3" of rain to some areas there, while snow and a wintry mix will be found across the Midwest. Heavy precipitation will continue in the Pacific Northwest with as much as 4" to 8"+ possible in spots.
Here's the snowfall potential through PM Friday. Note the fairly large swath across parts of the Midwest as our current storm system wraps up there through PM Wednesday, while some of the heaviest snow will be found across parts of the Cascades and the Northern Rockies as heavy Pacific moisture continues to blow in.
Chilly in the Southwest
Thanks to Aaron Weidner for the picture below who is in San Diego enjoying sunshine and temperatures in the 60s this week. However, temperatures are running a little cooler than average across much of the Southwest in the wake of a large trough of low pressure that brought heavy snow to parts of the Rockies and Central/Northern Plains.
Highs From Average Wednesday
Several locations will be running nearly 10F to near 20F below average on Wednesday with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.
The National Weather Service has issued a number of freeze warnings for parts of the Southwest for Wednesday and Thursday morning for temperatures that will likely dip into the 20s and 30s
...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A HARD FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MST WEDNESDAY.
A HARD FREEZE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...A PERIOD OF WELL BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION. OUTDOOR WATER PIPES MAY NEED TO BE WRAPPED...DRAINED...OR ALLOWED TO DRIP SLOWLY TO PREVENT POSSIBLE BURSTING.
* TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WITH SEVERAL HOURS BELOW 28 DEGREES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY...SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY AND PIMA COUNTY INCLUDING THE TUCSON METRO AREA.
* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 5 AM AND 8 AM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
850mb Temperature Outlook
First building code improvements adopted based on Joplin tornado study
Here's an interesting story from ScienceDaily.com regarding improved building codes in association with the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) study of the EF-5 Joplin, MO tornado from 2011.
Source: National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)
Summary: Protecting schools and their associated high-occupancy buildings from the most violent tornadoes is the goal of the first approved building code changes based on a technical investigation into the impacts of the deadly tornado that struck Joplin, Mo., on May 22, 2011.
Read more from ScienceDaily.com HERE:
The power of an EF-5 tornado is evident in this photo of a truck wrapped around a utility pole in the aftermath of a May 1999 twister in Oklahoma in which wind speeds of more than 500 kilometers (300 miles) per hour were recorded. New code changes based on recommendations from NIST's Joplin, Mo., tornado study will help protect building occupants in areas where such storms are most likely to occur.
Credit: National Severe Storms Laboratory, NOAA
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